The Levant in Turmoil: Lebanese and Syrian Perspectives (2/3)

The Levant has, over the past two years, witnessed profound and dramatic upheavals that have reshaped the region’s geopolitical landscape. The chain of events set in motion since Hamas’s deadly attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip on 7 October 2023 seems to have paved the way for the emergence of a new Middle East, as Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, repeatedly asserts.

As 2025 draws to a close, what overall picture, what prospects, and what political and security assessment can be made of this region? By stepping back and looking at the wider picture, it becomes easier to examine closely the developments under way and the sweeping changes that have unfolded across Lebanon, Syria, Israel, Gaza (and the Palestinian territories), as well as Iran.

Already severely shaken by the apocalyptic explosion at Beirut’s port on 4 August 2020 and by the economic and financial collapse of 2019, Lebanon finds itself, at the end of this year, grappling with the far-reaching repercussions of the indefensible – and absurd – “support war” (for Hamas) launched by Hezbollah on 8 October 2023. This armed conflict, seemingly instigated by the Iranian mullahs’ regime, resulted in the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, the elimination of the Shiite party’s military command, the destruction of numerous villages in South Lebanon, and Israel’s occupation of five strategic positions within Lebanese territory.

The President’s Commitments

In the shadow of such a context, it has become imperative to press Israel to put an end to its tendency to make use of Lebanese territory and airspace at its discretion, for better or for worse. There is, however, a corresponding obligation: the Lebanese state, backed by its population, must decide to implement the UN resolutions as well as all the commitments made by President Joseph Aoun in his inaugural address on the day of his election to the highest office of the State, on 9 January 2025.

The Lebanese population must support the State’s efforts in this regard, fully aware that the necessary dismantling of Hezbollah’s military apparatus and the total disarmament of the party may not occur without friction yet will ultimately benefit all of Lebanon’s communities – and first and foremost Lebanese Shiites. Such resolve must be expressed without equivocation. In this framework, Syria, Iran and Israel must acknowledge that this is a deliberate initiative on Lebanon’s part, one that will be pursued to its conclusion and is, in the end, in the interest of the entire region. Faced with the self-centered and reductive behavior of the main Levantine actors, it is worth noting that Lebanon can – and should – play the role of a catalyst, setting in motion a broader, much-needed dynamic of recovery.

As for Lebanon’s strictly internal situation, the bonds that tie its various communities together need to be rewoven – and only President Joseph Aoun can set this new “reweaving”. To that end, he must make it unmistakably clear through his actions that he was elected President to lead, in every sense of the word. Without firm resolve, without a clear and unequivocal will on his part, without the courage he has demonstrated throughout his career, Lebanon will not be able to restore the flourishing, prosperous and peaceful State it once was.

The Syrian Earthquake

The upheaval that has had the greatest impact on Lebanon over the past months has undoubtedly been the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. For half a century, this Syrian dictatorship imposed an occupation and a hegemony on Lebanon that profoundly altered the country’s political landscape.

The new order emerged in Syria in the wake of the sudden – yet foreseeable – vacuum created by the collapse of the Assad regime. This abrupt fall of Baathist power was accelerated by the astonishing lack of reaction from the regime’s popular base, alongside the disarray and collapse of its troops. For now, however, the new regime lacks robust foundations internally. The abuses committed against minorities – without firm intervention from the new authorities – further weaken the regime.

President Ahmed al-Shareh was received, with all the honours due to his rank, by Presidents Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron. He is now called upon to prove that such honours were indeed deserved. His future – and that of Syria, or at least the part under his control – depends on the distance he is able to keep between his country, on the one hand, and Hamas and Iran, on the other. His survival depends on it.

Next article: The Levant in Turmoil: Iran Caught in the Tornado