Negotiations with Israel would put Aoun's life in danger

The standoff between the Lebanese presidency and Hezbollah – and President Joseph Aoun’s resolve to press ahead with direct negotiations with Israel under Washington’s auspices – is reportedly placing his life at risk.

The warning surfaced over the past 24 hours from an unlikely source: Israeli intelligence services. A report aired by Israel’s Channel 12 cited a military intelligence briefing indicating that “the involvement of the Lebanese president in direct negotiations with Israel could endanger his life.”

According to local broadcaster MTV Lebanon, the information is being taken seriously at Baabda Palace, the seat of the presidency. Even so, Aoun appears unwilling to back down from his commitment to pursuing an agreement with Tel Aviv aimed at ending the conflict into which Hezbollah has drawn the country.

Did these warnings weigh on the meeting that the head of state, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam were due to hold on Wednesday in Baabda to discuss the framework for negotiations? Early in the day, reports circulated of Berri’s “hesitation”. It later became clear that he would not be heading to the presidential palace, under the pretext of “Israeli escalation in southern Lebanon.” The three leaders had spoken by phone the previous day.

The reasons the tripartite meeting in Baabda – postponed indefinitely – failed to take place on Wednesday remain unclear. To what extent did the security threat play a role? Was it the real motive behind the pretext of Israeli escalation invoked by Berri? A more plausible reading is that the speaker’s hesitation stemmed primarily from his reluctance to take a clear position on direct negotiations, a stance that could place him in an awkward position. Berri, who also heads the Amal movement, an ally of Hezbollah – even if he occasionally distances himself through his statements – has already signaled his preference for indirect rather than direct talks. Any meeting with the president could therefore be interpreted as a marked departure from the militia ally, potentially undermining the delicate balancing act maintained by the veteran Lebanese politician since the outset of the conflict, particularly amid preparatory Lebanese-Israeli talks in Washington.

Another notable development on Wednesday was a report by local broadcaster MTV Lebanon of “coordination between Baabda and the U.S. Embassy regarding the tripartite meeting at the presidential palace.” If confirmed, it would point to yet another sign of U.S. involvement in managing this delicate phase in Lebanon.

“Antoine Lahd,” Once Again

For his part, President Joseph Aoun continues to be the target of a smear campaign seeking to hold him responsible for the apparent failure of the ceasefire in southern Lebanon. This comes even as supporters of the so-called “axis of resistance” had attributed its establishment, on April 16, to Iran. It would therefore appear that, for Hezbollah and its allies, success is necessarily credited to Iran, while failure is laid at the door of the Lebanese state.

So-called “resistance” voices are increasingly openly labelling Lebanese officials – and the president in particular – as “traitors who have ceded land to the Zionists,” a phrase frequently circulating on social media. Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah, who has increasingly acted as the movement’s spokesperson in its attacks against the head of state, once again on Wednesday compared him to Antoine Lahd, the former commander of the South Lebanon Army in the 1980s until Israel’s withdrawal in 2000. A particularly humiliating statement, suggesting that Israel is seeking to install a puppet in Lebanon, despite the stated intention of the president and the Lebanese government to pull the country out of Iran’s sphere of influence.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah continues to lose ground in southern Lebanon, even if it has managed – notably through the use of drones – to inflict losses on its Israeli adversary. The defining image of the past 24 hours is a video released by the Israeli army showing the detonation of a large tunnel belonging to the Lebanese militia in the village of Kantara. The blast was strong enough to trigger a slight seismic tremor recorded in Lebanon.

The Israeli escalation in southern Lebanon has been increasingly evident over the past few days. Other areas, particularly Beirut, have remained spared since the ceasefire. However, particularly deadly strikes were carried out over the past 24 hours. Three Civil Defense rescue workers in the Tyre region, entire families, as well as a soldier and his brother, were killed.

“No More Mr. Nice Guy!”

On the Iranian-American negotiations front, there have been no major breakthroughs over the past 24 hours. Statements from U.S. President Donald Trump – still numerous – have continued to escalate, culminating in a thunderous “no more Mr. Nice Guy” on Wednesday at midday. Speaking alongside King Charles III, Trump claimed that “the United States has clearly won the war against Iran.”

On his Truth Social platform, the U.S. president posted an image of himself mimicking a rifle shot and accused Iran of being “unable to make decisions or sign a non-nuclear agreement.” He added: “It would be better for them to get smart soon.”

The explanation for Iran’s slow response to U.S. demands may lie in a major report published by Reuters on Wednesday. The document suggests that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has taken control of war-related decision-making, with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s role limited to endorsing their decisions. The issue, therefore, is not only the lack of unified positions and decision-making in Iran, but also the irreconcilability between U.S. demands and the concessions the Pasdaran are willing to make. According to Pakistani sources – the main mediator – Reuters reports that even the simplest response from Tehran now takes two to three days, with Ahmad Vahidi, a commander of the Revolutionary Guards, currently playing a central role.

Reuters also cites Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat and Iran expert, who argues that neither side is truly willing to engage in dialogue: the Revolutionary Guards fear appearing weak in the eyes of the Americans, while Washington is constrained by considerations ahead of the midterm elections. This helps explain the ongoing delays.

The prospects of the war in Iran remain uncertain. According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. president convened his national security officials to make clear that the military must remain prepared for “a long blockade.” The newspaper also reports that he expressed frustration with Tehran’s latest proposal, which seeks to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and defer nuclear negotiations to a later stage. President Trump, for his part, believes he can compel Iran to suspend uranium enrichment for 20 years, followed by strict limitations thereafter.

As for the war’s objectives and possible trajectory, divisions between the United States and Israel are increasingly coming into the open – although they have long existed. While the Trump administration is focused on pressuring the Iranian regime, Israeli officials have not abandoned the prospect of regime change. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar made his position clear on Wednesday, saying: “If we find a way to change the regime in Iran, we will act.”

Meanwhile in Iran, arrests of dissidents continue at an accelerated pace, as if to compensate for the regime’s growing paralysis. According to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, 21 people have been executed and more than 4,000 detained since the start of the conflict.