Israel’s Post-Election Political Deadlock Deepens

An unexpected twist has emerged in Israel in the aftermath of the elections, whose results—confirmed on Thursday by the counting of the “double-envelope” ballots used notably by military personnel and diplomats—point to a political deadlock that Israeli media describe as “total”: Tel Aviv suspects Qatar and Turkey of having channeled substantial funds to Israeli Arab parties to mobilize their voters and thereby influence the outcome.

Ra’am, an Israeli Arab party rooted in the Islamic movement, is also suspected of vote-buying, just as it finds itself at the center of negotiations to form a new government.

Qatar has forcefully rejected the allegations of interference, calling them “ridiculous and dangerous,” while Israel’s domestic intelligence service, Shin Bet, which says it has evidence supporting the suspicions, has opened an investigation following an official complaint by Likud. The complaint itself, however, does not name Qatar or Turkey, which have been singled out through leaks from security sources.

In a clarification issued during the day, Shin Bet said that information about possible foreign interference in the elections had been obtained “through intelligence work conducted to detect potential foreign influence, and not from Likud, the opposition or any other political organization.” It explained that the investigation was ongoing and that only the chairman of the Central Elections Committee, Noam Sohlberg, had been informed before voting ended. The leaders of the political blocs were given access to the information only after polling stations had closed.

Shin Bet stressed that the investigation was “targeted” and must not be “exploited to discredit an entire community that participated democratically in the elections,” a reference to Israel’s Arab community.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog echoed that message, saying he was closely following the ongoing investigation and stressing that “the integrity of elections is a fundamental value in any democracy.”

Nevertheless, the affair could greatly benefit Benjamin Netanyahu at a time when the Israeli prime minister is struggling and his continued leadership of a coalition government remains uncertain. His party, which has begun challenging the Arab parties’ results, hopes in this way to prevent the opposition from forming a coalition as negotiations to establish a government unfold. In an initial reaction, followed by other, more vehement statements, Likud declared that the elections had been “stolen.”

Far-right minister Bezalel Smotrich, who was quick to weigh in, called for representatives of the Arab parties to be questioned by the security services.

Other Israeli officials have raised the possibility of challenging the election results because of a separate investigation into possible vote-buying on behalf of Ra’am.

According to the Israeli press, suspects have been arrested in the Negev as part of the investigation into possible vote-buying on behalf of Ra’am. The party has denied any connection to the affair and pledged to cooperate with the judicial authorities. The investigation was launched after cash and ballot papers were discovered during searches.

In the October 27 election, the Arab parties won 19 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. This unprecedented result in Israel further complicates the political landscape surrounding negotiations to form a new government.

By late Thursday afternoon, the ballot count had confirmed Tuesday’s results. Neither the right-wing bloc nor the opposition bloc had secured the 61-seat majority required in parliament.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc thus holds steady at 53 seats, compared with 48 for the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot and his allies.

The Arab parties retain their 19 seats, with 8 for Ra’am and 11 for the Joint List. The question of their potential participation in government can no longer be avoided, though it is far from straightforward. It remains at the heart of a dispute between the right-wing parties and the opposition. A leading figure on the nationalist right, Avigdor Lieberman firmly ruled out any representation of Arab parties in a coalition government, while Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats party, said he was willing to join a government that included Arabs. He is the only figure in the Zionist camp to openly discuss serving in government alongside Ra’am and the Joint List.

Israelis would appear far from ready to accept such a prospect, particularly in light of the October 7 massacres and given that both Arab parties in question emerged from the Islamic movement. It is therefore easy to imagine how embarrassing such statements are for the opposition parties seeking to form a coalition against Netanyahu. He will undoubtedly make the most of the controversy over external financial support for the Arab parties to weaken the opposition and remain in power.