Strikes in Syria and tensions with Turkey: Israel expands the scope of its attacks

The Israeli state appears determined to counter Turkish ambitions in Syria, drawing a lukewarm response from Washington. On Iran, the United States is now favoring a strategy of economic strangulation. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is facing increasing U.S. pressure.

In the Middle East, the major development of the week of August 17–23 was the standoff between Israel and Turkey in Syria. The affair began on Tuesday with a strike on the Abu al-Duhur airport in the province of Idlib, in southwestern Syria — out of service since the start of the Syrian war, but home to a presence of the new Syrian army under Ahmad al-Sharaa's authority.

The eight strikes immediately drew condemnation from the Syrian government, which blamed Israel. A statement from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights provided an initial clue as to the cause of the raids: Turkish troops had deployed to the site shortly before the strikes, with the aim of rehabilitating the damaged facility.

Israel's claim of responsibility came only two days later, from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said he had sent a "clear" message to both Syria and Turkey. He accused Ankara of seeking to establish a foothold on Syrian soil by setting up a base at Abu al-Duhur. Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir underscored the point by visiting Israeli forces stationed in southern Syria and asserting that his country would not tolerate any hostile presence along its borders.

A new Israeli strike on Syrian territory took place on Saturday, near the occupied Golan Heights. Also on Saturday, an Israeli drone targeted a vehicle in southwestern Syria. Syria denounced the attacks as violations of its sovereignty and called for a UN condemnation.

The Israeli-Turkish escalation continued to intensify throughout the week. While denying any military presence on Syrian soil, Turkey declared it would not "fall into the trap" set by Prime Minister Netanyahu by being drawn into an armed conflict — a statement that suggests a ceiling to this escalation.

Yet the verbal hostilities continued to escalate, bringing the deep animosity between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Netanyahu into full public view. As Israelis branded him an "antisemitic dictator," Erdoğan ultimately issued an "international arrest warrant" against Netanyahu for war "crimes" in connection with the crackdown on the Gaza Flotilla, which the Israeli military had intercepted in May to prevent it from reaching the Gaza Strip.

Israeli-Syrian meeting in Amman

With this direct Israeli strike on Syrian territory, the Jewish state has significantly complicated an already highly complex regional situation. Its Turkish adversary has just signed a mutual defense agreement with two other Sunni powers, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Moreover, Turkey maintains friendly relations with the United States: at the NATO summit held in Turkey a few weeks ago, U.S. President Donald Trump spoke of Erdoğan in glowing terms.

This would help explain the less-than-enthusiastic reaction from Trump's envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, who described the Israeli strike as "unnecessary escalation." Barrack also suggested that the Israeli escalation was a "political maneuver" by Netanyahu, with critical elections in Israel just weeks away in which the Likud leader's political survival is at stake. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz hit back on Saturday, insisting that he had shared "intelligence with the United States" ahead of the strike, and accusing Barrack of making statements "full of inaccuracies and positions that contradict" President Trump's own line.

Indeed, a confrontation between two giants would have unpredictable consequences, so why would Israel take that risk? Netanyahu's electoral ambitions may offer part of the answer, but they are not sufficient on their own. Israeli officials have used phrases such as "Turkey's attempts to destabilize the region" and a desire to "prevent Turkish entrenchment," which seem to suggest they fear that Turkey could fill the vacuum left by a retreat of Iranian influence over the Levant.

It is worth noting in this regard that this explosive issue was at the center of a meeting held Sunday in Amman between Syrian Foreign Minister Assaad al-Shaibani and the new Mossad director, Roman Gofman. The talks aimed to defuse tensions between Syria and Israel following the strike on Abu al-Duhur airport.

This Israeli-Syrian meeting came after a recent statement by Minister Shaibani, who announced the imminent resumption of negotiations between Damascus and Tel Aviv aimed at finalizing a security agreement between the two countries. The broad outlines of this agreement had been agreed upon earlier this year.

Trump's economic war

On the Iranian front, it appears that the American decision to replace military escalation with economic pressure — or even an economic war — remains in effect. New U.S. sanctions against Iran are being considered, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to hold a press conference on the matter on Monday.

Economic pressure on Iran dominated statements from both sides this week. President Trump explicitly announced "total economic war" against Iran, warning "any country, airport, company, financial institution, or government entity" that offers a "lifeline" to the Iranian regime.

Iran's response was to label the economic pressure and sanctions threats as "economic terrorism." Iran also resorted to threats against any country that participates in economic restrictions against it, through the voice of the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei.

What further deepened Iran's economic isolation this week was the decision by the United Arab Emirates to sever all ties with Tehran, following an unclaimed missile strike. The UAE is a critical partner for Iran, but the Gulf state has markedly accelerated its alignment with Israel and the United States during this war.

This week also marked the end of the 60-day deadline set out in the Islamabad agreement, signed by Washington and Tehran in June to reach a final deal. President Trump himself announced that no further discussions are taking place, urging Iran to "surrender" and declaring once again — with an enigmatic smirk — that the Strait of Hormuz is "American territory." The U.S. president also suggested there are no longer any viable interlocutors in Iran.

On the Iranian side, despite the ferocity of the verbal attacks, reports of genuine economic and social suffocation are multiplying, as are reports of repression by the authorities through summary executions of opponents, teenagers, and young university students in particular. Could this be what prompted Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's statement at the end of the week, suggesting it is time to end the war with the United States? This moderate Iranian voice was careful, of course, to placate the hardliners by adding that Tehran should consider this possibility "as long as it is in a position of strength."

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf, for his part, defied the United States by announcing on Saturday "new security and economic cooperation arrangements" with neighboring countries, which he pointedly refrained from naming. The former Revolutionary Guard commander visited Iraq this week, as that country makes clear its determination to disarm all illegal factions — primarily pro-Iranian ones — by September 30. Yet another sign of Iran's waning influence in the region?

Sanctions against Hezbollah

Reports of upcoming U.S. sanctions against Iran were preceded this week by sanctions targeting individuals suspected of financing Hezbollah in Lebanon, with the United States making clear that these measures stem from the Shia party's ties to Iran's Revolutionary Guards. They came in the wake of remarks by Edward Gabriel, president of the American Task Force for Lebanon (ATFL), during a visit to Beirut, in which he stated — in response to a journalist's question — that President Trump would be open to engaging with Hezbollah, but that the group does not appear to be "ready" to do so.