Kharg Island, a New Card in Trump's Hands

The war between the Iranian Islamic Republic, on the one hand, and the American-Israeli axis, indirectly including Europe and the Gulf countries as well as Turkey, on the other hand, concludes its second week this Saturday, March 14. This first phase of the conflict focused essentially, on the Western side, on the elimination, from the first hours of the offensive on February 28, of some forty members of the Iranian military and political high command, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, followed by a massive and continuous aerial bombardment aimed at destroying the regime's military and administrative infrastructures.

On the Iranian side, military operations consisted of ballistic missile and drone strikes directed against Israeli territory, but also against Gulf countries, alongside the reactivation, at dawn on March 2, of the South Lebanon front.

The end of this second week of war was marked by a major development of great strategic significance: the bombing by American aviation of military and civilian installations and the air defense structure of the Iranian island of Kharg, located north of the Persian Gulf, about twenty kilometers from the Iranian coast.

Often referred to as the 'jewel in the crown' of the Iranian oil industry or also Iran's 'energy Achilles' heel', Kharg Island has always represented Iran's true economic lung. And for good reason: nearly 90 percent of Iran's oil exports pass through this island, easily accessible by large supertankers due to its deep waters, unlike other ports. The island also offers an infrastructure that allows it to accommodate several supertankers simultaneously and store no less than 35 million barrels of oil.

The highly strategic importance of Kharg Island allowed President Donald Trump to acquire a trump card in the standoff that emerged a few days ago around the Strait of Hormuz and the Pasdaran's attempts to block free maritime navigation on this vital transport route. The White House chief thus clearly emphasized on Saturday that American aviation had indeed destroyed the island's military, air, and maritime installations but refrained from attacking the oil infrastructure.

For President Trump, the equation is clear: if the Iranian regime attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz, US aviation will destroy Kharg's oil facilities, which will lead to the economic and financial asphyxiation of the Islamic Republic. Oil exports are indeed Iran's main source of revenue.

To match words with action, the American army decided to dispatch 2500 Marines as reinforcements to the Middle East and Gulf region, which fueled rumors circulating on Saturday about a possible US landing in Kharg to resolve the Strait of Hormuz issue. It seems evident in this context that the outcome of this delicate standoff will have a certain impact on the global oil price and consequently on the price of gasoline at the pump and consumer goods. This impact is already being felt as Iran continues its missile strikes against Gulf oil-producing countries, notably the United Arab Emirates where activity at the port of Fujairah was interrupted on Saturday due to a fire caused by a missile strike.

The other 'hot spots'

Regarding the other 'hot spots' of the conflict, Friday night and Saturday were marked by the now traditional air raids and missile strikes, targeting the southern suburbs and several villages in South Lebanon, as well as northern Israel and Galilee. In parallel, the Israeli army continued its slow advance in certain sectors of the country's southern region. The Israeli Minister of Defense emphasized in this regard that 'the conflict has entered a new phase', which lends credence to the theory of a possible prolonged Israeli occupation of the South Lebanon area located south of the Litani.

Regionally, the US embassy in Baghdad was targeted by a missile strike which caused minor material damage, while the Iraqi government announced the adoption of special measures aimed at preventing any new aggression against French interests in Iraq, as was the case two days ago.