Three Years After October 7, What New Regional Order?

From Gaza to Yemen, via Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, the deadly attack by the Palestinian Hamas against Israel on October 7, 2023, will remain in the collective memory as the starting point of military and political upheavals all pointing toward the establishment of a new regional order.

In Israel, where the memory of the attack—which killed more than 1,200 civilians—was marked by several commemorative ceremonies on Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to “complete the mission” launched on October 7, 2023, referring to Tel Aviv’s relentless war against Hamas. He spoke of a “settling of accounts that is not over,” without specifying, however, whether this “mission” is limited to Hamas or also includes its backer, Iran, which is held responsible for this large-scale operation.

As is well known, the October 7 offensive had a domino effect, triggering, with unusual speed, a series of events whose consequences would have been hard to imagine in peacetime.

Who would have imagined that Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime could fall, that Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran would be decapitated and weakened, or that Lebanon itself could witness, under Washington’s auspices to be sure, direct talks with Tel Aviv aimed at curbing the murderous madness unleashed on its soil since Hezbollah decided to come to Hamas’s aid the day after the attack?

No end in sight

Three years later, the Middle East is certainly no longer the same, but the end of the path onto which it was catapulted remains out of sight.

The war raging in Yemen between the Iran-backed Houthis and the Saudi-backed government forces, with control of a strategic crossing point in the Red Sea at stake, confirms the deadlock in which the region remains trapped.

For some, it is a natural consequence of the lull observed by Israel and, above all, Washington on the regional front, as both are focused on their upcoming elections—October 27 for Israel and November 3 for the United States.

But a number of factors raise fears that, in the long term, a kind of cold war could take hold in the region, one that would be highly damaging to countries such as Lebanon and Iraq, which are expected to free themselves from Iranian influence.

These concerns stem from the outcome of the events unleashed on October 7, 2023, and in particular from the difficulty the United States and Israel have faced in achieving their war objectives.

Although decapitated, Iran retains a significant capacity to cause harm. Even though it has lost some of its positions in the region, its proxies can still act as troublemakers. The war in Yemen is a perfect example: the Houthis, who entered the fray after the weakening of Hezbollah, Iran’s main military arm in the region, have shown that they can simultaneously threaten Saudi Arabia, maritime routes, and even U.S. and Israeli interests in the region.

More importantly, the fact that they opened the Bab el-Mandeb front just as Israel was preparing to commemorate October 7 cannot be insignificant. Through this group, Tehran is still seeking to show that the dynamics of the conflict remain unchanged and that it continues to hold cards allowing it to assert itself as an indispensable regional player, despite the enormous pressure being exerted on it.

Iranian threats made on Wednesday by an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps official, who announced an upcoming blockade of “illegal maritime routes” in the Strait of Hormuz, point in the same direction.

In Lebanon, not only has Hezbollah still not been neutralized—mainly because Lebanese politics remains hostage to the calculations and timidity of those in charge—but, according to Reuters, it continues to receive logistical support from the Islamic Republic.

The news agency reported on Wednesday that Hezbollah received $200 million from Tehran last month to help its supporters displaced by the war with Israel, citing “two people directly informed about the transfer.”

If this information is confirmed, questions can be raised about the effectiveness of the measures taken to choke off Iran and dry up the funding sources of its proxies.

In Gaza, all Hamas has managed to achieve, at the cost of horrific losses, is to put the Palestinian cause back at the center of the international debate and delay Riyadh’s accession to the Abraham Accords.