The Iranian camp is multiplying belligerent behaviors and aggressive declarations

Suddenly, in less than 24 hours, what could be perceived as signs of panic manifested themselves on Saturday, April 18, within the Iranian camp, in the form of belligerent behavior and equally aggressive and hateful statements.

The most serious development of that Saturday was undoubtedly the ambush laid by Hezbollah militants against a French UNIFIL unit conducting a patrol in the area of ​​the town of Ghandourieh, in the Bint Jbeil district, within UNIFIL's deployment zone south of the Litani River. One French peacekeeper was killed and three others wounded, two of them seriously. President Emmanuel Macron reacted strongly to this attack, clearly placing the responsibility for the shelling on Hezbollah and urging the Lebanese authorities to quickly identify the perpetrators and take the necessary measures against them. This attack against the French peacekeepers was strongly condemned by President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and even the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri. President Aoun and the Prime Minister indicated that they had ordered the judiciary to conduct an investigation to arrest the perpetrators.

Faced with the gravity of this attack, Hezbollah denied responsibility for the ambush targeting the French peacekeepers that evening. This denial fooled no one, especially those in official circles.

In parallel with this militia incident, Hezbollah did not hesitate, on Saturday, to issue direct death threats against the centers of power, particularly the President of the Republic, whose televised address on Friday provoked the ire of the pro-Iranian party. Senior officials within this group have notably gone so far as to warn the head of state against continuing the process of direct negotiations with Israel, emphasizing that the president risks suffering the same fate as former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, assassinated after Egypt signed the peace agreement with Israel. These same Hezbollah sources also criticized President Aoun for not having "thanked Iran" (!) for its (alleged) efforts to establish a ceasefire.

Amidst these boundless threats, one of the pro-Iranian party's officials demanded that the government reverse all decisions taken against Hezbollah, or, failing that, "a popular movement will bring down the government!"

A Yellow line

The fact remains that these apparent signs of panic do not change the reality of the situation. An official Lebanese source indicated late Saturday that President Aoun and the Prime Minister held a meeting to review preparations for the upcoming Lebanese-Israeli talks.

On the ground, the Israeli army reported the establishment of a "yellow line" south of the Litani River – similar to the one in Gaza – which represents a de facto "demarcation line" separating the buffer zone established by Israel from the rest of Lebanese territory. This demarcation line would allow the Israelis to prevent Lebanese residents from accessing the buffer zone, which encompasses more than fifty villages and towns, some of which have been completely razed. In this context, the Israeli army is continuing its military operations and targeted bombings south of this "yellow line" in order to prevent the re-establishment of Hezbollah militants in this area under the guise of the return of "residents."

A Standoff Over the Strait of Hormuz

The clearly perceptible escalation in Lebanon, driven by Hezbollah, is in line with a parallel escalation in Iranian positions—or rather, those of a (radical) Iranian faction—focused primarily on the Strait of Hormuz.

In this context, significant disagreements appear to characterize the relations between the various factions within the Iranian regime. This division emerged on Saturday following a statement from the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announcing the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as a gesture of goodwill aimed at facilitating negotiations with Washington. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs' initiative was apparently not appreciated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The Deputy Foreign Minister (not the Minister himself) immediately reversed course regarding the strait, and later that day the IRGC announced the complete closure of the maritime passage to protest the continued US naval blockade. Later in the afternoon, sources within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were expected to release a flurry of statements, indicating that Tehran had informed the Americans that it rejected holding a new round of negotiations under Pakistani auspices, which impliesThis appears, at least on the surface, to be a rejection of Pakistani mediation. Indeed, the Pakistani army commander, who had been leading the mediation efforts, left Iran on Saturday after a three-day visit.

Sources within the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) also emphasized that Iran refuses to relinquish its ballistic missiles and opposes any concessions on the nuclear issue. This hardening of Iranian positions has been accompanied by a military escalation. IRGC fast attack craft opened fire on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament to declare that disagreements with the Americans over Hormuz had led to "armed clashes, and Washington backed down."

Faced with this Iranian escalation and the radicalization of Tehran's positions, the US military announced at the end of the day its intention to seize all Iranian commercial vessels starting Sunday. The question at this stage is whether the hardening of the Iranian camp's stance, both in Lebanon and Iran, reflects a sense of panic in the face of current developments or is simply a desire to raise the stakes on the eve of a possible resumption of bilateral negotiations next week. On this point, President Trump stated late last night that "very positive discussions are underway with Iran." However, a senior US official asserted that "war with Iran could resume in the coming days."