Tehran plays for time as Israel escalates in Lebanon

Faced with the impatience of US President Donald Trump, eager to make progress on negotiations with Iran before his visit to China next week, Tehran is playing a carefully calculated game of detachment.

As of Thursday, the Islamic Republic had still not responded to the American proposal, announced Tuesday by President Trump, for a lasting end to the war launched on February 28. According to CNN, the response is expected within the next few hours.

Two explanations can be given for the apparent nonchalance displayed by the Islamic Republic. The first lies in the fact that Tehran still believes it can maneuver and play on the element of time, hoping to minimize the concessions it has to make to the Americans or, at the very least, to get them to lower their demands.

The other explanation could be related to internal divisions within Iran, which are preventing the development of a unified response, despite the efforts of the mullahs' regime to emphasize what it calls internal cohesion.

It is within this context that we can understand the announcement made Thursday by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian regarding a "two-hour" meeting he said he held "recently" with the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, "in an atmosphere of trust and direct dialogue." It should be noted that Khamenei has not been seen in public since his appointment in early March and was wounded during the war in the strikes that killed his father and predecessor, Ali Khamenei.

While Iran believes the United States sought to force its "surrender," it refrained from slamming the door shut. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghai stated that his country was "still examining the American plan and proposal."

In the same context, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a telephone conversation with his Pakistani counterpart, Ishaq Dar (whose country is mediating between Tehran and Washington), during which he reportedly emphasized "the importance of maintaining dialogue and diplomacy," according to Iranian news agencies. These agencies indicated that the discussion focused on "regional affairs and efforts to strengthen cooperation among countries in the region."

Over the past two days, Tehran has sent mixed signals regarding dialogue with the United States, which, along with the Gulf States, is preparing to submit a draft resolution to the UN Security Council demanding that Iran cease its attacks, disclose the location of its mines, and refrain from imposing shipping tolls. A vote is expected in the coming days.

This initiative, it should be noted, follows the Iranian attack on the United Arab Emirates, launched when Washington decided to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and escort ships trapped in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of ​​Oman.

Moreover, the United Arab Emirates announced on Thursday the creation of a committee tasked with documenting the attacks carried out by Iran in the Gulf country and their consequences, with a view to possible legal action.

The American operation, dubbed "Project Freedom," launched on Monday, reportedly lasted less than 24 hours, as President Trump decided to suspend it pending Tehran's response to his proposals. But according to NBC News, Mr. Trump's reversal on his plan to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz came after Saudi Arabia refused to allow US forces to use its airspace and bases for the operation. However, according to the Washington Post, Riyadh and Kuwait have lifted this ban.

In any case, should the Islamic Republic respond favorably to Trump's latest proposal, the announcement of the end of the war should normally be accompanied by a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Otherwise, the American president remains determined, at least in his statements, to resume targeted strikes against Iran, despite domestic opposition to this war. In this context, Democratic lawmakers have called for Washington to end its silence on Israel's nuclear posture.

A possible sign of a shift on the ground, the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle will be pre-positioned in the Gulf region, according to French authorities, as the coalition formed by London and Paris prepares to secure the Strait of Hormuz following a potential settlement.

But signs of European goodwill stop there. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot suggested on Thursday that lifting sanctions against Iran is not currently being considered. It would depend on what might be decided regarding theThe Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as long as this strategic maritime passage remains closed, he told French radio station RTL.

The French minister reiterated that a strait is "a common good of humanity that cannot under any circumstances be blocked, subject to tolls, or even used as leverage," thus indirectly expressing reservations about a possible Iranian-American agreement for the exploitation of this strait.

Lebanese-Israeli dialogue next week

While the Iranian-American issue remains stalled, the Lebanese-Israeli talks appear to be progressing rapidly. According to the Lebanese channel MTV, a third meeting is scheduled in Washington next Thursday and Friday, this time with the participation of former ambassador Simon Karam, tasked by the Lebanese authorities with leading the negotiations with the Israeli delegation.

The primary objective of this round of talks will be to halt Israeli attacks and destructive operations in southern Lebanon.

This ambition may be considered difficult given Israel's determination to weaken the pro-Iranian group as much as possible and to continue, in this context, eliminating its leaders.

The assassination of Ahmad Ghaleb Ballout, commander of Hezbollah's elite al-Radwan force, risks further complicating the task of the Lebanese negotiators. This is especially true since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear on Thursday, in claiming responsibility for the operation, that Israel remains determined to hunt down Hezbollah leaders. "I say to our enemies in the clearest possible terms: no terrorist has immunity. Anyone who threatens the State of Israel will die for their actions," he said. This was a way of clearly signaling to Iran that the Hezbollah issue remains separate from the upcoming negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, Israeli aircraft launched a series of attacks against several towns in southern Lebanon, particularly targeting the city of Nabatieh and the surrounding villages in the district of the same name. As is the case almost every day, the Israeli army ordered residents of three southern villages, located far from the border, to evacuate, while Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a series of attacks against Israeli positions in southern Lebanon.

Aside from the war, a key element of the day deserves mention: the official visit that Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is scheduled to make on Saturday to Damascus, leading a delegation from his government. On the agenda for the discussions are a series of issues related to bilateral cooperation. The agenda had been pre-established, but the war prevented the government from adhering to it.

Another noteworthy event was the attempted assassination of Hadi Aboul Hosn, a member of parliament from the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) bloc, in Qubbei, Mount Lebanon. A man who was identified and arrested threw a grenade at the parliamentarian, but it failed to detonate.

On the international stage, Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited the Vatican. His mission was to ease tensions between the Holy See and Washington following Trump's criticism of the Pope over the pontiff's stance on the war in the Middle East. According to a State Department source, Pope Leo XIV and Marco Rubio held a "friendly and constructive" meeting at the Vatican on Thursday.