Amid Tehran’s “Caprices”, Uncertainty Surrounds Second Round in Islamabad

It is, in many ways, a world turned upside down in the standoff between the United States and the Islamic Republic, with the key question now being whether a second round of talks will take place in Islamabad this Tuesday. On the surface, the Iranian regime – more specifically the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (the Pasdaran) – appears keen to cultivate the perception that it is dictating its terms to Washington as a precondition for resuming negotiations between the two sides.

By that logic, it would be the defeated party imposing its will on the victor! Yet, at some point, things must be called by their name and “the truth must be told, however harsh it may be” – in the words of President Béchir Gemayel. In this conflict, it is Iran that has suffered heavy losses to its military, nuclear and economic infrastructure, and it is the Iranian political, military and security leadership has been decimated on a large scale. At the same time, it is the American armada that is effectively encircling Iran, and it is the maritime blockade imposed in recent days that is choking its economy; and it is the United States and Israeli air forces that, over the past 40 days, have dominated the skies, carrying out round-the-clock strikes on key strategic sites across Iran.

Despite these realities, the Iranian regime – through its hardline faction – had been demanding until Monday evening, as a condition for “agreeing” (!) to travel to Islamabad, that the United States lift its maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the official Iranian news agency IRNA, along with sources close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, repeatedly stated on Monday – and indeed since Sunday – that Iran refused to take part in a second round of talks with the Americans, and that, in any case, the ballistic missile issue was non-negotiable. They further insisted that deep disagreements persisted over the nuclear file and the fate of enriched uranium. They added that “the American side is not serious in this negotiation process.”

In simplified terms, the Iranian regime thus behaves like a spoiled child, ranting and raving and making incoherent statements when confronted with an authority acting with firmness and imposing a course of action that runs counter to its childish whims. Yet, to its detriment, the hardline faction in power in Tehran is now faced with an American president who reiterated late on Monday that he would not lift the maritime blockade, despite a request from the Pakistani mediator to do so.

More broadly, President Trump does not appear to be backing down from his red lines, particularly on the nuclear file and the ballistic missile program. The European Union aligned itself with the US position on Monday evening, stating bluntly that talks with the Iranian regime must address the ballistic missile issue, given that such missiles could potentially reach certain European capitals…

In this context, the White House is presenting Tehran with a “simple” choice: sign the agreement put forward by the United States or face the stick, to be used without restraint. As a result, late on Monday evening, complete uncertainty still surrounded the fate of the second round of talks in Islamabad.

New Lebanese-Israeli Meeting Set for Thursday

Tensions, which had been steadily escalating until late on Monday evening, did not prevent the Trump administration from pressing ahead with the process of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel. President Joseph Aoun appears determined to continue along this path, under US auspices, without dwelling too much on the direct threats – including death threats! – issued by senior Hezbollah officials, who appear unable to accept that the state has regained autonomy in its decision-making and has broken a long-standing taboo by engaging in face-to-face talks with Israel.

“Between war and negotiation, I choose negotiation,” the head of state said on Monday. This position is expected to be at the heart of talks Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is due to hold on Tuesday with President Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée Palace.

It is in this context that a second meeting between Lebanese and Israeli negotiators is expected to take place next Thursday in Washington. Concrete issues are set to be discussed during this new round of talks, most notably the settlement of the dispute over the delineation of the border between the two countries. The Lebanese delegation to this second meeting would be headed by former Lebanese ambassador to Washington, Simon Karam, who could be accompanied by a military representative and a civilian official.

Despite objections from Iranian power centers, which continue to seek to exert influence over Lebanon’s political map, the executive has opted to oppose what the president described as “suicidal impulses” – a pointed remark clearly alluding to Hezbollah’s futile and destructive military ventures. May this leadership hold firm and see this bold negotiating process with the Israeli state through to its conclusion.