War in Iran: New Clouds on the Horizon

It is once again the familiar stop-start pattern of diplomacy in the Iran conflict. After recent statements by American officials suggesting – yet again – the imminent prospect of a “deal” with the Islamic Republic, fresh storm clouds gathered on Tuesday evening.

Late in the evening, President Donald Trump said he had received a report from U.S. military command indicating that Iranian fire had brought down an American Apache helicopter on Monday night in the Strait of Hormuz, while it was conducting a patrol in the area. The pilot and co-pilot were rescued unharmed by U.S. military teams after a two-hour search operation.

“The United States must respond to this attack,” the White House chief said.

Shortly after Mr. Trump’s statement, American officials told The New York Timesthat “it is not clear whether negotiations with Iran will resume following President Trump’s announcement that he is committed to retaliating for the helicopter crash.”

In concrete terms, the American response to Monday evening’s Iranian attack is very likely to be limited, both in scope and duration. It would nonetheless help sustain, and possibly intensify, the climate of tension and mistrust that has come to define the Iran conflict.

That tension was reflected in remarks made 48 hours ago by Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament (who heads the negotiating team with Washington), who not only stressed that the Islamic Republic “does not trust the United States” but also, bluntly – and not for the first time – described the United Sates as an “enemy.”

In any case, all indications suggest that the Trump administration has no intention, at least in the current context, of engaging in a new large-scale confrontation with Iran. This is what likely led Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to say, during the latest meeting of the restricted security cabinet, that Israel “may be forced to face Iran alone.” Mr. Netanyahu also noted that “the battle with the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah” is not over.

Joseph Aoun Takes a Harder Line on Iran

On the military front, the Israeli air force operations continued at pace on Monday, with raids targeting Hezbollah positions and ammunition depots in several villages in southern Lebanon. At the same time, the Israeli army said it had killed a Hezbollah militiaman who had crossed the border from Lebanon and who, it said, appeared to have intended to infiltrate a locality in northern Israel.

In parallel, Israeli forces issued an evacuation order for the city of Tyre on Monday, including the Christian quarter, where armed elements linked to the pro-Iranian party have reportedly taken position. In this context, Christian political figures issued an urgent appeal for the demilitarization of the area.

On the political front, the Lebanese presidency published a transcript of the second part of President Joseph Aoun’s interview with CNN. The head of state reiterated his criticism of Iran’s conduct in Lebanon, stressing that Beirut seeks to maintain cordial relations with Tehran “but on the basis of mutual respect and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs,” while accusing the Iranian regime of “interference in Lebanon’s internal affairs.”

Regarding Hezbollah, President Aoun said “it is time for the state to replace militias,” arguing that the Shiite community “is tired” and must be offered an alternative “through strong public institutions.”

Addressing the issue of the party’s weapons, Mr. Aoun said that “the war in Lebanon should have ended in 2000” following Israel’s complete withdrawal from the security zone it controlled in southern Lebanon. He pointed out that, after this withdrawal, Hezbollah “made strategic mistakes.”

Referring also to direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, President Aoun reaffirmed the Lebanese authorities’ desire to bring a definitive end to the state of war between the two countries.