From Rome to Hormuz, Negotiations Are Progressing but Uncertainties Remain
It is a day of talks par excellence. In Rome, the third and final meeting of the seventh round of direct negotiations between Beirut and Tel Aviv concluded on a more or less positive note, though still without a definitive outcome.
In the Gulf, Tehran and Muscat are reportedly on the verge of announcing a provisional agreement on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
In both cases, a resolution is certainly not imminent, especially since the underlying problem — namely Iran's destabilizing influence in the region, and more specifically that of pro-Iranian militias — persists, as Syrian Foreign Minister Assaad al-Shaibani rightly pointed out during his visit to Ankara on Thursday.
Recent developments in Yemen also support this assessment. On Thursday, the Houthi militia claimed attacks against government forces in response, according to its leader, to the recent reinforcement of Yemeni troops backed by Saudi Arabia.
These attacks killed at least 38 people, making it the deadliest toll since the 2022 ceasefire that had ended more than seven years of devastating war in this Arabian Peninsula country.
After his meeting with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan, Assaad al-Shaibani announced that Damascus and Ankara agreed to "support efforts aimed at strengthening stability in Iraq and Lebanon," based on the principle that "restoring the monopoly on arms in both countries would promote stability across the entire region."
He also emphasized the importance of "strengthening security coordination with neighboring countries and controlling borders in order to address the threats posed by armed groups operating outside state authority."
While Iraq is fully engaged in a — admittedly complex — process of disarming militias, which have reportedly redeployed their forces on the ground amid fears of a renewed security escalation in the country, Lebanon appears to have put this issue on the back burner.
For Beirut, the priority remains southern Lebanon and all the issues surrounding the disastrous consequences of the war into which Hezbollah dragged the country.
According to information reported by Lebanese media regarding the latest round of direct talks — spread over three days and divided into three sessions covering political, legal, and military matters — the Lebanese delegation insisted on the continued gradual Israeli withdrawal from the southern part of the country, based on the bilateral agreement of June and the cessation of military operations.
No final agreement could be reached on the issue of "pilot zones," which are currently limited to three, and which Beirut wishes to expand to additional sectors, including Zawtar al-Sharqiyeh.
The agency al-Markaziya, citing sources from the presidential palace of Baabda, noted that the Israeli delegation requested a detailed presentation of the proposed sectors in order to examine their geographic characteristics.
The Lebanese document is to be submitted to the political authority in Israel, according to al-Markaziya, which, citing the same sources, notes that an agreement was reached, however, on the references and procedures that should govern the coordination mechanisms between the three parties (Lebanese, Israeli, and American) for the implementation phase of the remaining mechanism.
The two delegations also wrapped up the issue of the "guarantor third party" — meaning the entity responsible for ensuring on the ground that the measures taken comply with the provisions of the Lebanese-Israeli agreement of June.
They agreed on a "shortlist" of candidates from which the entity tasked with assuming this role will be chosen.
They also agreed to bring the matter before the United Nations Security Council in order to secure the adoption of a new resolution that will serve as a legal framework for the period following the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
The prisoner file, which was discussed at length, is proving more problematic as it involves an exchange, according to the same sources. Lebanon has a precise list of names that it handed over to the Israeli delegation, which in turn provided a list of the names of missing Israelis and Lebanese Jews.
However, Beirut does not have any data on this matter.
In any case, the Rome discussions are considered "positive" according to Baabda. Steps are even underway to involve the International Committee of the Red Cross in the process.
Talks are expected to resume on the 1st of September. This date remains tentative, however. It will be confirmed depending on how diplomatic contacts evolve and on the preparation of the files under review.
Thanks to American intervention, the Rome negotiations were not derailed by the military escalation in southern Lebanon, where the Israeli army carried out successive violent raids against Mansouri and Burj Shamali, in the Tyre district.
This surge in violence, which followed the deaths of two Israeli soldiers in a booby-trapped building in Majdal Zoun, was able to be addressed within the framework of the monitoring mechanism established since November 27 of last year, following the ill-fated "war of support" for Hamas, also launched by Hezbollah against Israel.
On the sidelines of the negotiations, President of the Republic Joseph Aoun acknowledged to journalists accredited to Baabda that "the road will be long" before reaching an agreement that would shield Lebanon from further destruction, but that the state is "determined to see it through."
An Iranian-Omani agreement?
At the regional level, Iran and the Sultanate of Oman appear to be on the verge of announcing an agreement on the management of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the pan-Arab channel Al-Hadath, the agreement in question — of which Washington has reportedly been informed — would require ships to use a corridor running along Iran's coast on the outbound journey and along Oman's coast on the return, in exchange for what are described as service fees.
Discussions are said to be in their final stage, according to Iranian diplomatic spokesman Esmail Baghaei, as quoted by the official IRNA news agency.
However, any reopening of Hormuz — which Tehran has locked down — will depend on the actions of Washington, which is imposing a blockade on Iranian ports, he specified.
Yet this reopening risks becoming problematic if information provided by the Iranian agency Fars is confirmed. According to this outlet, a bill is currently under consideration in the Iranian Parliament that would ban ships flying Israeli or American flags, as well as those belonging to countries that host American military bases, from passing through the strait.
This development, if confirmed, would be a further indicator of Iran's internal divisions, which, according to U.S. Vice President JD Vance, are at the root of complications in bilateral talks that are apparently continuing indirectly through Qatari and Pakistani mediators.
Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani sharply criticized in this context "a minority seeking to drag the country into war," while reports circulating in various media outlets describe appointments and restructuring attempts aimed at consolidating the authority of the hardline faction within Iran.