Diplomacy under fire: Trump threatens Tehran with new strikes

Tensions continue to rise in the region but remain, for now, under control. It seems as though Tehran and Washington — which are continuing to exchange messages through Pakistani mediators — have opted for a new tactic: diplomacy under fire.

It is through this lens that the military actions launched by Iran in the region over the past forty-eight hours are being viewed today.

Strangled by the maritime blockade Washington has imposed on its ports, the Islamic Republic — which had until now been playing for time — has no option left but the military one to ease the pressure bearing down on it from two directions. The first concerns the direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiations toward a peace agreement. If concluded, such a deal would inevitably end Iran's grip on Lebanon through Hezbollah, at a time when Tehran is pushing to have the Hezbollah file placed on the agenda of any potential talks with Washington, in order to dictate its own terms. The second relates to its own negotiations with the United States over a lasting ceasefire.

By shooting down a US Apache military helicopter on Tuesday as it patrolled the international waters of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran escalated its confrontation with the United States, which responded swiftly by carrying out two waves of strikes against air defense systems and radar installations around the strait, according to American outlet Axios. A series of explosions rang out through the night along Iran's southern coastline.

According to the US military's Central Command (CENTCOM), these were "self-defense strikes, ordered by the commander-in-chief" — a reference to President Donald Trump.

Iran responded by launching attacks against US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait.

"Imminent strikes"

Although he has not abandoned the diplomatic option, the US president — who had repeatedly insisted that a "good" deal with Tehran was nearly within reach — struck a radically different tone on Wednesday. He came across as threatening, signaling that he is well aware of Iran's game and has no intention of being drawn into it.

During a press conference at the White House, Mr. Trump reaffirmed his intention to "strike Iran again today," on Wednesday, and said he was considering a large-scale attack targeting power plants and bridges. He issued these threats after denouncing Tehran's duplicity.

"We're going to hit them, hit them very hard. We were really close to a deal, but they keep playing games, they're making fools of us," he declared from the Oval Office.

On his Truth Social platform, he had written a few hours earlier that Iran "took too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them," and that it "will now have to pay the price" — this coming just the day before, prior to the Apache incident, when he had announced that a "very, very good deal" was coming within "two to three days." "Iran is all talk and no action. The tyrant of the Middle East is DEAD!!!" the US president added, underscoring that the Iranian military had been devastated.

Yet Iran's military retains its capacity to cause harm, as demonstrated by the overnight missile strikes against Israel from Monday to Tuesday. That attack came in response to Israeli raids on Beirut's southern suburbs on Sunday, themselves launched in retaliation for Hezbollah strikes on northern Israeli territory.

The escalation can be readily attributed to the mullahs' regime, which had threatened Israel with retaliation in the event of an offensive on the southern suburbs, while the Israeli state had promised strikes on the Hezbollah stronghold should the pro-Iranian group continue its attacks on Israeli soil.

Feeling wronged by the Washington-brokered Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire agreement, and likely pushed by its Iranian patron, Hezbollah did not hesitate to fire rockets toward Galilee, triggering an Israeli response, followed by an equally anticipated Iranian counter-response.

Despite the escalation, tensions remain contained, as evidenced by the ongoing Qatari mission in Tehran, carried out in coordination with Washington. Yet the fire smolders beneath the surface. Will Donald Trump follow through if Tehran continues to stall? On that note, it was reported late Wednesday evening that Iran had rejected a Qatari proposal to arrange a meeting with the United States to discuss points of disagreement.

For now, the Islamic Republic is simply demonstrating that it remains torn between two factions. The first, hardline, is embodied by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), while the second, more moderate, is led by Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian.

While Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is close to the IRGC, raised his tone against Washington on Wednesday, President Pezeshkian set himself apart with a widely noted speech in which he advocated for dialogue. His remarks drew attention not only because it was clear he was addressing the Pasdaran, but also because of his reference to former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, "for whom dialogue is the only possible way out of the state of neither war nor peace in which Iran finds itself." This was an indirect call to follow the path laid out by the Iranian leader who was killed last February in an Israeli-American strike on Tehran.

Free rein in Lebanon

On the Lebanese front, however, there is no indication that Hezbollah will heed Pezeshkian's words, as the group takes its orders directly from the Pasdaran. Further rocket fire toward Israel could prove costly, however, as the Israeli military now has free rein to respond immediately with strikes on the southern suburbs, without consulting political authorities. This decision, taken on Monday by the restricted military cabinet, shows that the logic of immediate military response is currently prevailing, without necessarily having any influence on the processes already underway. It is as though each side is testing the other's red lines.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun thus reaffirmed on Wednesday his determination to "go all the way" in direct negotiations with Israel.

On the ground in Lebanon, military operations remained limited on Wednesday to the south of the country, where the Israeli army killed two individuals by targeting their vehicle in Sidon. The two have yet to be identified. In Kfarchouba, it "abducted two men who had approached the area where Israeli soldiers are conducting operations (...) and took them to Israel for questioning," according to a statement sent to AFP.