USA-Iran: A frozen power struggle against a backdrop of Iranian division

All attention is focused on Washington, where the second round of direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, at ambassadorial level, is taking place at 11 PM Beirut time, while the conflict between Iran and the United States remains stuck in this grey zone of tensions into which it has slipped. A grey zone that can, however, at any moment tip towards escalation or appeasement, if mediators, particularly Pakistan, manage to find an acceptable agreement formula for both parties.

For Lebanon, the stakes are considerably higher and revolve around two short-term and long-term objectives: in the short term, it is about obtaining, in a first phase, an extension of the ceasefire. Subsequently – which will be more complicated as long as Hezbollah is not disarmed – it is about obtaining a halt to Israeli acts of violence in the south of the country where Tel Aviv's soldiers continue to build a buffer zone through destruction, as well as a potential withdrawal of these forces, and the release of Lebanese prisoners held in Israel.

It is around these elements that discussions will take place at the White House and no longer at the State Department, according to the Axios website, where Lebanon's ambassador, Nada Moawad, is to demand, on instructions from Beirut, an extension of the ceasefire that came into effect last Thursday and whose duration is only ten days. She was also to demand that, during this truce, the Israeli army suspend its targeting of homes, hospital and educational establishments, places of worship, and journalists. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will be present at the meeting, alongside the Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors who are expected to be received by President Trump.

In the long term, the Lebanese authorities hope to conclude an arrangement with Israel, which may be called a peace agreement or something else – it is still too early to say – whose main purpose is to shield the country from new wars.

By initiating direct dialogue with Israel, the government is taking a path certainly fraught with pitfalls but one that is essential to free the country from the state of dependence on Iran into which Hezbollah had plunged it. For once, the Lebanese government has room for maneuver, allowing it to act solely in the interest of the Lebanese, without being forced, under the impetus of Hezbollah and its allies, to prioritize the strategic calculations of various parties.

It is moreover from this sole perspective that the Hezbollah outcry against the ongoing diplomatic process must be approached. Its success will mark the end of the satellite state and the emergence of a sovereign state, if the government sees its sovereignist initiative through and holds firm against the obstacles that the pro-Iranian axis will undoubtedly place in its path.

Apparently designated as the group's spokesperson, Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah held another press conference on Thursday to warn against the resumption of direct talks with Israel. In addition to the usual thinly veiled threats, he played on emotions in his speech, dwelling on the admittedly cowardly and condemnable targeting of journalist Amal Khalil, killed on Wednesday in an Israeli strike on el-Tiri, in the Bint Jbeil district.

His remarks, like those of his leader, Naim Kassem, tend to distort reality to claim the role of hypothetical savior in a catastrophic situation for which their organization is solely responsible and, above all, to defend the pseudo-legitimacy of an abnormal state they wish to perpetuate. They primarily highlight the gap between two logics: one that seeks to keep Lebanon prisoner of cross-border strategic interests, Hezbollah having sufficiently demonstrated that it obeys only orders from Tehran, and the other, led by the Lebanese government, which consists of taking the necessary initiatives and measures to protect Lebanese citizens from the dangers to which Hezbollah exposes them.

In this context, President Joseph Aoun reaffirmed, during the Council of Ministers on Thursday, his willingness to travel to Washington for discussions with President Donald Trump concerning the Lebanese-Israeli dossier, emphasizing the importance of this meeting for future events, particularly for the reconstruction of Lebanon. He did not comment on Mr. Trump's remarks who had announced his desire to invite his Lebanese counterpart and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for discussions in Washington, but on his X account, the Presidency of the Republic indicated that Joseph Aoun 'never considered contact with Netanyahu'.

In this process of re-establishing Lebanese sovereignty, Lebanon is supported by the majority of Lebanese and by the Arab and international community. Saudi Arabia, which is closely following the dialogue between Beirut and Tel Aviv and remains concerned about a revitalization of Lebanon, has dispatched an emissary to the Lebanese capital. The Advisor to the Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prince Yazid bin Farhan, held a series of discussions with officials, including the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berry, an ally of Hezbollah. During his talks, the Saudi envoy emphasized the need for the implementation of the Taif Agreement, which among other things provides for the disarmament of all militias, and sounded out his Lebanese hosts regarding the dialogue with Israel.

Qalibaf's resignation?

This is taking place to the rhythm of exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah, which uses this nebulous 'resistance' to launch not rockets, but drones, against northern Israel. In the area delimited by this famous Yellow Line, a fictitious demarcation supposed to mark the limits of the Israeli army's operational zone, it is as if the war has not stopped. The Israeli army, however, operated outside this zone on Thursday evening, targeting a car on the Choukine road (Nabatiyeh district), killing three individuals.

On the side of Iran and the United States, the impression is that not much is happening for the moment, as the two adversaries seem to observe each other from a distance, and defy each other to see who will yield first. The only information that broke this routine of pressures is that of a possible resignation of the Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Qalibaf from his position as head of the negotiating delegation. It was reported by Israeli media and has not yet been confirmed by official Iranian sources. If it proves to be true, Qalibaf's resignation will have above all demonstrated the extent of divisions within the Iranian establishment.

For now, the standoff between Tehran and Washington still revolves around the Strait of Hormuz, controlled by the Islamic Republic, and the American blockade of Iranian ports. Iran announced that it has begun collecting transit fees from cargo ships it allows to cross the strait, while Donald Trump announced he had ordered the US Navy to target minelayers.

«The first revenues from Strait of Hormuz transit fees have been deposited into the Central Bank's account,» said Hamidreza Hajibabaei, Vice-President of the Iranian Parliament, according to Tasnim news agency.

At the same time, the Pasdaran announced that they had taken control of two cargo ships in the Sea of Oman, in what appears to be a reaction to the requisition, by the US Navy, of an Iranian commercial vessel.

On his Truth Social network, Donald Trump affirmed having ordered the navy to «shoot down any boats, no matter how small (...) that are laying mines» in the Strait of Hormuz.

«Our minesweeper boats are clearing the strait right now. I order here that this activity continues, but at triple its current level,» he added.

It remains to be seen how long this logic of calibrated pressure followed by Iran and the United States will last. Are they awaiting any breakthrough in efforts to resume discussions in Islamabad? If both agree to prioritize diplomacy in their power struggle over nuclear and ballistic weapons issues and, on the Iranian side, Lebanon - which Washington rejects - they give the impression of having a less clear vision on the outcome of a resumption of military operations.

Only Israel, which regularly claims to have its finger on the trigger, seems to have a clear idea on the subject. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Saar affirmed on Thursday that Tel Aviv «is only awaiting the American green light to eliminate the Khamenei dynasty and bring Iran back to the Stone Age».