Politics

Israel sets as a precondition the disarmament of Hezbollah before any negotiations — a demand it knows in advance to be beyond the reach of the Lebanese state, since the decision of war and peace remains, to a very large extent, outside the framework of that state's institutions. Israel has nonetheless taken a notable step by appointing Ron Dermer as head of its delegation to negotiations with Lebanon — a senior official close to decision-making circles, and particularly to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This appointment lends the Israeli move undeniable political substance and sends an unambiguous signal to the international community: Israel is ready to engage in a high-level negotiation process.

In contemporary geopolitics, there are few points on the map capable of altering the course of the world economy in a matter of moments. The Strait of Hormuz is among the most consequential of them. This narrow maritime passage, separating Iran from the Sultanate of Oman, forms the vital artery through which oil and gas are exported from the Gulf to the rest of the world. Any military tension in the region — particularly given the persistent escalation between Iran and Israel — places this strait at the very heart of the international equation. This is no longer merely a regional dispute or a limited military confrontation. What is at stake is the potential destabilization of one of the main pillars of the global economy.

The global order is entering a transitional phase marked by remodeling rather than collapse. The post-WW2 order led so far- and more so since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 - by the United States is adjusting to new realities. China’s economic weight gives it strategic leverage that extends far beyond trade and finance, positioning it as a major competitor to the United States. Although China’s form of interventionism differs from that of Western powers, its growing influence across regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America is nothing but another version of neo-colonialism, hence not less damaging to America’s global interests.

The Shiites knew "the death of God" more than a thousand years before the rest, when the lineage of Hassan ibn Ali al-Askari was cut off and he died by poison — the last of the great, infallible Imams. Shia political fiqh did not withdraw into some haven of consolation; it insisted, rather, that divine wilaya and the infallibility of the wali must endure. And so the son of Hassan came into being — most necessarily —, then disappeared in a Minor Occultation, followed by a Major Occultation, in the most prudent of all precautions… And thus Shia political fiqh deflected the idea of "the death of God" and fled from it toward the end of time… suspending time, leaving it hanging by a single hair: the awaiting of the Mahdi, who will return from his Occultation to fill the earth with justice and equity after it has been filled with oppression and iniquity…

The complex relationship between a segment of Lebanon's Shia community and Hezbollah cannot be grasped through conventional political analysis alone. It reaches beyond strategic calculations or immediate interests into a deeper realm — the cultural and symbolic architectures that shape how communities perceive themselves and inhabit the world. This is where the tools of sociology and anthropology become indispensable, particularly what Émile Durkheim offered us on the collective consciousness, and what Claude Lévi-Strauss illuminated about the deep cultural structures that organize how societies make sense of reality.

The Salam government’s decision to outlaw Hezbollah’s military and security activities – and to prosecute those behind them – is undoubtedly historic. Yet, it remains insufficient given the sheer scale of the “descent into hell” that this Iranian proxy has, once again, forced upon Lebanon. It is historic because it shatters a long-standing Lebanese tradition of political self-effacement and complacency – a stance long dictated at times by a fear of an internal strife and at others by political opportunism toward a group that has, over the years, successfully imposed its grip on the country and built a security and military apparatus that surpasses the capabilities of the Lebanese state.

At the helm of Iran since 1989, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had, for over three decades, embodied the ideological continuity of the Islamic Republic and its declared confrontation with the United States—the “Great Satan”—and Israel, designated as its implacable enemy. At 86 years old, the Supreme Leader was the longest-serving leader in the Middle East. Wearing the black turban of the ‘sayyed,’ a symbol of his claimed lineage from the Prophet Muhammad, he concentrated the vast majority of power in his hands. As head of the Iranian theocratic system, he held ultimate authority over religious, political, and military affairs. His portrait dominated the country’s public spaces, while the question of his succession remained taboo.

The rumor had started circulating shortly after the beginning of the American-Israeli raids launched early on Saturday morning, February 28, against Iran. The most violent attack had occurred in Tehran, more specifically against the vast residence of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Imam Ali Khamenei, which had been targeted by 30 large-caliber bombs. The raid had completely destroyed the residential center. Iranian authorities had then rushed to indicate that Imam Khamenei had been transferred to a “highly secured location.” Around noon, one of the Israeli television channels indicated that “all contact with Khamenei had been lost for several hours.” Later, in the early afternoon, the television channel indicated that it was “very unlikely, if not almost impossible, that the Supreme Leader emerged unharmed from the airstrike.” Two hours later, the same source stressed that evidence of Khamenei’s death was becoming increasingly numerous.

Donald Trump has just committed American forces to a large-scale operation against the Iranian regime. This is the real McCoy, the real thing, not a simulated raid nor a mere warning shot. The face of the Middle East is about to change. And, truth be told, it is the arrogance of the ayatollahs that will have brought about their downfall. Indeed, only a few days ago, the United States dealt Iran an affront that the ayatollahs had every interest in keeping quiet. During the latest conclave held in Geneva on Thursday, under the auspices of the Sultanate of Oman, Steve Witkoff, the American negotiator, abruptly broke off the talks and withdrew from the meeting on the pretext that he had other obligations to fulfil. In fact, he was heading to meet, on the other side of Lake Geneva, a Ukrainian delegation.

The Iranian people — along with other populations across the Levant — had long awaited this D-Day. The intensive American and Israeli air raids launched early this Saturday morning, February 28, do not appear to be a limited, one-off strike confined in time and scope. On the contrary, they seem to signal the prelude to a comprehensive and radical offensive — both militarily and politically — against the mullahs’ regime in power in Tehran. This assessment stems not only from the breadth and scale of the U.S.-Israeli air strikes, but above all from the televised and radio address delivered in the morning by President Donald Trump (likely recorded Friday evening).