The Tehran Meeting: Iran’s Attempt to Defuse Escalation

Iran hosted a meeting of the countries party to the Mecca Agreement as The New York Times reported that Donald Trump was leaning towards a major attack after the US midterm elections. Meanwhile, according to leaks in the Israeli media, the Israeli prime minister had reportedly wanted to attack Iran before Tuesday’s election but had been unable to convince his chief of staff.

With a new regional conflict seeming almost inevitable, Monday’s quadrilateral meeting in Iran came as a surprise. Announced on the very day it took place, the meeting brought together in Teheran, at the initiative of the Iranian regime, representatives of the Mecca Agreement countries, namely Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. Its stated aim was to find ways to restore regional stability, which has been lost. The meeting was immediately welcomed by UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian seized the opportunity to call for “regional unity,” expressing his hopes in addressing representatives of “influential Islamic countries.” He called for the parties to “stand united and adopt a coordinated position.” In other words, against the United States and Israel, at time when, according to The New York Times, US President Donald Trump could order a major strike after the US midterm elections on 3 November.

Observers note, however, that discussions behind closed doors were unlikely to have been entirely “cordial.” Saudi Arabia remains under fire from Yemen’s Houthis, allies of Iran. Under the Mecca Agreement, Pakistan and Türkiye are expected to support Saudi Arabia in its defense. On the same day, Egypt’s parliament authorized President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to help Riyadh defend itself against any aggression. Egypt has not yet sought to join the Mecca alliance, signed last August.

The Iranian regime thus found itself facing a united front on Monday. Did representatives of the three allied countries ask Tehran to make the concessions necessary to avert the worst? And, above all, did they urge it to halt its attacks on neighboring countries, whether directly or through its proxies? For the Iranian regime, however, these last-chance talks were a way to defuse mounting regional tensions and forestall a possible US-Israeli attack.

An Aborted Strike on Iran?

The Tehran meeting thus took place on the eve of Israel’s election, on Tuesday. For Benjamin Netanyahu, the long Israeli election campaign has been grueling right to the end. Once again, Iran has become a source of controversy on the eve of the vote.

On Monday, some Israeli media outlets reported that a dispute had allegedly erupted between Netanyahu and the military’s chief of staff over an attack on Iran that Netanyahu reportedly wanted to launch before the election. Eyal Zamir reportedly feared that launching the attack would be “a miscalculation.” The two men are said to have held a heated meeting.

Israel’s defense minister and Netanyahu ally, Israel Katz, categorically denied the media reports. According to Katz, Israel “had no intention of launching an attack on Iran before the election.” However, given the scale of the media leaks, he was unable to dispel all doubts.

In this context, Israel’s election is being watched with anxiety given its certain impact on the entire region. The latest polls show the two main candidates, Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, neck and neck. Such a close result could trigger a political crisis and make it difficult to form a new government.

What are the implications for the ongoing conflict? On the eve of the vote, Donald Trump once again voiced his support for Netanyahu, with a view to furthering the partnership between the two men against Iran. The Iranian regime was quick to point out on Monday that the election results, whatever the outcome, “will make no difference.” As for Hezbollah, sources cited by Reuters say it is already preparing for war…