United States - Iran, the war of last resort?

Bellicose statements from senior U.S. officials, followed by the deployment of substantial naval forces to the region, warnings to American citizens in the Gulf, and a heightened state of alert among Israeli forces, whose air force has conducted “maneuvers” near Iran’s borders… The United States appears to be preparing to resume large-scale strikes against Iran.

For several weeks, Washington and Tehran have been confronting each other primarily at sea: the United States is blockading Iranian ports, while the Islamic Republic is trying to exert control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Neither country has launched a major attack on land targets since early September, but that could soon change.

One thing is certain: military action will not take place before the midterm elections on November 3. Such an operation would not benefit President Trump electorally, as his popularity is falling because of inflation driven by rising oil prices following the blockages in the straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.

“Iranians are struggling to feed themselves,” Pezeshkian warns

But why does escalation seem inevitable?

The warring parties have failed to reach a diplomatic solution, despite extensive mediation efforts by allied countries such as Pakistan.

Moreover, the current status quo is no longer sustainable: the blockade is increasing pressure on Iran, while Washington is deploying substantial naval resources to maintain it. Each passing day further weakens the standing of the president and the Republicans among their voters.

For Iran, the threat is existential: President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Saturday that many Iranians were struggling to feed themselves as economic pressure on the country intensified. Tehran “must escape this state of neither war nor peace,” Mr. Pezeshkian said, without specifying how.

Jason Campbell, a researcher at the Middle East Institute in Washington, told AFP that there were “undeniably recent signs suggesting that strikes could resume soon.” He pointed in particular to the expected arrival of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, the deployment of additional Marines, and a recent show of force by the Israeli air force in the region.

He also noted that U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had traveled to Israel this week to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In his view, Donald Trump’s options are more limited than at the start of the conflict, with damage to U.S. bases in the region complicating any large-scale ground operation.

Another expert, Suzanne Maloney, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, a U.S. think tank, also quoted by AFP, noted that “most of [Iran’s] conventional military facilities have already been heavily damaged” by the strikes. Any new military campaign would therefore likely involve “more strikes on civilian infrastructure and targets that directly affect the Iranian population.”

But some doubt that intensified fighting could end the conflict. “This is a war that cannot be ended by further escalation on either side,” Suzanne Maloney said.

Jason Campbell shares that assessment: “I don’t see how a resumption of strikes against Iran, comparable to those in the first fifty days of the conflict, could significantly change the Iranian regime’s strategic calculations,” he said, noting that Tehran had already demonstrated its ability to “absorb considerable damage” without changing course.

A return to state terrorism?

Indeed, the war has tightened the grip of the regime’s hardliners—namely, the religious leaders and the Revolutionary Guards—who are less responsive to the plight of the Iranian people than elected political leaders.

The danger is that the mullahs’ regime will throw its full weight behind hybrid warfare, resorting to what it has done best for nearly five decades: a war of attrition using terrorism as a weapon.

Just yesterday, US intelligence chief Jay Clayton warned that Iran had “significantly stepped up” its efforts to target Americans in the Middle East and beyond.

In a memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Mr. Clayton said, according to a US official: “Iranian plans for deadly attacks against American citizens have reached an advanced stage, both in the Middle East and in certain other countries.” The memo was first reported by the US news outlet Axios.

Whether war is imminent or not, it is worth remembering that the Trump administration’s ultimate goal is the complete elimination of Iran’s nuclear industry. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whom Donald Trump publicly endorsed ahead of Tuesday’s parliamentary elections in Israel, believes that “overthrowing” the Iranian leadership is the only way to eliminate the threat from Tehran.