Negotiations: the USA and Iran play for time

The past week can be characterized by procrastination in the US-Iran negotiations, where no major breakthrough was observed despite two Iranian proposals that the Pakistani mediator forwarded to the United States.

Until then, many analysts argued that Iran was playing the time card, through the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, against a Donald Trump who would be in a hurry to end the war, before having to answer to Congress after 60 days of war, as required by the US Constitution.

But since then, there has been a turnaround: it is the American blockade on Iranian ports that is putting pressure on Tehran. The consequences are visible in the very significant devaluation of its national currency and an economic collapse that the Iranian authorities can hardly hide, despite their triumphant rhetoric.

At the same time, the American president was able to bypass the obstacle of Congress this week by considering that given the ceasefire since April 7, the days of war are not counted as 60 but as 38. Is time therefore running out more for the Iranians than the Americans now?

While the week had begun with an American refusal of a first Iranian proposal, Iranian negotiators sent a second one to the United States on Friday via the Pakistani mediator.

The conditions put forward remain almost identical to the first: a one-month deadline to settle the main outstanding issues, a definitive cessation of hostilities on all fronts, notably in Lebanon, an adjournment of the nuclear talks, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, compensation for war damages and a release of frozen Iranian funds…

"Iran has not yet paid a high enough price"

Donald Trump responded to this proposal with skepticism (even though the official American response has not yet been given).

In front of reporters at the White House, he said he was not "satisfied". Then on his Truth Social network, he wrote: "Iran has not yet paid a high enough price".

And even if the last few days have been marked by a wait-and-see attitude on the front of the Iran-US negotiations, the sound of boots has not completely disappeared. Thus, towards the end of the week, the Iranian army itself deemed a resumption of fighting with the Americans "probable", accusing them once again of not respecting any agreement.

For its part, the American site Axios relayed information according to which the US Central Command for the Middle East had prepared a plan for short-duration and high-intensity strikes on Iran, in case it was necessary to unblock the negotiations.

The Israelis, unhappy since the beginning of this truce in the fighting, are not to be outdone: on Thursday, their Defense Minister Israel Katz said that his country could act again against Iran.

Exorbitant cost at all levels

This week also saw the reappearance of another key player in the Middle East, who had kept a low profile until now: Russian President Vladimir Putin, who hosted Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last weekend, had a phone conversation with Donald Trump this week.

The Kremlin announced that Putin had outlined to Trump the serious consequences that a new military campaign against Iran would have.

In any case, this war launched on February 28 has a cost at all levels. Globally, the rise in fuel prices is forcing governments around the world to take measures to limit the damage, and is weighing on all sectors: a glaring example this week is that of an American airline that grounded its planes.

For the United States, this conflict has cost $25 billion so far, according to Pentagon estimates.

A cost for Iran obviously, which is beginning to show signs of running out of steam. And for China too, indirectly, which imported a large part of its oil from Iran at a preferential price.

Another consequence of the war in Iran is the frantic continuation of arrests of opponents and executions. This week, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights denounced 21 executions and nearly 4,000 arrests in Iran since the start of the previous conflict.

Reports on the Revolutionary Guards' fears concerning a potential new popular uprising due to economic difficulties are multiplying in the media.

Also within Iran, it is worth noting a report published this week by Reuters showing the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' grip on the country from now on, with a weakened Supreme Leader.

The Lebanese scene, victim of the clash of agendas

Parallel to the wait-and-see attitude in the Iranian dossier, the Lebanese scene is boiling on several levels. It remains marked by tensions between the camp that remains attached to Iranian influence, and the official Lebanese authorities who are trying to extricate the country from this stranglehold, at the risk of being subjected to increasingly insistent American pressure.

These tensions were illustrated this week by the failure of a scheduled meeting at the Baabda presidential palace between President of the Republic Joseph Aoun, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri (also head of Amal, a Shiite movement allied with Hezbollah) and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, to discuss the modalities of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, which began in the first week of March.

The hesitation came from Berri, who had previously shown his preference for indirect negotiations, estimating in an interview with the newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat that "it is not justified to negotiate under Israeli fire".

President Aoun, for his part, is facing intense American pressure for a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. He continues to refuse it, however, as long as the ceasefire is not total, saying he prefers, according to Baabda sources to MTV, that the "photo" Washington is looking for eventually crowns an agreement, not precedes it.

Faced with internal pressures, the president clearly stated this week that he would reject "a humiliating agreement for Lebanon".

On the American side, impatience is being felt. Donald Trump mentioned, in one of his untimely statements, that an Aoun-Netanyahu meeting would take place "within two weeks".

But the most insistent pressure came from a statement by the US Embassy in Beirut on Thursday, which highlights "the possibility for Lebanon to secure concrete guarantees of full sovereignty, recovery of its entire territory, security of its borders, humanitarian support, and reconstruction assistance" from the United States, if it accepts such a meeting.

The text speaks of a "historic opportunity".

There is no doubt that President Aoun is at the heart of all the tensions, just like Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.

They are regularly the target of increasingly orchestrated and virulent smear campaigns by the "Resistance's public".

This week, a report by Israeli intelligence services, relayed by Israeli media, spoke of "potential" threats to the life of the Lebanese president due to his commitment to direct negotiations with Israel.

A threat "that Baabda takes seriously", according to its sources to Lebanese media, but which "will not make the president back down in his initiative to save Lebanon".

"Angry Birds" and violence in the South

Joseph Aoun is therefore clinging to his principles to weather the storm, which is also raging from within.

Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc released a particularly virulent statement this week, denouncing the "decline" of the Lebanese authorities in their commitment to negotiations with Tel Aviv, accusing them of "submitting to American dictates".

The tensions have also spilled over into the virtual realm: a parodic animated video published by the LBCI channel showing Hezbollah leaders, notably Naim Qassem, its secretary general, as "Angry Birds" characters, caused a great stir among the "Hezbollah public" and numerous insults.

The latter lashed out against Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai, victim of a smear campaign that crossed all possible red lines, and which was condemned by the three branches of power.

This nervousness at Hezbollah's base is explained in particular by the situation in the south of the country: the week was extremely violent, with a growing number of airstrikes, bombings, dynamiting of entire villages and deaths.

Even if Israel also seems caught in a quagmire, the damage is miniscule on its side compared to that suffered by Hezbollah and the Lebanese population.

On Sunday, a call for the evacuation of eleven more villages was once again launched by the Israeli army.

Noteworthy this week was a request by Netanyahu, during a phone call to Trump, to expand operations in Lebanon. A request rejected by the American president who does not want to jeopardize the negotiations on the two dossiers.

The latter "advised" the Israeli Prime Minister to stop destroying buildings in Lebanon because it "harms Israel's image".