Analyze

Pope Leo XIV’s visit to Lebanon is not an ordinary event, it is a historic moment with exceptional meaning. In this land of message, and across the region and the world, major confrontations converge: peace in the face of war, dialogue in the face of violence, moderation in the face of fanaticism, diversity in the face of uniformity, humanization in the face of populism, the constitution in the face of martial rule, the law in the face of chaos, citizenship in the face of Minoritism and Majoritism, the state in the face of non-statehood, governance in the face of corruption. Lebanon and the free world are experiencing these struggles at a time when the country holds a rare opportunity to prove its ability to rise again.

We have long lived under the shadow of the imagined power of Iranian propaganda — or let us say, the propaganda of the Axis of Resistance — which had made Iran into a great, cohesive, and untouchable power. Events have shown that there is a vast gulf between actual power and narrative power. This had already happened with Hezbollah: many had believed in the image of its absolute supremacy. Iran deceived us, through its followers and its media army — disguised television channels, paid journalists, digital influencers of every kind, and others — by propagating its fictional narrative about: the image of technological supremacy, and the image of powerful allies who support it (China, Russia), thus fashioning in public opinion the image of an "unbreakable axis."

The process of rebuilding the Lebanese state appears to have stalled, despite some progress on the technocratic front. After more than a year of the Hezbollah’s so-called “support war” and the party’s waning influence on the regional stage, the election of the President sparked a wave of disproportionate euphoria. The formation of a promising government had raised hopes of restoring the state’s sovereignty. Yet, a year on, that euphoria has given way to disappointment, and hope has all but evaporated. Hezbollah’s refusal, at Iran’s instigation, to bow to the will of the majority of Lebanese and to hand over its weapons to the state, coupled with its violation of UN Resolution 1701, has long served – and continues to serve – as a pretext for Israeli harassment targeting its leaders and infrastructure. This dynamic obstructs any real progress in restoring the Lebanese state.

The US military strike in Venezuela, followed by the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro and his transfer outside the country, sent a powerful shockwave through international politics. The arrest triggered widespread international condemnation, with many states and organizations describing it as a violation of international law and an assault on Venezuela’s national sovereignty. International law experts, including in analytical pieces published by The Guardian , point out that the American operation in Venezuela violates the United Nations Charter, particularly the provision prohibiting the use of force in the absence of self-defence or explicit authorization from the Security Council.

The visit of Pope Leo XIV to Lebanon was not merely a passing religious or pastoral stop; it was a profoundly political moment in one of the region’s most sensitive phases. A visit that carried messages to Lebanon’s domestic scene as much as it carried messages outward — specifically to Israel, and to the international powers holding the threads of the regional game. Yet the question that resonated strongly after the Pope’s departure was this: Did the visit put an end to the idea of an Israeli attack on Lebanon? The answer is not simple. Between the immense symbolic value of the visit and the cold strategic calculations along the southern border, one clear truth emerges: the visit granted Lebanon a temporary psychological and political breathing space, but it did not erase the logic of war. Still, together with the escalating French diplomatic activity and the President’s visit to the Sultanate of Oman, it helped create a new political and diplomatic deterrence network — one that may slow down a decision for war, and perhaps even redraw its terms.

In 1957, the historian and philosopher of history Arnold Toynbee delivered a lecture at the Cénacle Libanais entitled « Le Liban, expression de l’Histoire ». After exploring the complexity of Lebanese history and its interactions with surrounding civilisations, and after analysing how Lebanon—owing to its geographic position and its multi-confessional composition —has long served as a meeting point as well as a battleground for competing religions and identities, Toynbee concluded his talk with a remarkably prescient warning. He said: If, in the Levant, the frontier between the two global empires—American and Russian—were to be drawn along the crest of Mount Anti-Lebanon, the Lebanese Republic would risk sharing the fate of the State of Israel. Like Israel, Lebanon would not be viable if it were to find itself in a permanent state of hostility with its neighbors to the East.

The Levant unmistakably reached a crucial tipping point on 7 October 2023, as Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israeli territory from the Gaza Strip. The circumstances and repercussions of this swift and bloody offensive sent a seismic shock through Gaza and Israel, of course, but also across other key centers of the Levant, notably Lebanon and Syria, and, by extension, Iran and Yemen. The devastating impact of Hamas’s attack on Gaza and its population has once again brought the entire Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the forefront. Some had hoped that the events of 7 October 2023 might lead to a breakthrough in the longstanding Middle Eastern conflict, which has blighted the region for over seven decades. At this stage, this is far from being the case, at least in appearance. It is particularly regrettable that the Palestinian Authority has been unable to regain the initiative and embark on a swift and promising dialogue with Israel.

Pope Leo XIV is set to bring a powerful message to Lebanon: “Blessed are the peacemakers.” A unifying call, with deep religious resonance, that resonate cross its religious communities, while carrying a clear political weight for a country exhausted by decades of conflict – a nation for whom the time has come to leave the tunnels of violence behind and step into the light of peace. Firstly: Supporting the Christian Presence and Affirming Its National Role This message stems from the Holy See’s careful attention to what Lebanon has endured – and continues to endure – particularly its Christian population. For the Vatican, Lebanon is the most sensitive “laboratory” in the Middle East for Muslim–Christian coexistence, and a potential model of what John Paul II, three decades ago, described as a “message-country.”