US-Iran Conflict: A Far Cry from 2015 and the Obama Era
Donald Trump has just committed American forces to a large-scale operation against the Iranian regime. This is the real McCoy, the real thing, not a simulated raid nor a mere warning shot. The face of the Middle East is about to change. And, truth be told, it is the arrogance of the ayatollahs that will have brought about their downfall.
Indeed, only a few days ago, the United States dealt Iran an affront that the ayatollahs had every interest in keeping quiet. During the latest conclave held in Geneva on Thursday, under the auspices of the Sultanate of Oman, Steve Witkoff, the American negotiator, abruptly broke off the talks and withdrew from the meeting on the pretext that he had other obligations to fulfil. In fact, he was heading to meet, on the other side of Lake Geneva, a Ukrainian delegation.
Bitter pills to swallow
One can easily imagine the indignation of Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs. This heir to the Achaemenid Empire of Cyrus and Darius was treated as a nobody. Swallowing his pride, the Iranian foreign minister nevertheless declared that “good progress” had been made during the talks, which he described as “one of our most intense and longest series of negotiations.” Moreover, Araghchi announced that a new round of talks would take place in less than a week. The Omani mediators, seeking to calm tensions, immediately confirmed this, specifying that negotiations were expected to resume at technical level the following week in Vienna.
Their optimistic tone appears to have been contradicted by events, since the American team was evidently disappointed by the Iranian proposals. As evidence, there was the brevity of the second session, from which Donald Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, withdrew under a questionable pretext.
Times have changed
Discussions were taking place under the threat of an imminent strike that, in the event, was launched this morning. The American military build-up in the region is unprecedented: two carrier strike groups centred on aircraft carriers, 200 aircraft, aerial refuelling equipment and submarines equipped with Tomahawk missiles, not to mention the presence of 50,000 troops.
This is no longer the period of 2013–2015 under Barack Obama, who did not harbour principled hostility towards Iran. Indeed, John Kerry, who replaced Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State in 2013, quickly conveyed the message to the relevant parties: the United States was ready to modify its stance towards Tehran. It was prepared, at least de facto, to recognise the legitimacy of Iran’s nuclear programme and to abandon the demand that the ayatollahs’ regime suspend uranium enrichment activities, a demand that had blocked any possibility of reaching an agreement for seven years.
The negotiations launched at that time culminated on 14 July 2015 in the agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. But that was not the end of the story, since during his first term Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement. Everything had to begin again from scratch, this time under the shadow of aircraft carriers.
For Iranian negotiators, however, the years 2013 to 2015 were a “blessed era”, during which they played the leading role, demonstrating professionalism and firmness while accumulating successes. Mohammad Javad Zarif, the foreign minister, spoke loudly and was listened to. Never would his American counterpart, John Kerry, have allowed himself an incivility such as Witkoff’s. Never would he have so flagrantly snubbed him.
Trump as warlord
This Saturday’s American intervention has changed the equation, and Donald Trump now presents himself as a wartime leader. Too much has been said about his businessman’s instincts, supposedly inclined to avoid confrontation. Yet he was not without calculation. Has he not always hinted that he hesitated to cross the Rubicon? The page has now been turned, and his true face revealed.
“Strategic ambiguity” has paid off, and it is up to free Iranians to reap the fruits.