From Hormuz to Lebanon, the Uncertainties Persist

The 60-day truce between the United States and Iran will expire in three days, with no official indication from either side about their intentions.

Communication channels between Tehran and Washington remain severed, but mediators — notably Pakistan — appear to be working actively to secure an extension of the ceasefire established under the US-Iranian memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June.

Both belligerents appear willing to extend the truce, though any such extension would not, at this stage, come with specific conditions attached, according to several corroborating media sources.

The regional status quo is therefore set to continue, with no way of determining — given the hardening rhetoric on both sides — what might bring them back to the negotiating table.

Washington believes the naval blockade it has imposed on the Islamic Republic is beginning to take effect, while Tehran, for its part, believes that by continuing to disrupt international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, it can pressure the United States into softening the conditions it is imposing on the Islamic Republic, which is nonetheless facing the threat of new economic sanctions.

These are expected to be announced next week, according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and would "be added on top of the existing naval blockade."

"It will be a combination of economic isolation the likes of which the world has never seen, and the continuation of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which will prevent anything from entering or leaving Iranian ports," he announced in a television interview, without providing further details on the measures being considered.

This pressure is driven in part by the continued attacks by the Revolutionary Guards on vessels transiting the US-secured corridor at Hormuz, as well as ongoing strikes by pro-Iranian Houthi forces against Saudi infrastructure.

At the same time, the United States maintains a strong military presence in the region. The aircraft carrier USS George Washington, normally based in the Pacific, is en route to the Middle East, where it is expected to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been deployed since late January.

The information was provided by the Associated Press, citing a US naval forces statement, which attributes the redeployment to reports of mental health and supply issues faced by personnel aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln.

Uncertainty in Lebanon

In Lebanon, the day was dominated by a statement from US Ambassador Michel Issa regarding the Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon.

Following a meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berry, the diplomat stated bluntly, in response to a question, that Israeli military operations — including the demolition of homes and civilian infrastructure — will not stop until Hezbollah surrenders its weapons.

Engaged in direct negotiations with Israel, Lebanon's main condition for moving the talks forward is an end to the ongoing demolitions — condemned on Thursday by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam — and a gradual Israeli withdrawal from the south of the country. The date for the eighth round of talks has yet to be set.

Michel Issa confirmed this, while assuring that the round will take place. September 2 had been floated as a possible date following the seventh round held in Rome, but it was still pending confirmation.

Other factors are complicating the continuation of the dialogue, including the question of pilot zones, which remains under discussion, particularly with CENTCOM officials and the head of the ceasefire monitoring committee, General Joseph Clearfield, who has been holding official meetings in Lebanon since Wednesday.

Accompanied by M. Issa, he had met with Nabih Berry and then with Nawaf Salam. According to the American ambassador, discussions are still ongoing to determine which state — among those shortlisted in Rome — will be designated to verify that the work carried out by the Lebanese army in the pilot zones complies with the provisions of last June's Lebanese-Israeli agreement.

It would appear, however, that negotiations are progressing well to ensure that Lebanese-Israeli talks resume on schedule. While Michel Issa welcomed the progress made so far, Hezbollah continues to oppose it.

Its leader, Naim Qassem, as disconnected from reality as ever, renewed his attacks against the authorities on Friday in a speech delivered to celebrate his movement's so-called "victory" (!) in the 2006 war, which proved devastating for Lebanon. In this same tired speech, he once again took it upon himself to threaten the state, claiming that his group's "anger" could "explode at any moment"…