Election Ends in Deadlock, Netanyahu Remains in Charge

As ballot counting continues, the results of Israel's parliamentary elections are confirming the feared scenario: neither of the two rival blocs—one led by incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the other by centrist Gadi Eisenkot—appears able to secure a parliamentary majority to govern.

If this trend holds, Israel could face lengthy and difficult negotiations. After the previous election in 2022, it took Benjamin Netanyahu 58 days to build a coalition.

Israel's president called on political parties on Wednesday to do “everything possible” to form a governing coalition and avoid another election, a day after a vote that produced no majority and saw a dramatic breakthrough by Arab parties.

With 85.6% of votes counted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc is projected to win 53 seats, compared with 48 for Gadi Eisenkot's bloc. Neither side has reached the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset.

The count is expected to be completed on Thursday afternoon, while the final official results are due to be published on November 4. President Isaac Herzog will then meet with the leaders of the various parties before choosing who will be tasked with trying to form a government.

Arab parties: reviled kingmakers

Vilified by Benjamin Netanyahu during the campaign, the Arab parties—Raam (the United Arab List, a moderate Islamist party) and the Joint List (an alliance of the far left and nationalists)—are emerging as potential kingmakers. They appear on course to win a record 19 seats, up from 10 in the outgoing Knesset.

Gadi Eisenkot, who ruled out this option during the campaign, did not immediately respond to overtures from the two Arab parties.

Such a partnership is far from straightforward in a country where the Arab minority—nearly 20% of the population, largely made up of descendants of Palestinians who remained on their land after Israel's creation in 1948—faces severe discrimination, and where the idea of governing alongside its representatives remains unacceptable to part of the Jewish population. The Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, deepened distrust and fear of the Arab minority among some members of the Jewish majority.

Yair Golan, a leading figure on the Israeli left, which now commands only limited support, and a member of Gadi Eisenkot's bloc, has so far been the only one to call for such an alliance.

Likud, for its part, accused the Arab parties—which it claimed “support terrorism and the annihilation of the Jewish state”—of having “stolen the election,” saying it had evidence of corruption, threats and other acts of violence. The Electoral Commission, however, reported no irregularities.

What are the implications for foreign policy?

The election's outcome is being closely watched beyond Israel's borders, as the country faces growing criticism over its conduct of the devastating war in Gaza and the resurgence of violence in the occupied West Bank.

It could also affect the course of the conflict in the Middle East, with Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly threatening a new military campaign against Iran in recent days.

For now, despite the highest voter turnout in more than a quarter of a century, the results above all reveal a deeply fractured political landscape, pointing to intense negotiations in the weeks ahead.

If a deadlock follows the announcement of the final results, Benjamin Netanyahu would be the immediate beneficiary, remaining caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.

A national unity government?

A national unity government seems unlikely, given the extreme polarization of Israel's political landscape. But commentators regularly raise the idea of an alliance of so-called “Zionist” parties, excluding Arab and ultra-Orthodox parties.

A poll published in mid-October found that 55% of respondents would prefer a national unity government to another election if the vote failed to produce a clear majority.

There is a recent precedent for this scenario. In 2020, Benjamin Netanyahu and centrist Benny Gantz struck a power-sharing agreement despite their deep mutual animosity, following three elections in less than a year. The deal included a rotating premiership. But the partnership collapsed after a year, triggering another election.

Media reports in recent days have claimed that President Isaac Herzog was working behind the scenes to bring Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot together, aiming to repeat the experiment in the event of political deadlock.

But such a move would face strong resistance in both camps, particularly within the opposition, which has turned this election into a referendum on the outgoing prime minister.

Deadlock and the prospect of another election

If no candidate manages to form a government, Israelis will have to return to the polls.

The country already held four elections between April 2019 and March 2021 because its political parties were unable to agree on a lasting common agenda.

The candidate nominated by the president will normally have 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. If that effort fails, other procedures may be pursued before the Knesset is potentially dissolved.

Another election campaign would prolong political instability in a country still grappling with the aftermath of October 7 and regional conflicts.

In the meantime, Benjamin Netanyahu would remain at the head of the government, even without a parliamentary majority.