New failed assassination attempt against Trump; long week of delays in Islamabad

The negotiations between Iranians and Americans, which are in limbo after this long week of back-and-forth in Islamabad, were overshadowed Sunday morning (Levant time) by the news of a failed assassination attempt on US President Donald Trump at the White House Correspondents' Dinner. President Trump, in an initial gut reaction, indicated he did not know whether the war in Iran is linked to this assassination attempt.

The White House Correspondents' Association dinner, an annual tradition, was expected to unfold peacefully in the presence of President Donald Trump, members of his administration, and numerous political figures. But a (new) assassination attempt against the most powerful man in the world took place in this prestigious, highly secure environment of the Washington Hilton. A man armed with 'multiple weapons', according to initial reports, was able to bypass all security barriers to approach the hall where practically all the country's top leaders were gathered, and open fire.

The incident left two injured, including an officer, and the man was captured alive: he is a 31-year-old American teacher from California, Cole Thomas Allen. The lone wolf theory seems to prevail for the moment, but others cannot be ruled out. During a press conference he held shortly afterwards at the White House, Donald Trump stated that he did not yet know whether the war with Iran was connected to the attack. He nevertheless insisted that this would not push him to give up on this war.

Deadlock in Islamabad

Far from this incident, the past week was marked by missed appointments in the negotiations between Iran and the United States. Early in the week, all eyes were focused on the April 22 deadline, the last deadline in the ceasefire conceded by Trump to the Iranians two weeks earlier. At a time when the Iranians announced their refusal to travel to Islamabad for a second round of negotiations, a surprise came from Washington just hours before the deadline expired: the US President himself announced the extension of the ceasefire with Iran 'until further notice' in order to give negotiations a chance. Interpretations of this decision were varied: was the American president feeling trapped by this war, or was he preparing a surprise attack?...

The week passed to the rhythm of statements from both sides, notably from the Iranian side, which persists in refusing to attend negotiations that lead 'nowhere'. Clearly, the Iranians, furious about the blockade imposed by the United States, continue to resist American demands concerning ballistic missiles, nuclear energy, and armed proxies in the region... However, reports of serious dissensions between the centers of power in the Iranian regime are beginning to emerge, culminating in the resignation of the Iranian Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Calibaf, from the negotiating delegation. Is this American reprieve aimed at allowing time for these dissensions to settle?

On Friday, the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, traveled to Islamabad, taking care to specify that he was only going there to hold talks with his Pakistani counterparts. He actually conveyed a new Iranian roadmap intended for the Americans, the content of which prompted President Trump to cancel the trip of his two envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, to Pakistan, clearly signaling that he would only greenlight this trip if the Iranians showed more involvement in these talks.

On the level of military operations, the American blockade of Iranian ports continues, and it appears to be effectively asphyxiating what remains of the Iranian economy, hence the growing aggressiveness of the Revolutionary Guards, whose rhetoric of threats against the US military and neighboring countries is crescendoing. The Strait of Hormuz remains de facto closed, with all the foreseeable consequences for the global economy.

In this context, an incident involving Iraq was reported on Saturday: while the ceasefire has loosened the grip on the Gulf countries, targets of Iranian missiles since the beginning of this war, drone strikes, presumably from a pro-Iranian group in Iraq, hit border posts in Kuwait. Although Iraqi authorities strongly condemned the incident, it showed the lack of control Iraqi leaders have over the militias still operating on Iraqi territory.

Second round of negotiations at the White House

The week in Lebanon was more eventful than in Iran, particularly on the diplomatic front. The second direct Israeli-Lebanese meeting took place on Thursday in Washington, once again between Lebanese Ambassador Nada Moawad and Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter. This second meeting, however, took on a different dimension from the first, as it took place at the White House, in the Oval Office, rather than the State Department, and what is more, in the presence of President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and the US Ambassador to Beirut, Michel Issa.

What can be taken away from this meeting, described as 'historic', is the extension of the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel for a period of three weeks (Lebanon had asked for 60 days), as well as an announcement by Trump, who indicated that ending Iranian funding to Hezbollah would become a 'non-negotiable' condition in the Iranian-American negotiations.

Beyond this moment, the continuation of these direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel raises several question marks: how far can Lebanese President Joseph Aoun go, knowing that the American president seems in a hurry to achieve a diplomatic success, insisting once again on the need to bring Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu together at the White House, an eventuality that the former continues to rule out? How can Joseph Aoun bypass the strong opposition of the Shiite duo to these negotiations?

In any case, the Lebanese president expressed his determination to continue on this path 'to save the country' and to restore the Lebanese state's full sovereignty over decisions of war and peace, as he emphasized during his participation in a European summit in Cyprus on Friday.

On the domestic scene, Hezbollah continued its verbal attacks against these negotiations, asking the state to put an end to them. For his part, the Speaker of Parliament and head of Amal, Nabih Berri, declared in essence this week that he is not against the negotiations, but that he prefers them to be indirect.

Consultations in Cyprus

The diplomatic ballet concerning the situation in Lebanon was also intense this week. In Cyprus, President Aoun held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and other Arab leaders. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam was received at the Élysée on April 25, and his speech in Luxembourg before the Council of Europe matched the firmness of tone of President Aoun's in Cyprus. As for the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, he was received by President al-Sharaa in Damascus on Saturday. Furthermore, the Saudi role was revived this week with the mission to Beirut of the envoy Yazid bin Farhan, following a visit by an envoy of Mr. Berri to Saudi Arabia a few days earlier.

In any event, attention is focused on a meeting scheduled for Monday among the three pillars of Lebanese power, Joseph Aoun, Nabih Berri, and Nawaf Salam, at the Baabda Palace, to discuss the modalities of the negotiations, according to information from al-Jadeed. Will it be the beginning of a united common front on this issue, or will it cement the existing dissensions?

Resumption of raids in the South

Regarding the situation on the ground in South Lebanon, the week ended with the position of Mr. Netanyahu, who gave the order to the Israeli army to attack Hezbollah positions in Lebanon 'with force'. The IDF air force immediately resumed its raids against facilities of the pro-Iranian party in the southern region of the country, without, however, extending its attacks deeper and to the southern suburbs. On Saturday night, fifteen raids were thus carried out. Airstrikes continued throughout the day on Sunday, notably in the Nabatieh and Bint Jbeil regions.

The end of the week was further marked by an Israeli drone attack that claimed the life of a journalist from the pro-Hezbollah daily al-Akhbar, Amal Khalil, in the village of al-Tiri, in the Bint Jbeil district. This tragedy was particularly poignant as the journalist, along with a colleague, was pursued by the drone into the house where she had taken refuge, and rescue workers were prevented from reaching her for several hours. Lebanon is expected to file a complaint with international bodies, according to the Minister of Information.

Two other serious incidents took place, moreover, in Greater Beirut on Saturday evening: a brutal intervention by State Security against a generator owner (an official in Saad Hariri's Future Movement) in the Sakiet al-Janzir neighborhood ended in riots and road closures in several Sunni neighborhoods of Beirut. The officer who led the State Security unit that engaged in this untimely intervention is close to Hezbollah, which explains the popular revolt witnessed in the Sunni neighborhoods. Following this tension, the government commissioner to the military court opened an investigation and interrogated the officer in question and the security service agents involved in the case.

Another serious incident occurred on Saturday evening: the assault suffered by a municipal agent of Fanar and the priest of the Fanar parish at the hands of two Hezbollah supporters, causing intense tension among the population of this Beirut suburb. The two attackers were apprehended and handed over to the Internal Security Forces' Intelligence.