The evolution of the conflict linked to the outcome of the internal struggle in Iran
While total uncertainty continues to reign over the evolution of the conflict between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran, direct talks between Lebanon and Israel resume this Thursday, April 23, in Washington, in the afternoon (Levant time), under the aegis of the Department of State. An authorized local source indicated on Wednesday that the Lebanese delegation will demand the extension of the ceasefire in the South for a period of one month. The discussions could also focus, in parallel, on the practical organization (calendar, meeting venue, etc.) and the agenda for the upcoming bilateral negotiations.
Regarding military operations and the situation on the ground, the French presidency indicated on Wednesday afternoon that a second French UNIFIL peacekeeper died from injuries sustained last Saturday when Hezbollah militiamen fired on a French patrol of the UN force. One of the peacekeepers was killed instantly. The toll of this ambush therefore stands at two killed and two wounded among the French soldiers.
On a completely different note, the Israeli army perpetrated a new aggression against journalists on Wednesday by bombing an area of the town of El-Tire (Bint Jbeil district) where the two colleagues Amale Khalil and Zeinab Faraj were located. Zeinab Faraj, lightly wounded, was evacuated by the Lebanese Red Cross following steps taken by President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (from Paris), and Minister of Information Paul Morcos. As for Amale Khalil, her lifeless body was found under the rubble of a house destroyed by the Israeli bombing.
Furthermore, an Israeli drone carried out an attack against the locality of Yohmor where four people were wounded.
An Israeli soldier punished for desecrating a cross
On a completely different note, an American NGO The Good Samaritan delivered food and humanitarian aid to the inhabitants of Christian villages located near the Lebanese-Israeli border. This same NGO had tried to deliver this aid from Lebanon, but it had been prevented by Hezbollah. It was therefore forced to provide the aid in question from Israel due to the precarious situation of these Christian villages which were visited on Wednesday by the Apostolic Nuncio in Beirut.
In this context, it should be noted that the Israeli soldier who desecrated a cross in a Christian village in the South was punished by his command and sentenced to one month in prison. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli army command strongly condemned the incident and the Israeli unit present in the sector was tasked with restoring the cross to its place.
Divergences between the poles of the Iranian regime
Regionally, the armed conflict between the United States and Iran continues to live at the pace of a series of ceasefires punctuated by deadlines, ultimatums, and recurring threats that mark President Donald Trump's daily stances. Once is not customary: the new ceasefire extended on Tuesday evening by the White House chief is not associated with a precise deadline. This 'vagueness' (yet another one...) does not mean that the truce is unlimited but implies, on the contrary, that President Trump reserves the right to break it at the moment he deems opportune.
According to some information, Washington would have also informed Israel that the current truce will expire next Sunday, if no progress is recorded in American-Iranian talks by then. American circles in Washington are optimistic about an Iranian breakthrough, giving the impression that the US Administration seems to be 'imploring,' in a way, the Iranian regime to endorse a way out of the crisis, even though it is Tehran that is supposed to be in a position of weakness. A detail to note in this regard: according to some online media, hundreds of military transport planes are currently transporting and unloading ammunition in Israel, and this airlift should end... next Sunday.
In any case, this heavy uncertainty characterizing the evolution of the conflict could be explained by the deep divergences confirmed within the Iranian regime. The divide opposes the hardline represented by the Revolutionary Guards (the Pasdaran) and the so-called 'moderate' current which brings together official political leaders in charge of negotiations with the Americans. This explains why Iranian negotiators were unable to travel to Islamabad for the 2e round of negotiations, which was scheduled for Tuesday.
The outcome of this internal fracture will determine the future of the conflict and undoubtedly the fate of the entire Levant region.