The Region Enters a Lull, Tehran Reshuffles Its Leadership

The region appears to have entered a prolonged “pause,” a lull that could last until the two elections scheduled for the fall, first in Israel and then in the United States. Mobile pockets of tension persist, however, but remain under control.

The week now getting underway is following much the same course as the previous one, both politically and militarily. There have been no sharp shifts in position, either on the American or Israeli side, even as U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks on Iran on Sunday continue to fuel speculation about a possible shift in Washington’s strategy.

Only Tehran, engaged in a process of internal restructuring, has broken the lull by responding directly to the occupant of the White House. In an interview with the U.S. news site Axios on Sunday, Donald Trump compared the standoff with the Islamic Republic to “a game of chess,” after ruling out the use of force to compel it to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump Takes a Harder Line

For the first time in about 10 days, President Trump on Monday resumed his media attacks on Iran’s leadership, saying he intends to demand that the mullahs’ regime compensate “the families of protesters killed over the past 50 years.” The White House chief went further, saying that “Iran must bear responsibility for the damage and loss of life suffered by the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Gaza.”

The president’s position on the matter is clearly a response to the stance taken by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, which have set six conditions for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, including a demand that Washington pay Iran compensation for the damage caused by US bombing.

Tehran responded with irony through the voice of its Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, who said that Iranians were “professional chess players.” The remark was a way of saying that the Islamic Republic would have the final say in the ongoing conflict, as speculation ran high on Monday about the implications of the shift in U.S. strategy, with Washington for the time being abandoning the military option against Iran in favor of increased economic pressure.

By stepping up economic pressure, are the United States betting on the Islamic Republic collapsing from within? Are they trying to ease tensions to prevent internal upheaval ahead of the November midterm elections? Or are they seeking to buy time while replenishing their stocks of weapons and ammunition? These are among the questions that fueled political and media analysis on Monday.

What is certain, however, is that indirect talks between Tehran and Washington have been suspended, and that an Iranian-Omani agreement on the management of the Strait of Hormuz, which both sides said on Thursday was imminent, has yet to materialize. During a phone call on Monday, the Iranian and Pakistani foreign ministers discussed everything except the indirect U.S.-Iranian talks that had been taking place through Islamabad.

The only development confirmed so far is the resumption of the conflict in Yemen, with the Iran-backed Houthi militia once again fully engaged in fighting Yemeni government forces and Saudi Arabia. The war should be seen as part of the broader power struggle in which Iran is engaged with countries in the region that host U.S. military bases, as Tehran seeks to establish itself as an indispensable regional power.

Six Key Appointments in Tehran

Although the guns have largely fallen silent, Tehran is using the region’s state of neither war nor peace to rebuild its leadership, particularly its military command. According to various Iranian and pan-Arab media outlets, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has appointed Ahmad Vahidi as commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (the Pasdaran). Five others have also been appointed to key military positions: Ali Abdollahi as chief of staff of the armed forces; Kiyomars Heidari as deputy chief of staff of the armed forces; Mostafa Izadi as deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; Ali Azmaei as commander of the IRGC’s naval forces; and Hossein Taeb as commander of the Basij paramilitary militia.

Tehran had already appointed Mohsen Rezaei, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, replacing Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr.

The key question is whether this restructuring is also accompanied by a rebuilding of Iran’s military infrastructure, at a time when Israel is threatening to strike the Islamic Republic if it rebuilds its nuclear and ballistic arsenal.

Tehran Counts on a U.S. Pullback

For now, Tehran appears to be counting on the U.S. strategic pullback, as well as the disagreements that continue to surface between Washington and Tel Aviv, in an effort to get back on its feet.

According to various Israeli media outlets, relations between Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are not at their best. Washington is said to favor political solutions and wants Israel to withdraw from Gaza and Lebanon. It also wants Tel Aviv to rein in its threats against Iran, according to reports that say a message to that effect was conveyed to Israeli authorities by Centcom commander Adm. Brad Cooper. But Tel Aviv is said to have rejected all three demands. Israel disputes, in particular, the U.S. plan for Gaza.

The same applies to Lebanon, where the Israeli military continues its operations in the part of southern Lebanon it controls, while uncertainty surrounds the eighth round of direct talks, scheduled to take place in Rome in early September. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun discussed the matter Monday with the head of the Lebanese delegation, Simon Karam. According to various reports, the issue of the map posted on X on Sunday – and later taken down – by Israel’s Foreign Ministry, depicting part of southern Lebanon as annexed to Israeli territory, is expected to be raised at the next Lebanese-Israeli meeting, particularly as Beirut insists on a full, gradual Israeli withdrawal from the southern part of the country.