Middle East War: Are We Heading Toward a More Open Escalation?

Over the past twenty-four hours, a battery of indicators on the ground suggests that the war between Iran and the axis formed by Israel and the United States is on the verge of crossing a new threshold–an escalation from which Lebanon is not escaping.

On the thirteen day of the military operation dubbed “Epic Fury” by US President Donald Trump, tensions have significantly surged across the dual Iran-Israel and Lebanon-Israel fronts, marked by a striking synchronicity between Hezbollah and Tehran.

The overnight intensification of missile exchanges between Tehran and Tel Aviv–occurring just as Hezbollah announced on Wednesday evening the launch of Operation “Eaten Straw” (an allusion to Quranic account of Abraha’s army, decimated by clay stones dropped by birds)–is a direct consequence of rising hostilities around the strategic Strait of Hormuz. This flashpoint now threatens to become a decisive turning point in the ongoing conflict.

For Washington, the security of tankers and merchant vessels transiting the strait remains a red line–one that Tehran has unhesitatingly crossed, sending global oil prices into a tailspin. It is a strategy that US President Donald Trump has warned against, yet one that Iran persists in wielding as a weapon to exert maximum pressure on him by destabilizing international market.

Since Israel targeted fuel depots in Tehran last Sunday, the Mullahs’ regime has retaliated by striking oil fields and storage facilities across the Gulf states. Overnight Wednesday to Thursday, at least two tankers were attacked off the Iraqi coast, preceded hours earlier by a strike on a cargo ship.

This volatile climate has prompted Gulf countries to slash their oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency.

The Mullahs’ regime, currently fighting for its very survival, is using every means at its disposal, declaring itself ready for a war of attrition. For now, however, this stance has failed to deter its adversaries, who remain resolute in seeing their military operation through to the end, as repeatedly affirmed by both Tel Aviv and Washington.

So far, its strategy appears to have had been counterproductive. After blowing hot and cold over the past few days by suggesting that the war could end very soon, President Trump declared on Wednesday evening that Washington “must finish the job” in Iran, insisting there would be no “stopping halfway or leaving too early.” While he claimed that “Iran is close to defeat,” he remained elusive regarding the ultimate war aims: is the goal regime change– a possibility alluded to at the conflict’s outset–or merely the neutralization of the nuclear threat or Tehran’s capacity to develop ballistic missiles both of which pose a direct threat to the United States?

His statement echoes that of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is more unequivocal regarding the war aims: the dismantling of the Mullahs’ regime due to the existential threat it poses to his country, and its military arm, Hezbollah.

In this perspective, Tel Aviv is considering expanding its military operation in Lebanon. Its Defense Minister, Israel Katz, announced this on Thursday, the day after a restricted security council meeting was convened to discuss the following steps for the military engagement in Lebanon where, according to Tel Aviv media, the Israeli army occupies no longer five, but eighteen strategic points in view of a potential ground incursion.

Israel Katz announced that an order has been given to the Israeli army to prepare to “extend its operations in Lebanon,” warning of a possible occupation of Lebanese territories to ensure the security of northern Israeli villages, should the government fail to end the Hezbollah’s bellicose activities.

Israel also declared itself determined to act “everywhere in Lebanon, from the north to the south, including the Bekaa,” while the Lebanese government still struggles to curb the murderous and destructive madness of this organization.

One week after its historic decision to ban Hezbollah’s paramilitary activities and initiate prosecutions against those launching missiles at Israel, the government has still not honored its commitment. Instead, it remains mired in managing the humanitarian crisis born from the hellish adventure into which Iran’s local agents have embarked Lebanon and the Lebanese people.

The Council of Ministers, meeting on Thursday, thus decided to summon the Iranian Chargé d’Affaires to address the presence of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps representatives in Lebanon.

Yet, there was not a single word regarding Hezbollah’s activities or the mission with which the army and security forces had been tasked to contain them.

Return, therefore, to square one–that of the incapacity of a state which believes that Lebanon and the Lebanese have much to lose if it ventures onto this minefield, while the majority of Lebanese, across all affiliations, desire only one thing: to finish with Hezbollah and its criminal activities.