Taline Becharraoui

President Donald Trump's threats against Iran in the wake of Wednesday's Flydubai flight incident, along with the increased U.S. military presence in the region, show that war is a real possibility, even if the door to negotiations remains open. At least in principle, since Iranian officials continue to use radical rhetoric and believe they are in a position to dictate terms to the United States. At the same time, they are escalating matters in Yemen through their ally, the Houthis. The failed hijacking attempt—or deliberate crash—of the Emirati Flydubai aircraft operating the Dubai–Tel Aviv route, carrying more than 150 Israeli passengers on September 30, clearly dominated the past week.

To follow and understand the war—or rather, wars—in the Middle East during the week of September 21–27, 2026, one had to look instead… to New York. Regional conflicts heavily shaped some of the most closely watched speeches at the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly, including those by U.S. President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (speaking remotely). Beyond the speeches, the plenary assembly provided an opportunity for important bilateral meetings, two of which stand out: a U.S.-Iranian meeting that failed to produce the hoped-for results, and a Lebanese-Iranian meeting that, according to various sources, turned sour.

Following drone attacks by the pro-Iranian Yemeni militia on the Saudi capital this weekend, the United States says it fears “a rapid escalation” in the region and issued a warning to its citizens on Sunday. On the Lebanese front, a preparatory meeting in Paris for a conference in support of the Lebanese army produced no conclusive results, at a time when a confrontation with the Israeli army in the south appears to be a worrying sign. At the end of a week marked above all in the Middle East by the Houthis’ continued escalation against Saudi Arabia, one might think that the Iranian front remained at a standstill. As usual since the conflict began, statements by US President Donald Trump have sent mixed signals about his country’s military or diplomatic intentions.

Beyond the usual reports on the war in the Middle East and on the southern Lebanese front, Lebanon woke up to sad news on Monday morning. Dory Chamoun, a former MP and former president of the National Liberal Party, died in Beirut at the age of 95. The son of Lebanon’s iconic President Camille Chamoun, Dory Chamoun made his mark on the country’s history throughout the various phases of the Lebanese war, particularly in the aftermath of the assassination of his charismatic brother, Dany Chamoun, along with his family. Lebanon was then entering a period of intensified Syrian occupation that would last until 2005.

The pro-Iranian Yemeni Houthi militia advanced rapidly this week toward coastal areas along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on the Red Sea, in an offensive bearing Iran’s hallmark and placing particular pressure on Saudi Arabia. Iran, for its part, did not respond to the Israeli military’s destruction of the strategic Ali el-Taher site in southern Lebanon, which was built over 20 years with support from the Revolutionary Guards. The most significant development in the Middle East during the week of September 7–13, 2026, was probably the rapid advance of the pro-Iranian Houthi rebels toward Yemeni areas on the coast of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. This came despite ongoing clashes with pro-Saudi government forces in a country that has been divided and at war for years.

Since the American strikes against Iran on Tuesday night—the first in roughly a month—tensions between the warring parties have reached a breaking point. Iran has continued its strikes throughout Tuesday night and into Wednesday, targeting neighboring countries, as it typically does whenever it comes under attack. Jordan said it had shot down several drones. In Kuwait, a fire broke out following a drone attack, and the Iranians themselves claimed to have targeted the Al Dhafra and Al Minhad bases in the United Arab Emirates. Later in the day, the Revolutionary Guards announced they had struck American targets in Erbil, in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Ever since the United States adopted a policy of sanctions and economic pressure on Iran, negotiations between the two parties have made no progress. The visit of Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammad Abdulrahman Al Thani to Tehran on Thursday aimed to revive these talks, particularly with a view to facilitating smoother passage through the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi skillfully seized on the visit to make a cautious overture toward the United States. Posting a photo with the Qatari official on his X account, he accompanied it with a message stating that returning to the negotiating table "is not impossible."

The Israeli state appears determined to counter Turkish ambitions in Syria, drawing a lukewarm response from Washington. On Iran, the United States is now favoring a strategy of economic strangulation. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is facing increasing U.S. pressure. In the Middle East, the major development of the week of August 17–23 was the standoff between Israel and Turkey in Syria. The affair began on Tuesday with a strike on the Abu al-Duhur airport in the province of Idlib, in southwestern Syria — out of service since the start of the Syrian war, but home to a presence of the new Syrian army under Ahmad al-Sharaa's authority.

While Iranian-American talks remain stalled amid fierce rhetoric on both sides, it is the front in southern Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah that has seen a gradual escalation this week, reaching a peak on Saturday — pointing to potentially unpredictable developments in the days ahead. The week of August 10–16, 2026 was marked in South Lebanon by an escalation that built steadily until the bloody Saturday of August 15. There is a sense of déjà vu — the center of gravity of a regional conflict shifting once again toward a small country, at a time when, on the main front with Iran, the belligerents' war of words has replaced actual hostilities… at least for now.

The rift between Americans and Israelis over Lebanon is growing ever wider, as statements from Israeli officials increasingly diverge from commitments made during direct talks with the Lebanese — particularly since the framework agreement was signed between the two sides in June. Comments by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, suggesting that the army would not withdraw from the occupied portion of the South, drew a sharp rebuke from the State Department on Thursday, which stated that such declarations were inconsistent with the commitments made under the framework agreement. Meanwhile, on Thursday, Israeli destruction continued unabated in southern Lebanon. According to MTV, Israel is also reportedly preparing to blow up Hezbollah tunnels in the Ali el-Taher hill, where Iran has over the years built an impressive network of underground tunnels stretching hundreds of kilometers, alongside sophisticated military infrastructure designed to pave the way for a Hezbollah assault on Galilee.