Trump Loses Congress but Remains in Control of Iran Policy

Seen by many analysts as a turning point in American politics, the Republicans’ admittedly heavy defeat in the midterm elections was predictable, given growing public dissatisfaction with the socioeconomic fallout from the war Donald Trump launched against Iran in February 2026.

The Democrats secured majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, winning in traditionally Republican states.

The setback bears the hallmarks of a protest vote against Donald Trump, whom a large share of the electorate blames for the decline in Americans’ living standards as a result of the policies he has pursued since his election.

But the defeat also needs to be put into perspective, as it reflects a recurring electoral pattern in the United States: throughout American history, the president’s party has always lost the midterm elections, with just two exceptions, without necessarily losing control of the executive branch.

This has been the case since 1946, with only two exceptions: under President Bill Clinton in 1998 and President George W. Bush in 2002. Clinton’s party gained four House seats, while Bush’s gained eight.

In any event, from January 3, when the new Congress takes office, the Democrats will have political tools at their disposal to counter President Trump’s initiatives. The new majority will be able to block bills and presidential decisions, and even reopen investigations into the occupant of the White House.

Speaking to AFP, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries pledged that his party would hold the administration accountable.

It should be noted, however, that the new majority’s room for maneuver remains limited on vital foreign policy, defense and security matters, where ultimate authority rests solely with the president. This is especially true given that the Democrats are well short of the two-thirds Senate majority—67 seats—that would have allowed them to challenge the president on these strategic issues.

Limited legislative power

The Democrats’ power in Congress therefore has limits. Under US law, Congress does not have unrestricted authority to block White House decisions, particularly regarding the military conflict with Tehran.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was quick to stress that the midterm election results would have “no effect on American policy or its hostility toward the Iranian people.” Those who believe otherwise, he said, are “gravely mistaken.”

For his part, President Donald Trump, who said he accepted the election results, threatened to veto any legislation passed by Congress that he opposed.

Indeed, barely had the Democrats’ victory been confirmed when he posted on his personal Truth Social account a photo of a cap in Republican red bearing the word VETO, in capital letters.

Amid the political upheaval in the United States, the big question now is how Donald Trump will handle Iran before January 3, especially since Tehran is bound to take advantage of the US election results to continue its delaying tactics in the ongoing negotiations with Washington.

The day after the election, the US president continued to send mixed signals on Iran. Would he launch an offensive that would deal the final blow to the mullahs’ regime?

Many analysts think so, arguing that Donald Trump now needs to secure both a military and a political victory—something he has yet to achieve.

He is not alone in thinking this way. His Israeli ally, Benjamin Netanyahu, is struggling after Israel’s parliamentary elections failed to give him a majority, and he too needs a victory. Unlike the Israeli prime minister, however, the US president still favors a diplomatic solution that would allow him to achieve his objectives.

The “axis of resistance”

It was undoubtedly this prospect that prompted Iran’s supreme leader—who has remained out of public view—to break his silence. While reiterating that his country would not make concessions to Washington, Mojtaba Khamenei again warned that “any further aggression against Iran would trigger a broader response.”

He said that the Tehran-led “axis of resistance” was “making gains on several fronts, from Palestine and Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen.”

In other words, Khamenei acknowledges that his country has continued to pull the strings of groups whose mission is to weaken the central government wherever they operate and to carry out destabilizing operations, both locally and across borders.

This is particularly true of the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. On Tuesday, Yemeni Interior Minister Ibrahim Ali Haydan accused Hezbollah of sending seven of its military experts to Yemen to advise the Houthis, alongside 14 members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

According to him, their mission includes helping the pro-Iranian group manage military operations, coordinate naval operations and train fighters.

Hezbollah denied these accusations on Wednesday, but the Lebanese authorities took them seriously and condemned Hezbollah’s interference in Yemeni affairs.

President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam sent messages of support to the Yemeni authorities.

With Hezbollah’s cross-border activities and blind allegiance to Tehran no secret, the prospect of renewed US strikes on Iran is fueling fears in Beirut that the group could once again drag the country into a devastating war.

Nawaf Salam echoed those concerns when, following a meeting with President Aoun, he warned Hezbollah against any attempt to drag the country into “another senseless adventure in the service of foreign interests, and to embroil it in confrontations whose consequences it cannot bear.” “We will not accept a fate being imposed on the Lebanese people that they have not chosen,” he declared, reiterating that decisions on war and peace rest exclusively with the Lebanese authorities.