USA/Iran: A Low-Level War of Attrition

It is a war of attrition in every sense of the word. Yet much of the time, it is being kept simmering at a low level, as was the case overnight from Sunday into Monday and in the early hours of the new week.

Late Sunday evening, the U.S. military said it had detected – most likely by satellite – Islamic Revolutionary Guard militiamen preparing two rocket launchers capable of dispersing mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after the announcement, the U.S. military launched overnight raids on Revolutionary Guard positions on Larak Island, killing and wounding several people, according to sources within the Revolutionary Guards.

In retaliation for the attacks, the Revolutionary Guards launched several ballistic missiles early Monday toward two U.S. bases in Jordan. The Jordanian military said it had intercepted the missiles before they reached their targets. Later Monday morning, the United Arab Emirates said it had neutralized a drone in its airspace.

Some confusion prevailed around midday Monday over the location targeted by the U.S. airstrikes. Initially, U.S. sources denied that Larak Island had been targeted, saying instead that the raids had struck Kharg Island. But by Monday evening, a U.S. official confirmed that Larak had indeed been hit.

In any event, President Donald Trump offered a significant clarification on Monday, saying that “the energy center of Kharg Island is being reduced to rubble.”

The White House chief also said that the US military would respond to the missile attacks launched by the Revolutionary Guards early Monday. “There will be a response, and we are going to hit them hard,” President Trump said, suggesting that the U.S. retaliation could come overnight Monday. Against this backdrop, a senior U.S. official said Monday that President Trump was considering a plan to resume airstrikes against the Revolutionary Guards in an effort to prevent them from laying mines again in the Strait of Hormuz. It is worth recalling that the Trump administration recently said that the U.S. military had completed mine-clearing operations in the Strait, which would explain the Revolutionary Guards’ attempts to mine it again.

To close this chapter on the Iran-U.S. war of attrition, the Revolutionary Guards said Monday that any U.S. attack on Iranian positions would be followed by a response “ten times stronger, given that there is no target in the region beyond our reach.” The threat was implicitly criticized Monday evening by the Iranian president, who said that a possible resumption of military operations would not be in Iran’s interest.

Aoun in Athens

On the Lebanese front, President Joseph Aoun paid an official visit to Athens on Monday, where he held talks with his Greek counterpart, Konstantinos Tasoulas, and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. President Tasoulas stressed on the occasion that talks between Lebanon and Israel would help Lebanon achieve its independence and foster an atmosphere of prosperity, in line with the implementation of Resolution 1701.

On the ground, Israeli aircraft carried out four strikes late Monday afternoon on the town of Mansouri, in the Tyre district.