Middle East Conflict: War or an Unlikely Peace?

On the eve of the US midterm elections, due to take place on Tuesday, polls – albeit imprecise – point to a Democratic victory, although nothing is decided in advance, as the defection of an influential Democratic congresswoman to the Republican candidate in the key state of Michigan illustrates. Against this backdrop, the war in the Middle East is more than ever at the center of the debate. The prospect of an Israeli American military escalation against Iran remains just as significant, if not more so, as the prospect of progress in the negotiations currently under way in Qatar.

On Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged that the positions of the parties to the conflict remained “very far apart,” but said that the talks were nonetheless “intense.” He added that Iran would be ready to reopen the Strait of Hormuz “within two days” – provided the United States agreed to all of its demands. This underscores that Iran has lost none of its hardline stance. Araghchi even added another demand: Washington's acceptance of the “new route agreed between Iran and Oman.”

The negotiations are therefore continuing cautiously, while all eyes – including those of the Iranians – are fixed on the US elections. Iran also appears to have secured the backing of China and Russia, as suggested by contacts between Iranian officials and senior figures in these two allied countries.

But the Israeli factor must also be taken into account. The US news outlet Axios reported that President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone on Monday. According to some reports, Netanyahu would like to see a swift move towards war immediately after the US elections. Trump, for his part, would prefer to give the talks another chance, particularly as fuel prices have fallen during this relative lull. Their rise had made the prospect of war deeply unpopular.

Threats Against Lebanon

If Netanyahu is in a hurry to strike Iran, it is also because he wants to consolidate his domestic political position in Israel, where last week’s elections failed to produce a clear majority. The anti-Netanyahu opposition is expected to meet on Tuesday to decide on the steps to take toward forming a government.

Amid this uncertainty, it is the threat to Lebanon that now appears most likely to materialize. For the second day in a row, the Israeli daily Maariv has published reports on the Lebanese front. On Monday, the newspaper reported that the Israeli army had moved several units to northern Israel, facing southern Lebanon, to firmly counter any attack by Hezbollah. In such an event, even the capital – more specifically, its southern suburbs – would not be spared.

According to the newspaper, the Israeli army believes that any conflict with Iran at this stage would inevitably extend to Hezbollah, the Houthis, and even Hamas. The previous day, the paper had reported on a military plan for a major expansion of Israeli operations in Lebanon in the event of a renewed conflict with Hezbollah, including the possible occupation of additional areas as far as Sidon.

On the ground, Israeli military movements appear to bear out these reports. Drones and aircraft remain in the skies over southern Lebanon and even Beirut. In southern Lebanon, strikes are continuing and growing increasingly intense, seemingly as a means of keeping pressure on Hezbollah, which has yet to retaliate.