Today's Essential

The break seems complete, at least at the current stage, between President of the Republic Joseph Aoun and Hezbollah. In response to the smear campaign waged against him by pro-Iranian party circles, who practically treat him as a “traitor” due to the direct negotiations initiated with Israel, the Head of State responded directly to his detractors on Monday, in front of a delegation from Arkoub and Hasbaya. He thus stated, quite aptly and with complete frankness, in a clear allusion to Hezbollah, that “true treason is that of which those who drag the country into war to serve foreign interests are guilty.”

It is now no secret to anyone. Deep differences pit senior Iranian officials against each other regarding the direction that (potential) negotiations with the United States should take. This divide, which is increasingly bursting out into the open, has practically frozen, or even called into question, what some call "the diplomatic option" in the search for a way out of the current conflict. These differences tearing apart the two antagonistic currents within the Iranian regime – the Revolutionary Guards against the so-called "moderate" faction – have practically rendered obsolete the visit that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had begun at the end of the week in Islamabad. Right from the start, this visit by the head of Iranian diplomacy was torpedoed by the president of the national security commission in the Iranian Parliament, who declared that "Araghchi is not entrusted with any mission in Pakistan concerning the nuclear negotiations." He also stressed that "the nuclear negotiations constitute one of the red lines for Iran."

«Historic». The word was found in almost all speeches delivered Thursday evening (overnight in Lebanon) in Washington, on the sidelines of the second round of direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, under American patronage. These talks were held this time at the White House and no longer at the State Department, and what's more, in the presence of the American president himself, Donald Trump, which gave a whole new dimension to the event. Lebanon was once again represented by its ambassador Nada Moawad. In addition to Israel's ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter, several American politicians were present: Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, US Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa (of Lebanese origin), US Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee.

All attention is focused on Washington, where the second round of direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, at ambassadorial level, is taking place at 11 PM Beirut time, while the conflict between Iran and the United States remains stuck in this grey zone of tensions into which it has slipped. A grey zone that can, however, at any moment tip towards escalation or appeasement, if mediators, particularly Pakistan, manage to find an acceptable agreement formula for both parties. For Lebanon, the stakes are considerably higher and revolve around two short-term and long-term objectives: in the short term, it is about obtaining, in a first phase, an extension of the ceasefire. Subsequently – which will be more complicated as long as Hezbollah is not disarmed – it is about obtaining a halt to Israeli acts of violence in the south of the country where Tel Aviv's soldiers continue to build a buffer zone through destruction, as well as a potential withdrawal of these forces, and the release of Lebanese prisoners held in Israel.

While total uncertainty continues to reign over the evolution of the conflict between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran, direct talks between Lebanon and Israel resume this Thursday, April 23, in Washington, in the afternoon (Levant time), under the aegis of the Department of State. An authorized local source indicated on Wednesday that the Lebanese delegation will demand the extension of the ceasefire in the South for a period of one month. The discussions could also focus, in parallel, on the practical organization (calendar, meeting venue, etc.) and the agenda for the upcoming bilateral negotiations.

President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday the extension of the ceasefire with Iran, without setting a new deadline, in order to give Tehran more time to negotiate. He nevertheless said he intended to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports, to the dismay of the Islamic Republic. Writing on his Truth Social platform, the U.S. president said he had decided to “extend the truce until Iran presents a proposal and talks are concluded, one way or another.” He said the decision had been taken in response to what he described as “deep divisions within the Iranian government” and at the request of Pakistan, the main mediator. He also said he had “ordered U.S. armed forces to maintain the naval blockade.” Tehran, which had made the lifting of the blockade a condition for attending the Islamabad talks, did not immediately comment on the extension. According to the semi-official Tasnim news agency, it would respond “at a later stage.”

It is, in many ways, a world turned upside down in the standoff between the United States and the Islamic Republic, with the key question now being whether a second round of talks will take place in Islamabad this Tuesday. On the surface, the Iranian regime – more specifically the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (the Pasdaran) – appears keen to cultivate the perception that it is dictating its terms to Washington as a precondition for resuming negotiations between the two sides. By that logic, it would be the defeated party imposing its will on the victor! Yet, at some point, things must be called by their name and “the truth must be told, however harsh it may be” – in the words of President Béchir Gemayel. In this conflict, it is Iran that has suffered heavy losses to its military, nuclear and economic infrastructure, and it is the Iranian political, military and security leadership has been decimated on a large scale. At the same time, it is the American armada that is effectively encircling Iran, and it is the maritime blockade imposed in recent days that is choking its economy; and it is the United States and Israeli air forces that, over the past 40 days, have dominated the skies, carrying out round-the-clock strikes on key strategic sites across Iran.

Suddenly, in less than 24 hours, what could be perceived as signs of panic manifested themselves on Saturday, April 18, within the Iranian camp, in the form of belligerent behavior and equally aggressive and hateful statements. The most serious development of that Saturday was undoubtedly the ambush laid by Hezbollah militants against a French UNIFIL unit conducting a patrol in the area of ​​the town of Ghandourieh, in the Bint Jbeil district, within UNIFIL's deployment zone south of the Litani River. One French peacekeeper was killed and three others wounded, two of them seriously. President Emmanuel Macron reacted strongly to this attack, clearly placing the responsibility for the shelling on Hezbollah and urging the Lebanese authorities to quickly identify the perpetrators and take the necessary measures against them. This attack against the French peacekeepers was strongly condemned by President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and even the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri. President Aoun and the Prime Minister indicated that they had ordered the judiciary to conduct an investigation to arrest the perpetrators.

For the first time since February 28, Lebanon experienced a day of calm: no Israeli raids, no exchanges of fire on the southern border, and no fighting in the border villages where the Israeli army maintains a presence. The only exception was the Israeli drone attack that killed one person in Kunin, in southern Lebanon. The focus is now on assessing the casualties—who continue to be recovered from the rubble—and the material damage in the southern suburbs of Beirut, as well as in accessible southern towns, to which displaced people have returned en masse. The ten-day truce between Tel Aviv and Beirut, brokered by US President Donald Trump, appears, at first glance, to be a respite in a war that is far from over, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted on Wednesday, since the underlying causes of the armed conflict remain.

A significant new step was taken on Wednesday, April 16, towards restoring Lebanon's autonomy in decision-making, free from any regional dictates. A ten-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon (including Hezbollah) came into effect at midnight on Thursday night, following two telephone conversations that President Donald Trump held in the late afternoon with President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The White House chief himself announced the ceasefire in the early evening during a casual conversation with press correspondents. The announcement of this ceasefire under the auspices of the Trump Administration carries twofold strategic importance: firstly, it consolidates at the highest level the separation of the Lebanese and Iranian aspects of the ongoing conflict, as Tehran has insistently attempted in recent days to place any ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel under its control, with the aim of controlling Lebanon; and secondly, it largely legitimizes and reinforces the Executive's decision to engage in direct negotiations with Israel, with the prospect of a peace agreement between the two countries. President Trump also indicated, after the ceasefire announcement, that he had tasked Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Razin Caine with working towards achieving a lasting Lebanese-Israeli peace. The US president also emphasized his intention to invite President Aoun and Mr. Netanyahu to a meeting at the White House within two weeks.