US–Iran: For Tehran, fall in line – or else…
The defining feature of this round of talks and negotiations set in motion earlier this week by the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran is, without question, “suspense.” The formal launch of the process is scheduled for Friday in Switzerland, with the participation, among others, of US Vice President JD Vance and the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament – who also leads Iran’s negotiating team – Mohammad Ghalibaf.
At this stage, suspense centers on the content of the memorandum of understanding agreed between Washington and Tehran. Only the Iranian “version” of the document has been made public. It is clearly one-sided, appearing to reflect primarily the demands of the Iranian regime. On the American side, officials say the framework agreement will be released to the media on Friday, after the official signing ceremony.
From the outset, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday that the bilateral negotiations, expected to last 60 days and be renewable, will focus on the nuclear issue and sanctions. This is where a second layer of suspense emerges, given the sharply divergent positions of the two sides on the core disputes that divide them.
In an interview with the New York Times, U.S. President Donald Trump clarified the American position, as it is expected to take shape gradually over the course of the talks. He said that if the Iranian regime continues to execute dissidents, he would suspend the unfreezing of Iranian assets, estimated at $24 billion. More broadly, Trump made clear that there would be no lifting of sanctions or release of frozen assets unless Teheran fully complies with and implements its commitments.
The “guardian of the Middle East”
Stepping up his warnings against the Islamic Republic, U.S. President Donald Trump has revived the threat of military action and strikes on Iranian infrastructure if a final agreement on the nuclear program is not reached. Pressing the point further, he said bluntly that if such a deal is not approved, the United States would, in that case, assume the role of “guardian of the Middle East,” in return for what he described as 20 per cent of the region’s revenues.
On Lebanon, the White House chief made what could be seen as a diplomatic misstep, saying in another interview that he was considering proposing that Israel allow Syrian President Ahmed Sharaa to take charge of dealing with Hezbollah in Lebanon. “He might be able to do it better than Israel,” Trump added. The Syrian president swiftly rejected the idea, saying there could be no question of Syrian forces intervening in Lebanon.
Four drone strikes in southern Lebanon
Meanwhile, Israeli officials have reiterated over the past 48 hours that the army will not withdraw from Lebanese territory until the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons has been resolved. Until then, military operations continue in southern Lebanon, albeit at a lower intensity than before the announcement of the memorandum of understanding.
Israeli forces have concentrated their strikes in the Nabatiyeh sector, particularly around the strategic hill of Ali Taher. Separately, the Israeli military carried out four drone strikes on Tuesday against vehicles in the Mayfadoun and Choukine area, in the Nabatiyeh district. The targeted attacks killed four people and left several others wounded.