Iran-U.S.: 48 Decisive Hours Amid Prospects of Peace and a Surge in Rhetoric

On the Iranian-American front, May 6 unfolded as a day of sustained rhetoric escalation and conflicting statements. These developments followed the surprise announcement by US President Donald Trump declaring the end of the offensive phase of the conflict – an operation dubbed “Project Liberty” – in the Strait of Hormuz, while maintaining a blockade on Iranian ports.

A report widely cited across the media, published earlier in the day by Axios, pointed to the possibility of an imminent agreement between Tehran and Washington. It highlighted what it described as a highly consequential 48-hour window for reaching a peace deal.

The report outlined key issues likely to lie at the heart of any prospective talks, including a suspension of nuclear enrichment for an as-yet undetermined number of years, in exchange for the release of Iranian funds and the lifting of sanctions. This would, in turn, be followed by the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The prospect of a near-term agreement was also echoed by a Pakistani source – reportedly acting as a mediator in the conflict – in comments to Reuters.

In his multiple statements throughout the day, Trump said that a deal appeared to be within reach, that enriched uranium in Iran would be exported to the United States, and that monitors would be allowed into Iranian territory. While he appears eager to secure a breakthrough on the Iranian front ahead of his trip to China next week, the US president ruled out the possibility of direct bilateral talks in the near term, given the current state of contacts. He nevertheless maintained his threatening rhetoric, saying he would bomb Iran with unprecedented intensity if no agreement is reached.

Separately, a US intelligence report cited by Reuters said the Department of Homeland Security believes the war in Iran may have been a “possible motive” behind the latest assassination attempt against Trump on April 26 in Washington.

On the Iranian side, signals remain equally mixed. A source at the Foreign Ministry said the US proposal was under review, according to an Iranian news agency. Later, the ministry confirmed that exchanges of proposals were continuing through Pakistan. However, earlier in the day, an Iranian MP wrote on X that the Axios report “reflects American wishes” rather than reality. Mohammad Ghalibaf, the speaker of parliament, also adopted a more confrontational tone, accusing the United States of attempting to pressure Iran into submission through economic coercion and of relying on internal divisions in anticipation of the effort’s failure. Is Ghalibaf, who has become a central figure in Iranian political life, seeking to conceal what numerous reports have suggested are deep internal divisions within a regime strained by war?

On the ground, a vessel operated by French shipping company CMA CGM was struck on Wednesday by Iranian fire, a sign of rising tensions and persistent risks in the Strait.

In other developments, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to China after visiting Russia. His remarks underscored Tehran’s emphasis on its Chinese ally. He said he had told his Chinese counterpart that Iran was “serious” about negotiations with Washington, but would accept nothing less than a “fair and comprehensive” agreement. For his part, China’s foreign minister said Beijing was “ready to help reduce tensions.”

The two countries are bound by significant commercial ties, including Iranian exports of hydrocarbons to China at preferential prices. Some observers argue that China is the real strategic focus of the broader confrontation, and it is also the destination of Trump’s upcoming visit in the coming days.

Lebanon-Israel: Talks Move Forward Amid Ongoing Israeli Strikes

On the Lebanese front, direct negotiations are moving ahead, with reports of a possible new meeting next week between Lebanese and Israeli delegations in Washington, at the State Department. The talks would reportedly be led by former ambassador Simon Karam, likely accompanied by a military representative, in addition to Ambassador Nada Mouawad.

The question of a potential meeting between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – sought by US President Donald Trump at the White House – has not yet been decided. The Lebanese position remains unchanged, with Aoun saying such a meeting is not justified at this stage.

May 6 also saw a brief easing of tensions between two key poles of power in Lebanon, President Joseph Aoun and parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who also heads the Amal Movement, an ally of Hezbollah. The first sign of this thaw was a meeting between prime minister Nawaf Salam and Berri at the parliamentary headquarters in Ain el-Tineh, Beirut. It was seen as a preliminary step toward a postponed trilateral meeting at the presidential palace in Baabda. A second sign came in remarks by Berri to the pan-Arab broadcaster Al Jazeera, in which he said relations with the presidency were “solid and important for stability.” He also stressed that any agreement with Israel would require guarantees, arguing that Tel Aviv does not respect its commitments.

Nawaf Salam also addressed the issue on Tuesday during a press conference, saying the negotiations were not aimed at “normalization” but at “peace.” He emphasized the need for a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory according to a defined timeline. Asked about a possible meeting between Aoun and Netanyahu in Washington, he said such a meeting would be premature, stressing the importance of consolidating the ceasefire, which he said is being violated daily by both belligerents – Hezbollah and the Israeli army – in southern Lebanon.

Another key part of the prime minister’s remarks concerned a review of Lebanon’s plan on the state monopoly of arms, in other words the disarmament of militias, particularly Hezbollah. The plan was initially adopted in August 2025 and implemented by the Lebanese army, but those efforts have been undermined since the resumption of hostilities. Salam also raised an option that has been increasingly discussed in political circles: the deployment of an “international force” in southern Lebanon, as the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) nears its end.

Evacuation Warning in West Bekaa and Strike on Beirut’s Southern Suburbs

Tensions between daily Israeli violations of the ceasefire and Hezbollah attacks continue to play out in southern Lebanon. This cycle of confrontation has persisted since the truce took effect on April 16.

Two serious developments marked May 6: an evening airstrike on Beirut’s southern suburbs – the Ghobeiri area, the first since April 16 – and the inclusion of a village in West Bekaa, Zallaya, in Israeli evacuation warnings, the first such warning outside southern Lebanon. This village was subsequently targeted in strikes, with at least one fatality reported, including the municipality’s mayor, whose home was directly hit.

Regarding the strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs, the Israeli military quickly issued a statement saying “the operation was carried out with the approval of Netanyahu,” and that it targeted the head of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force, Malek Ballout.

Netanyahu also announced shortly afterward the target of the strike, saying it aimed to “thwart the plans” of the Hezbollah elite unit. Later, Israel’s Channel 14 reported the killing of the official and other members of the unit, all of whom were present in the targeted compound.

As for the situation in southern Lebanon, it remains unchanged, with evacuation warnings affecting at least a dozen villages and continued fighting. Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, who toured the border area, said the Israeli military was prepared to expand its operations against Hezbollah, with the aim of contributing to its dismantlement and weakening.

A more unexpected development came from the Vatican. Pope Leo XIV personally called priests in Christian villages still holding out along the border area already under Israeli control. The initiative, coordinated with Apostolic Nuncio Paolo Borgia – who has visited these villages despite the risks – was described as “moving” by the priests, according to the Al-Markazia news agency. The pope reportedly reassured the clergy and encouraged them to remain patient.