Iran-United States: false start and tensions in Lucerne

Lebanon was at the center of talks on Sunday between Iran and the United States in Switzerland. While Tehran claimed to have closed the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. Vice President JD Vance delivered remarks in an upbeat tone, President Donald Trump responded to the strait's closure with threats against Iran, prompting the Iranian negotiators to suspend the discussions. As for Lebanon, all eyes are on the direct negotiations with Israel, which have drawn the ire of Hezbollah.

Sunday, June 21: the start of U.S.-Iran talks in Lucerne, Switzerland. The American delegation was led by Vice President JD Vance, and the Iranian delegation by Parliament Speaker Mohammed Ghalibaf. After a false start — the talks had originally been scheduled for Friday at the same venue — they finally got underway two days later. They were far from smooth, once again laying bare the deep divisions between the former adversaries.

On the surface, the negotiating session featured plenty of handshakes and smiles, particularly among the Americans, Qataris, and Pakistanis. JD Vance's remarks were optimistic. "President Trump has asked us to turn a new page in order to transform our relationship with the Iranian people," he said, pointing to "significant progress made in recent hours."

The first session was marred by diplomatic friction, as the Iranians refused to be photographed with the American delegation — and made a point of keeping Mr. Vance waiting by deliberately arriving late to the meeting room.

On substance, the Lebanese question was at the heart of the talks, according to reports that reached the media suggesting the issue carried considerable weight in the discussions. In stark contrast to Vance's upbeat words, President Donald Trump posted a blunt message on his social media platform, warning that Iran must "immediately stop supporting its proxies" — including Hezbollah — or else "we will strike very hard."

Shortly afterward, the American president told Fox News that he had warned unnamed Iranian officials overnight against closing the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that he could "take control of it." These firm positions sparked sharp tension inside the meeting room and led the Iranian delegation to walk out.

In Lebanon, Iran's stance gave Hezbollah a new boost. The party "must take advantage" of Iran's support, declared Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah.

The pro-Iranian party reserved its harshest criticism on Sunday for the direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, with a new round expected to take place on Tuesday in Washington.

"American diktat," "capitulation" — a party statement spared no words in condemning the continuation of direct negotiations initiated by the Lebanese authorities on behalf of Lebanon, which are nonetheless set to proceed in Washington with both political and military delegations.

Sunday evening, Tel Aviv sent a conciliatory signal to Washington, from which it had appeared to be drifting in recent times: Israeli Channel 12 reported that the Israeli army would be prepared for "limited" withdrawals from southern Lebanon. Was this a goodwill gesture toward the Lebanese authorities, or part of the broader negotiations between Iran and the United States?

A week full of twists and turns

The previous week had ended with an announcement by the American president of an imminent deal with Iran. He was able to head to France for the G7 having secured what he considered a diplomatic victory. The agreement was signed online by the American and Iranian presidents on Wednesday evening.

Trump was in Versailles attending a dinner hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron on the sidelines of the G7, where leaders welcomed the agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as what they called a "unique opportunity" to get Iran to give up its nuclear arsenal.

The terms of the agreement were leaked to the media on that same date, before any official announcement had been made. Under the deal, both parties agreed to an "immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon," and committed to no longer initiating war against each other while respecting each other's territorial sovereignty. The text references a renewable 60-day window to reach a final agreement. The American naval blockade would be lifted, and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened within 30 days.

One of the most significant and contentious points in the text is the commitment by the United States and its "regional partners" to draw up a reconstruction and development plan for the Islamic Republic with a budget of "at least $300 billion."

The United States would end "all types of sanctions" against Iran, while the Islamic Republic reaffirmed that it "will not acquire or develop nuclear weapons," with both countries agreeing to resolve the fate of enriched uranium stockpiles still located on Iranian soil.

The US Treasury would be required to "issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil and derivative products," and the United States committed to "making fully available and usable the funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran that are frozen or subject to restrictions."

Finally, the final agreement, once reached, "will be enshrined in a binding UN Security Council resolution" — a longstanding Iranian demand.

The terms of this agreement were almost universally seen around the world as far more favorable to Iran than to the United States, given that Iran obtained on paper everything it had asked for, while all the clauses that matter most to the US remain to be negotiated during the 60-day period — and are therefore still uncertain, particularly on the nuclear issue. Trump denied that a single cent would be paid to Iran until the country had fulfilled all of its commitments.

The Iranians, for their part, did not hold back in claiming victory. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's response to the memorandum of understanding came on Friday in the form of a blessing wrapped in skepticism, as he suggested that his approval did not mean his views aligned with those of the other party. Mojtaba Khamenei remained, as ever, elusive and out of sight.

Finally, it should be noted that despite Pakistan's diplomatic success, Qatar's role in these negotiations is becoming increasingly apparent: when the deal appeared to be in jeopardy during the week — largely due to Israeli strikes in Lebanon — a visit by Qatari mediators to Iran is said to have been decisive.

Lebanon: a regional bargaining chip or a sovereign state?

The text of the Iran-US agreement makes no clear mention of ballistic missiles or Iranian influence in the region. On the contrary, the text allows Iran to reassert its hold over the Lebanese card, as it managed to insert the Lebanese ceasefire as an essential condition for the agreement to take effect — even as Lebanese authorities are conducting their own separate negotiations with Israel in Washington, and even though the United States has repeatedly insisted on keeping the Iranian and Lebanese files separate.

Tehran's attachment to its protégé Hezbollah shows no signs of weakening: the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament went so far as to acknowledge that the Lebanese Shia movement had fought for 104 days on Iran's behalf, while Iran itself only fought for 38 days… an unbreakable bond that neither side is trying to conceal anymore.

That was without accounting for Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who, while welcoming the ceasefire, strongly reaffirmed Lebanon's determination to negotiate on its own terms and reclaim its sovereignty.

This week also dealt a blow to Hezbollah and its allies on Saturday, when former minister Sleimane Frangieh — their preferred presidential candidate — and one of his most vocal associates, Mahmoud Comati, were hit with US sanctions. This would appear to be Washington's way of signaling that, despite its willingness not to jeopardize the deal with Iran, its priorities in Lebanon remain unchanged.

On the ground in the South

Meanwhile, on the ground in southern Lebanon, the intensity of the fighting did not let up throughout the week, and even escalated toward the weekend. The Israeli military and Hezbollah traded accusations of ceasefire violations. Israeli troops continued their attempts to seize the strategic hill of Ali Taher in Nabatieh, inflicting multiple casualties on the Lebanese side while also losing soldiers of their own.

On several occasions, Iran threatened to freeze negotiations if Israeli attacks in Lebanon did not stop. It was at this point that differences of opinion between the Israelis and Americans came into full view, with Washington applying strong pressure on Tel Aviv to respect the ceasefire — a highly unusual scenario in the relationship between the two allies.

In the end, it was not until Saturday evening that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formally ordered his military to "halt operations" in Lebanon, while reserving the right to retaliate at the slightest provocation from Hezbollah and warning that a withdrawal from territories occupied during the conflict was not on the table.

The ceasefire that had come into effect still appeared very fragile on Sunday: despite an outward calm, some Israeli violations were reported, while Israeli forces announced the discovery of a large tunnel beneath the village of Majdelzoun, near Tyre.

Statements from Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir all pointed toward a possible resumption of hostilities at the first opportunity.