Today's Essential

The explosions generated shockwaves equivalent to a magnitude 3.2 earthquake: the Israeli army carried out massive explosions near Beaufort Castle in southern Lebanon on Thursday night, drawing condemnation from President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. The head of state went so far as to denounce "an extremely dangerous escalation" and "a direct threat" to the implementation of the framework agreement concluded in June between Lebanon and Israel under U.S. auspices. While the United States had confirmed on Monday that new talks between Israel and Lebanon would be held in Rome from August 4 to 6, aimed in part at expanding the process, the presidency lamented in a statement that "the timing of these aggressions sends negative messages and undermines international efforts to consolidate stability," just days before those new negotiations.

Day after day, the radical wing of the Iranian regime – at least as it is characterized by certain Western circles – is working to demonstrate its capacity to gradually extend its reach into new areas of the Middle East. Following the reactivation of their Yemeni militia, the Houthis, aimed at holding hostage the Bab el-Mandeb strait and the corresponding Red Sea shipping lane (after the Strait of Hormuz), the Revolutionary Guards were keen to show that they have "a long arm" when it comes to missile range. They attacked the port of Damietta in Egypt using an explosive-laden drone, striking two gas storage vessels – one of which was American.

Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza… On Tuesday, Iran decided to mobilize its fourth major proxy in the region to ramp up pressure on the United States and its allies: Iraq, where the Islamic Republic continues to maintain a network of armed groups overseen by the Revolutionary Guards. Washington announced Wednesday airstrikes in Iraq targeting pro-Iranian armed groups, carried out jointly with Saudi Arabia, which had itself been hit earlier by missiles fired from Iraqi territory. These attacks, carried out in several Iraqi cities, killed 20 people — including five Iranians — and wounded 32 within the ranks of the Hashed al-Shaabi, according to this predominantly Shia network of factions, which is integrated into Iraq's armed forces and encompasses several pro-Iranian armed groups.

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a meeting on Tuesday that both sides described as "positive," reaffirming their shared commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The two leaders, who have stood shoulder to shoulder in their campaign against the Islamic Republic, have nonetheless begun showing signs of divergence since last April. The White House occupant now favors a diplomatic solution to cut short a war that has dragged on longer than expected and risks becoming a political liability as the midterm elections approach. Conversely, the Israeli Prime Minister intends to see the confrontation through to the end in order to eliminate what he describes as the "existential" threat posed by Iran.

While tensions have largely subsided in the Middle East regarding the Iranian conflict, it is the Yemeni front that appears most active this Monday, July 27, with new Houthi rebel attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. In this context, the Saudi kingdom is currently being targeted by other pro-Iranian groups based in Iraq. The Saudis intercepted drones launched from Iraqi territory and, at the same time, called on Iraqi authorities to prevent such attacks carried out by these 'terrorist' groups — all the more so as the new government has expressed its willingness to better manage its internal situation.

Yemen's Houthi rebels, allies of Tehran, targeted Saudi Arabian oil facilities on Saturday in retaliation for strikes by Riyadh, marking a further escalation of hostilities on yet another front of the war engulfing the Middle East. While Saudi authorities have so far remained silent on the matter, the Greek air force — tasked with operating an air defense system in Saudi Arabia — announced it had intercepted two missiles and a drone launched from Yemen toward Yanbu. Having stepped up strikes against Gulf states in recent months in retaliation for American bombardments, Tehran now appears to be opening a new front through its Houthi allies against the Riyadh-led coalition.

The escalation continues and intensifies on the Iranian front, particularly as the U.S. military has been bombing Revolutionary Guard positions and infrastructure across several regions of Iran for twelve consecutive days. The entry of Yemen's Houthis into the conflict is also being confirmed. Early Thursday, the pro-Iranian Houthi militia announced it had struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, as part of what it claims is a maritime blockade it is imposing on Saudi Arabia. The activation of the Yemeni front did not go unanswered on the American side. President Donald Trump issued a stern warning to the Iranian regime and the Houthis. Condemning the attack on the two Saudi tankers, the U.S. president made it clear that if such aggression is repeated, he will hold the Islamic Republic responsible, "since it is the one pulling the Houthis' strings." Trump stressed that if such an attack happens again, he will inflict "severe punishment on Iran, as well as on the Houthis."

The summit between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington marks a key milestone in the Lebanese government’s efforts to restore the authority of the state. Behind the summit lay a strategic objective that is part of the broader regional transformation now underway and that the United States fully supports because it also serves its own objectives: bringing an end to Iran’s influence in Lebanon. In practical terms, as is widely understood, that means resolving the issue of Hezbollah’s illegal weapons. The group continues to reject the authority of the Lebanese state and remains firmly opposed to the political course pursued by the president. For the Lebanese people and the international community, however, with the obvious exception of Iran, resolving the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons remains an essential prerequisite for restoring the state’s sovereignty.

The situation in Iran continues to escalate on every front. Tensions are rising both in the political and media spheres and on the battlefield. The U.S. military is continuing its strikes against the Revolutionary Guards’ strategic facilities and transportation networks, while the Guards are retaliating by targeting—not Israel—but Arab countries, primarily the Gulf states. In recent days, Revolutionary Guard attacks have extended to Jordan, where two American soldiers were killed, four others wounded, and a seventh remains missing while participating in air defense operations aimed at intercepting missiles and drones. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims that its attacks on Arab countries are intended to strike U.S. military bases located there. However, recent events contradict that claim, as Iranian strikes over the past two days targeted, among other sites in Kuwait, a power plant and a seawater desalination facility.

Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan came under fresh Iranian attacks on Friday, in retaliation for American airstrikes carried out on Iranian soil. For the sixth consecutive day, Washington's Gulf allies are directly bearing the cost of this military escalation. The damage inflicted on civilian infrastructure on both sides points to a further intensification of the conflict. Late Friday evening, US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the US military had launched, for the seventh consecutive night, a new wave of strikes against Iranian military positions and infrastructure. Iran's official state media reported powerful explosions shortly before midnight in several areas of southern Iran, including Bandar Abbas. Communication routes have been a particular focus of US military strikes over the past 48 hours.