Elimination of Larijani and Basij Chief Heightens Pressure on Iran

The elimination by Israel of Ali Larijani – head of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council and one of the Islamic Republic’s key power brokers – along with the commander of the Basij militia, the formidable Iranian police force, Gholamreza Soleimani, will undoubtedly mark a turning point in the war between Iran and the Israel-US axis.

Both men were killed in targeted Israeli strikes on the Iranian capital overnight on Monday, Israeli Defense Minister, Israel Katz, officially announced early Tuesday morning. As of late afternoon, however, Tehran had neither confirmed nor denied the reports. Iranian media merely announced an “imminent televised address” by Ali Larijani – echoing the scenario that preceded Tehran’s official confirmation of the death of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was also killed in Israeli strikes on 28 February 2026 – before broadcasting a handwritten message attributed to Larijani. This was accompanied by a statement from the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, pledging to “continue the war until the defeat of the United States and Israel.”

Those are the facts. In practice, Israel has dealt another major blow to Iran, the effects of which, however, extend well beyond the structure of the Islamic Republic’s military and police apparatus. Following the killing of Ali Khamenei, Iranian leaders had indeed indicated that a four-tier succession chain had been put in place within this structure – a message intended as much for Tel Aviv and Washington as for the Iranian public, who are desperately seeking an end to the criminal dictatorship of the Mullahs.

On the military front, the assassination of Larijani highlights, once again, the supremacy of the Israeli–US axis, which thus appears to be steadily moving closer to its war objectives: to eliminate – or at least significantly weaken – the current regime in Tehran, and to prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring or developing ballistic or nuclear weapons in the future.

In this war, Tel Aviv and Washington retain the strategic initiative, as illustrated in particular by targeted assassinations and military operations. In doing so, they maintain steadily increasing pressure on Tehran, which remains locked in a largely defensive posture, following an approach that – unlike that of its two adversaries – does not appear to follow a well-defined strategy. Eighteen days after the outbreak of the military conflict, the Islamic Republic continues its routine aerial attacks on US bases, as well as on civilian targets in Gulf countries, while also targeting Israel, simultaneously with Hezbollah operating from Lebanon.

According to AFP, the US embassy was targeted twice, just a few hours apart, on Monday and Tuesday.

A projectile also struck a hotel located in Baghdad’s ultra-protected Green Zone. Late in the evening, Iranian drones targeted one of the southern Iraq’s main oil fields – currently out of operation and already hit last Friday – also according to AFP.

Yet even by disrupting the navigation of oil tankers and cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz, much to Washington’s frustration, as it struggles to rally its European partners to secure this strategic point for international trade – Tehran still appears unable to generate any meaningful inflection point capable of altering the course of the ongoing war or, at the very least, of bringing the United States to the negotiating table.

Furthermore, considering the latter point, the assassination of Ali Larijani also carries particular political significance – insofar as it appears to confirm what President Trump has reiterated on several occasions in recent days: that talks with Tehran are not, for now, a priority, with precedence instead given to achieving the war’s stated objectives.

Although part of Iran’s hardline establishment, Ali Larijani – a trusted confidant of Ali Khamenei – played a central role in the talks Iran conducted over its nuclear program and its relations with Gulf countries. His death deprives Teheran of a key interlocutor with the international community and could potentially weaken its negotiating capacity – should the regime endure – in any future dialogue within the framework of the “new Middle East” now taking shape. “We are shaping a new Middle East, forged through power,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated on Tuesday, according to Israeli media.

The assassination of the Basij commander – the militia responsible for bloodily suppressing popular protests against the Mullahs’ regime in Iran – also aligns with the objectives the Israeli–US axis is seeking to achieve: effecting change in Iran.

The loss of its leader, while his successor, whoever that may be, remains in the Israeli crosshairs, could provide Iranians with a renewed opportunity to reignite their protest movements.

The big question, however, remains how Iran will respond to this latest blow. Will it close the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to increase pressure on the United States? Will it push its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, to step up attacks against Israel? So far, the latter has shown that – aside from prompting Israel to strike more aggressively in areas where it is based – it is incapable of helping its Iranian patron change the course of events.

On the contrary, an escalation of Hezbollah’s military operations against Israel would only increase the risk of a large-scale Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon – an option Tel Aviv has been openly discussing for some time and for which, according to Israeli media, it has reportedly mobilized nearly 450,000 reservists. In this logic of suicidal escalation, Hezbollah thus risks dragging Lebanon further into a deadly spiral of violence, serving solely the interest of its Iranian patron.