Persistent political tensions against a backdrop of military stagnation

The rift between Americans and Israelis over Lebanon is growing ever wider, as statements from Israeli officials increasingly diverge from commitments made during direct talks with the Lebanese — particularly since the framework agreement was signed between the two sides in June.

Comments by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, suggesting that the army would not withdraw from the occupied portion of the South, drew a sharp rebuke from the State Department on Thursday, which stated that such declarations were inconsistent with the commitments made under the framework agreement.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, Israeli destruction continued unabated in southern Lebanon. According to MTV, Israel is also reportedly preparing to blow up Hezbollah tunnels in the Ali el-Taher hill, where Iran has over the years built an impressive network of underground tunnels stretching hundreds of kilometers, alongside sophisticated military infrastructure designed to pave the way for a Hezbollah assault on Galilee.

On the political front, Thursday was marked by a statement from Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who criticized the "illogical stance" of Israel despite the start of the framework agreement's implementation on the ground. He also complained that an initial post expressing that view had been removed from his X account, forcing him to repost it.

This unyielding Israeli posture is playing out against the backdrop of the upcoming October elections. And the escalation on the ground is not limited to Lebanon. On Thursday, another killing took place in Gaza despite repeated American calls for a lull. In the Strip, the Israeli army killed two Palestinians, including a police commander, near Khan Younes, describing the victim as a "terrorist" who posed "a threat" to its soldiers.

Unrest is also continuing in the West Bank, where Palestinian journalist Mohammad Awad was arrested near Ramallah on the grounds that he works for Hamas. Even the U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, condemned the "horrific terror" carried out by Israeli settlers in the West Bank.

Heated rhetoric and a fragile truce over Iran

On the Iranian front, an increasingly bellicose war of words continues to rage over control of the Strait of Hormuz, which has firmly become the focal point of this Iran-U.S. confrontation. While no escalation has yet been observed on the ground between the two sides, the rhetoric flared following comments made the previous day by U.S. President Donald Trump, who claimed that the United States had "total control" of the strait and was maintaining a "tight blockade" on Iranian ports.

That was enough to trigger a wave of outraged responses from Iran. The Iranian army on Thursday denounced Trump's "lies." "The false U.S. claims that ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz normally (...) are nothing but lies and fabrications," said Ebrahim Zolfaghari, spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command, according to AFP.

He stated that the strait remains "under the full management and control of the Islamic Republic, and no commercial or oil tanker has had, or will have, the ability to navigate it safely without the authorization and supervision of Iran's powerful armed forces."

Another senior Iranian official had also earlier contradicted the U.S. president's statements. "Today, you can see that the Strait of Hormuz is under the management and control of the Islamic Republic, and our country continues on its path in complete security," said Hossein Taeb, commander of the Basij paramilitary forces, which fall under the Revolutionary Guards.

For his part, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on Thursday on his X account that the United States had made "miscalculations" stemming from intelligence failures.

In another statement and fresh provocation, Iranian MP Behnam Saeedi, a member of the National Security Commission, claimed that Israeli vessels and American military ships would be barred from passing through the strait.

For now, there are no signs that the ceasefire is about to collapse, and the conflict increasingly gives the impression of being stuck in a quagmire. The Iranians are not missing any opportunity to demand compensation for passage through the strait, the latest example being the oil spill off the coast of Oman — clearly caused by a strike on a tanker — which has now reached Iranian shores. The country's authorities are now seeking damages in connection with the incident.

Although calm on the American-Iranian front appears to be holding, the same cannot be said for Yemen's Houthis, Iranian allies, who claimed a drone strike on a Saudi refinery belonging to the giant Aramco on Thursday evening — again with no notable American response.

It is worth noting that, according to Saudi channel Al Arabiya, the Saudi Defense Minister met on Thursday with an Iraqi delegation to discuss military and defense relations. Could this be linked to the defense pact signed last week between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey on collective defense? In any case, this marks the first such meeting following attacks carried out against the kingdom from Iraqi territory.