Today's Essential

The moment is, without a doubt, historic in more ways than one: symbolically, first; and in terms of the political impact and strategic dimension of the event, secondly. The symbolic aspect, first, is of particular importance in the local and regional context that no one ignores: Lebanon's Ambassador to Washington, Nada Hamadé Moawad, meeting face-to-face at the State Department in Washington with Israel's Ambassador, Yechiel Leiter, under the auspices of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with the Lebanese, Israeli, and American flags side by side in the background… The image would have been political fiction just a few months ago.

This is the first direct consequence of the failure of the Islamabad negotiations last weekend between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. On Monday, at 5 p.m. (Beirut time), the naval forces of the American army implemented a total blockade of all Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz. Several warships have been deployed to enforce this blockade, which applies to all ships expected to use Iranian ports, whether departing or arriving. Only ships carrying humanitarian aid will be allowed to dock in ports, but after being thoroughly searched. As for vessels not involved in maritime traffic with Iran, they will be able to cross the Strait of Hormuz unhindered.

Marathon day for American and Iranian negotiators and experts, Saturday, in Islamabad. Arriving Friday evening in the Pakistani capital, the two delegations immediately began, each on its own side, informal discussions with high-ranking Pakistani officials who reportedly exchanged messages between the two parties to pave the way for formal, face-to-face negotiations, which began Saturday in the early afternoon. Late in the evening, the two delegations completed two successive working sessions and announced a suspension of work that was to continue on Saturday night (which, in this type of situation, opens the way for discussions away from the spotlight) or on Sunday.

In a surprise move late Thursday, April 9, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced, following a meeting of the country’s security cabinet, that he had instructed his government to initiate direct negotiations with Lebanon without delay. He also took the opportunity to publicly welcome a decision by his Lebanese counterpart, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, whose cabinet, meeting Thursday at Baabda Palace, approved a resolution mandating the Lebanese army and security forces to prohibit any illegal armed presence in the Beirut governorate. The move effectively seeks to enforce the principle of the state’s monopoly over arms.

A torrent of iron, fire, and blood – unmatched in recent years, except for the August 4 explosion at Beirut’s port – rained down Wednesday across Beirut, its southern suburbs, and countless towns and villages throughout Lebanon. According to initial figures from the Lebanese Ministry of Health, more than 180 people were killed and nearly 800 injured in a wave of simultaneous Israeli airstrikes, which struck roughly a hundred targets nationwide in just ten minutes. The attacks came even as a regional two-week truce had been announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, coinciding with the opening of Washington-Tehran negotiations on a comprehensive agreement aimed at a lasting cessation of hostilities.

The deadline given by US President Donald Trump to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to restore free maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz expires today, Tuesday, at 8 PM Washington time (overnight, Middle East time). Failing that, President Trump could give his green light to a very large-scale strike against Iran. Late Tuesday afternoon (Beirut time), heavy suspense reigned in all the capitals of the region regarding the course events might take. An agreement could be reached in the final fifteen minutes, especially since throughout the day on Tuesday, April 7, the White House kept the door open for a resumption of negotiations, but it was unclear whether the Iranians had softened their position.

US President Donald Trump increased pressure on Tehran by threatening Iran with total destruction. "The entire country could be destroyed in a single night, and that night could well be tomorrow (Tuesday)", the American president said during a press conference. Trump had set a Tuesday evening ultimatum before bombing energy infrastructure in Iran. He stated that he was not "worried" about the risk of committing war crimes when a journalist questioned him about his threat to destroy power plants. « The "war crime" would be to let Iran acquire nuclear weapons », the president retorted, referring to the mullahs' regime's repression of demonstrations: "They kill protesters. They are animals".

It was, of course, to be expected… Wielding the threat of a deluge of fire that could soon fall upon Iranian strategic infrastructure, President Donald Trump reminded the leaders of the Islamic Republic that the last 10-day deadline he had given them to endorse the 15-point plan presented by Washington expires in 48 hours (i.e., Monday) or to ensure free maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. “Iran has 48 hours before facing hell,” President Trump declared. Saturday evening, April 4, no indication yet allowed for forecasting a possible breakthrough capable of avoiding a large-scale escalation in military operations, but last-minute twists are obviously not to be excluded in this kind of situation.

All attention remains focused on this new phase towards which the region seems resolutely to be heading, given Tehran's clear refusal to initiate a dialogue with Washington, based solely on the conditions set by the Trump administration for a halt to the military offensive launched on February 28. It must be said that nothing official has been announced on this subject so far by the Islamic Republic, whose leaders have already indicated that Washington's 15-point proposal is unworkable and excessive, and that they themselves have conditions for a dialogue. Among these conditions are, notably, an end to targeted attacks and assassinations in Iran, as well as solemn guarantees that the offensive will not resume. Tehran would also demand respect for “Iranian sovereignty” over the Strait of Hormuz, which it presents as a “right”.

The ten-day deadline Washington had given Tehran to respond to the fifteen conditions for a cessation of hostilities expires on Sunday, with no concrete sign of a possible de-escalation on the horizon. Positions, on the contrary, seem to be hardening, as the United States and Iran sharpen their weapons in anticipation of a possible new phase of the military conflict and confusion still reigns regarding possible talks between the two states. The violent reaction of the Islamic Republic to President Donald Trump's eagerly awaited speech to Americans on Wednesday evening, coupled with counter-threats, reveals the difficulty of the mission undertaken by mediators to push the two main belligerents to initiate a dialogue.