Will Trump back down to Iranian conditions?

American President Donald Trump stated a few days ago that the Iranian regime has been "pulling the wool over our eyes (the United States and the Western world) for 47 years." One could reasonably add that in the current context, it is essentially public opinion in several Levantine countries that is being misled, particularly given the flood of information on Saturday about the imminence of a "memorandum of understanding" between Washington and Tehran, from which it appears, at least judging by the leaks to the media, that President Trump seems to have essentially given in to Iran's main conditions.

On this Saturday, May 23rd, certain media outlets and satellite channels have continuously bombarded the public, at a frenetic pace, with information and leaks that are contradicted a short time later.

The most striking example was the information provided by the Iranian Foreign Ministry, whose spokesperson indicated in mid-afternoon that "ending the war is an operation that will take time" and that "a quick resolution is unlikely."

Reflecting a hardline position on substantive issues, the spokesperson was careful to assert that the Strait of Hormuz question "does not concern the United States" (sic!) and that the nuclear file will not be addressed in any preliminary agreement on a cessation of hostilities.

This same spokesperson, not hesitating to contradict himself, stated half an hour later that there was a "trend toward rapprochement" with Washington, specifying that an agreement protocol is "in the final stages."

And to further mislead the media and public opinion, this same Iranian Foreign Ministry also noted, at the same time, that "we are very far away, but at the same time we are very close (!), from an agreement with the United States."

The US Position

On the American side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned "a chance" that the Iranian leadership "accepts an agreement" with Washington.

A somewhat surprising statement, given that it should rather be the US Administration that "agrees" to make the concession of concluding an agreement with Iran, and not the other way around. The attitude of senior US officials in recent days suggests that the United States appears to be "begging" the mullah regime to "accept an agreement," thereby giving the misleading perception that Iran is the victor and is imposing its conditions and the concessions the US should make.

In any case, President Trump estimated the chances of an agreement or a resumption of military operations at 50-50, stating that he would only sign an agreement, which he believed was close, if he obtained satisfaction on all the demands presented to the Iranians and if the text "took into account Israel's interests."

His statement on this matter was, however, somewhat contradicted by the leaks to the media concerning the broad outlines of the emerging memorandum which, if they are truly confirmed, would mean that they actually satisfy the Iranian positions in their broad lines, thus marking a clear American retreat in several respects.

The agreement in question would indeed provide, according to information leaked to the media, for a definitive end to hostilities without the nuclear file being addressed, without enriched uranium being transported out of Iran, and without any commitment from the Revolutionary Guards concerning the fate of Iranian proxies and the end of the destabilization campaign in the countries of the region, not to mention that the vital question of political prisoners—numbering in the thousands—and mass executions by hanging of Iranian teenagers and young people appears to be completely ignored.

These provisions, if confirmed, would constitute to a large extent an almost total alignment with the Iranian position and a serious setback for the US Administration.

Trump's consultations

In his various public statements on Saturday evening, the White House chief indicated that he will make his decision on Sunday, May 24, regarding whether to conclude the agreement or resume military operations, after consulting with his closest advisors as well as with the leaders of Gulf countries, Turkey, and Egypt.

Late in the evening, he was also scheduled to have a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

As negotiations intensified to finalize the text of the draft agreement, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was to contact Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Kassem, by telephone to reaffirm the Islamic Republic's "firm support" for the pro-Iranian party, emphasizing in this context that Iran insisted on a ceasefire in Lebanon being one of the clauses of the agreement negotiated with the United States.

This Iranian position, which was added to the momentum of recent regional diplomatic negotiations, prompted Netanyahu to convene the leaders of his government coalition for an urgent meeting scheduled to take place late Saturday evening.

It was in this fevered climate that US official sources indicated overnight that the White House chief should announce his decision on Sunday regarding the draft agreement with the mullah regime.