Houthis Seize Bab el-Mandeb, Saudi Arabia Caught in a Pincer

Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized Yemen's Red Sea coast and the islands in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Friday, following a lightning offensive that strengthens their grip on this strategic passage linking Europe and Asia.

Neighboring Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, now finds itself caught in a vise, with the Strait of Hormuz, on the other side of the peninsula, having been sealed off by Tehran since the war in the Middle East began.

Saudi authorities also announced the temporary closure of the East-West oil pipeline following the attacks. Since the start of the war in the Middle East, Riyadh had stepped up its use of the pipeline, which connects Abqaiq, near the Gulf, to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, to bypass Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Houthis nevertheless sought to reassure the international community. “Shipping is safe for all companies, with the exception of Saudi vessels, which have already been denied access,” the movement's military spokesman said.

Oil tankers and commercial vessels pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to reach the Red Sea, then the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean, or, in the opposite direction, to reach the Indian Ocean.

If the strait is blocked, the only alternative—much longer and more costly—is to sail around southern Africa via the Cape of Good Hope.

According to the U.S. media outlet Axios, citing U.S. officials, President Donald Trump refused to order strikes against the Houthis, as Riyadh had requested.

The Jerusalem Post reported, for its part, that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had said he was prepared to take part in military operations against the Houthis and help liberate Bab el-Mandeb if an official request were made by the Arab coalition and the Yemeni government.

The hard-liners in the mullahs' regime are reinvigorated

Even as the Iranian and Saudi foreign ministers discussed the situation in the region on Thursday, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Friday hailed the Houthis' latest advance as a “resounding victory.”

The commander of the Basij, the notorious morality police, struck a similar note: “We must set aside our differences and mobilize all our resources to confront the United States and Israel. If the enemy demands surrender or negotiations, talks must be conducted from a position of strength to safeguard our rights.”

This statement once again confirms the gulf separating the regime's hard-line wing—embodied in particular by its highly ideological paramilitary organizations—from the political establishment represented by government officials.

By contrast, the remarks by Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, who is in India for the BRICS diplomatic forum summit, were far less triumphant and optimistic. He said that U.S. pressure on his country had “reached a critical and dangerous stage in recent months,” while also stressing that “the world today is going through a period of unprecedented complexity.”

The aftermath of Ali el-Taher

Regarding Lebanon, an Israeli source told Sky News Arabia that around 50 Hezbollah members had been on Ali el-Taher Hill. Most are believed to have been killed in the bombardment. The same source denied that any Iranians were present on the hill.

Meanwhile, Washington once again dismissed doubts over whether negotiations between Lebanon and Israel would continue. A State Department spokesman said that “both sides are continuing a constructive dialogue and that the next round of talks will be held soon in Rome, in accordance with arrangements made several weeks ago. Discussions are underway in Beirut, Jerusalem, and Washington.”