Israel: The First Elections After the "Al-Aqsa Flood"

The political deadlock gripping the region today, at every level, is the product of years of investment in extremism, violence, and terrorism, in which several actors have converged, from the Israeli right to Iran, including the Islamic Republic’s instruments in the region, notably Hamas and Hezbollah. The former Syrian regime was hardly removed from these forces. It was an honorary member of the Tehran-led “resistance front,” having ensured long years of calm and stability along the front in the Golan Heights, occupied since 1967.

Against this backdrop, Israel heads into its general elections with several questions looming, including whether Benjamin Netanyahu will have a political future after the vote. The question is particularly pressing given that the man who has served as prime minister for so many years is already on trial for corruption, proceedings whose consequences could weigh even more heavily on his future if he loses power.

Regardless of the political future of “Bibi,” who is finding it difficult to secure support among Israeli politicians outside his own camp, the elections scheduled for the coming days will be unprecedented. The Israeli vote on October 27, 2026, can be regarded as an election of a different kind, given the profound transformation of Israeli society as a whole. That society now places border security at the very top of its priorities. These are the elections of the post-“Al-Aqsa Flood” era and its aftermath.

Border security has become Israel’s overriding priority, with or without Netanyahu. Gadi Eisenkot, who could become the next prime minister, will be no less hardline than “Bibi.” The same applies to Naftali Bennett, who has previously served as prime minister.

The pursuit of secure borders, with all that this entails in terms of entrenching the occupation in Syria and Lebanon and expanding settlements in the West Bank, has replaced the search for a political settlement. There is no longer an Israeli political project capable of producing a reasonable and acceptable peace in the region. Several factors have contributed to the present situation. It is no longer possible to ignore the fact that the “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack launched by Hamas on October 7, 2023, destroyed, at least for the foreseeable future, any hope of domestic change in Israel.

The “Al-Aqsa Flood” marked the culmination of an investment in violence in which all the forces working to perpetuate a state of neither war nor peace in the Middle East converged. These forces operated under a single banner: extremism, violence, and terrorism. There was a front opposed to peace that succeeded in driving the region toward the “Al-Aqsa Flood” and bringing about a radical transformation of Israel, a transformation that unfolded in stages. The Israeli right helped support this front. It is worth recalling, in this regard, that one of the most significant terrorist attacks directed against the Oslo peace process took place in Hebron.

On February 25, 1994, an American-Israeli terrorist named Baruch Goldstein opened fire on worshippers at the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron. He killed 29 Palestinians and wounded 125. The Hebron massacre was followed in the ensuing weeks by a series of suicide bombings carried out by Hamas in Israel. On October 19, 1994, Hamas targeted a passenger bus on Dizengoff Street in Tel Aviv. It carried out several other attacks, all of which served to strengthen extremism within Israeli society. In 2001, for example, it killed teenagers in a bombing at the entrance to a nightclub in Tel Aviv. During that period, Hamas brought terrorism into Israel itself to demonstrate that the Oslo Accords had no future. The Israeli right did not hesitate to support Hamas. It was an extremist from that political camp who assassinated Yitzhak Rabin in November 1995 in order to kill the Oslo process.

Iran has never been far from Hamas. It supported everything that could undermine the peace process and the Palestinian national project, culminating in Hamas’s takeover of Gaza in mid-2007.

The “Al-Aqsa Flood” crowned the victory of the Israeli right led by Benjamin Netanyahu. This is reflected in the absence of any concrete prospect of establishing a Palestinian state in the discourse of the leading parties competing to head the government. Moreover, no change appears on the horizon in Israel, whether “Bibi” remains prime minister or not. None of the main Israeli political leaders dares say that they are prepared to cooperate with Arab lawmakers expected to enter the Knesset. This includes Mansour Abbas, who leads the United Arab List, which could play a role in determining the majority needed to form a government after the elections. Abbas refuses to submit to the Israeli status quo. He has included a Jewish candidate, Yoav Segalovitz, a former senior police official, on his list to underscore his rejection of the marginalization of the Arab voice in the Knesset. Mansour Abbas could become a “kingmaker” in Israel, as The New York Times put it, helping to remove “Bibi” and bring an alternative leader to the prime minister’s office.

Mansour Abbas’s importance lies in his focus on protecting Arab citizens of Israel and ensuring their security. Arabs account for approximately 20% of the population. He knows better than anyone that Israel’s leading political forces show no desire to achieve peace and that a Palestinian state has become a bogeyman. Opposition to such a state unites the main contenders for power. The so-called “resistance” has succeeded in changing the very nature of Israel. Yet the paradox is that Mansour Abbas, an Arab Israeli, could determine Netanyahu’s fate. It is now only a matter of days before the results emerge from Israel’s first elections of the post-“Al-Aqsa Flood” era, an event that has transformed not only the nature of Israel but the entire region as well…