War in Iran: race against time between negotiations and escalation

The deadline given by US President Donald Trump to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to restore free maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz expires today, Tuesday, at 8 PM Washington time (overnight, Middle East time). Failing that, President Trump could give his green light to a very large-scale strike against Iran. Late Tuesday afternoon (Beirut time), heavy suspense reigned in all the capitals of the region regarding the course events might take. An agreement could be reached in the final fifteen minutes, especially since throughout the day on Tuesday, April 7, the White House kept the door open for a resumption of negotiations, but it was unclear whether the Iranians had softened their position.

Around midday (Levant time), the US president used even stronger terms, stating that what could happen in the event of escalation « could wipe out an entire civilization ».

According to CNN, Iranian negotiators rejected the proposal for a simple ceasefire, making a counter-proposal to the Americans for a lasting peace, which Trump considered « a step forward but not enough ». At the same time, Iran’s ambassador in Islamabad stated that negotiations have reached a « critical and delicate » point.

Parallel to Donald Trump's threats, the Revolutionary Guards are not lowering their tone, considering his remarks « baseless » and assuring that they continue the fight. In this context, late Monday night, the regime called on the country's youth to form « human chains » around threatened energy plants… apparently not hesitating to expose adolescents and young people to death to accuse their enemy of crimes against humanity. Furthermore, Iran's ambassador to Kuwait called on Gulf countries to do everything to avoid a « tragedy in the region ».

Military operations

On the ground, bombardments did not decrease in intensity during Monday night and Tuesday. Tehran and several cities were thus targeted by American and Israeli missiles. In recent hours, the strategic island of Kharg, from where Iranian oil is exported, has been targeted by strikes. Another target has generated much discussion: a synagogue in Tehran that was « entirely destroyed » by a strike, according to Iranian media reports cited by AFP. New bridges were also hit, and Israeli aviation is beginning to execute its threats against railways in certain regions.

Iranian missiles also continue to fall on Gulf countries and Israel (in Israel's case, simultaneously with Hezbollah rockets). A petrochemical plant was hit in Saudi Arabia, probably in response to attacks against the petrochemical industry in Iran by Israeli aviation.

Another consequence of the war is that the bridge connecting Saudi Arabia to Bahrain has been closed as a precaution by Saudi authorities. For Bahrain, this is the only possible exit route, as the airport of this small Gulf state has been closed since the beginning of the war at the end of February.

On Tuesday, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei made headlines again: European intelligence reports relayed by the international press state that he is in a comatose state, asserting that he is neither conscious nor capable of making decisions, and is being treated for serious injuries in the Iranian city of Qom. This again confirms the complete grip of the Revolutionary Guards Corps on the country.

Another serious development this Tuesday: a shooting in front of the Israeli consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, knowing that no Israeli diplomat is currently on Turkish soil, according to a source close to the matter at AFP. The terrorist attack left two Turkish police officers lightly wounded. Until early afternoon, no information on the identity and nationality of the attackers had yet been communicated. However, such disclosures may not be long in coming, given that, according to CNN, one of the assailants was killed and the other two wounded, thus logically being in the hands of the Turkish authorities.

This incident raises serious questions, especially if a link with the war in Iran is established: are we facing a period of attacks as this conflict bogs down and reaches a stalemate?

Moving funerals in Yahchouch

In Lebanon, although fighting continues on the front, it is the Israeli attack against the Christian region of Ain Saadeh, east of Beirut, targeting a Hezbollah official who escaped death, that continues to dominate the news. This attack, which resulted in three deaths among the residents of this building, including a Lebanese Forces official, Pierre Moawad, his wife, and a neighbor, raises serious questions about the protection of Lebanese civilians in areas considered « safe » against the infiltration of fighters pursued by the Israeli army. The full truth about the potential presence of a fighter in this building was not yet known in all its details on Tuesday.

Be that as it may, moving funerals took place in Pierre Moawad's home village. The two coffins were carried aloft to the sound of automatic weapon fire. In the crowd, much anger was expressed by the victims' relatives, who wondered why they had paid the price of a war initiated solely by Hezbollah, demanding to know the full truth and for justice to be done. The third victim was buried east of Beirut.

The other question concerning Lebanese people these days is that of the Masnaa border crossing, the main one linking Beirut to Damascus, located in the Beqaa. This border crossing was threatened by Israel last Saturday, but it was not targeted. However, it has been closed since then. On Tuesday, Lebanese Interior Minister Ahmad al-Hajjar stated that diplomatic efforts were underway to secure its reopening. According to some reports, Lebanese and Syrian authorities have succeeded, through their intense contacts, in preventing or postponing a possible strike, but have so far failed to obtain its reopening.

Finally, the Christian border villages still resisting on the front line in the South are more isolated than ever. A convoy led by Apostolic Nuncio Paolo Borgia could not reach the encircled village of Debl on Tuesday and had to turn back due to an untimely intervention by Hezbollah militiamen…