Southern Syria in the Spotlight

Southern Syria is back in the spotlight, this time from a different perspective: Jordan’s water security, an issue King Abdullah II emphasized with considerable, almost dramatic urgency in a speech delivered a few days ago before the National Assembly, comprising the Senate and the House of Representatives. Without cooperation and coordination between Jordan and Syria across all fields, particularly in combating terrorism, Israel will continue its periodic incursions into southern Syria, in an apparent bid to establish control over the region and its surroundings, with particular attention to the Yarmouk River basin and its water resources.

It was only natural that Abdullah II, in the Speech from the Throne opening the National Assembly’s third ordinary session, should focus on the massacre targeting mourners attending a funeral inside a church in the village of Hammoud, in Karak Governorate. The Jordanian monarch did not hesitate to declare that "we owe a debt to the martyrs of Karak." It was equally natural for him to reiterate that "there can be no security or stability in our region without fulfilling the Palestinian people’s right to their land." These remarks followed the particularly forceful address Abdullah II delivered before the United Nations General Assembly last September, when he sharply condemned Israel and its actions in the West Bank and Gaza.

The Jordanian monarch did not directly address the situation in southern Syria. Nevertheless, the airstrikes carried out by Jordanian aircraft against a specific target near Daraa made it clear that the region had become a source of concern for Jordan. This concern stems from terrorism, which has taken root in southern Syria and established permanent bases there, as well as from the presence of extremist elements affiliated with the Islamic State (ISIS). Southern Syria is no longer merely a source of arms and drug smuggling. The situation has grown more complicated in light of two developments directly affecting Jordan. The first involves connections between extremists on both sides of the border, as illustrated by the massacre at the Karak church. The second concerns water security, which has long been, and remains, one of the kingdom’s foremost priorities in a country suffering from severe water scarcity.

What stood out in Abdullah II’s latest speech, beyond his renewed warnings about Israeli actions, was his emphasis on Jordan’s water security. After declaring that "we are moving forward today along the path of economic modernization, and work has begun on several major, ambitious projects intended to support the national economy, strengthen its resilience, and build on Jordan’s pivotal role in the region," the monarch suddenly raised his voice and exclaimed, "Water, water, water!" He continued: "Our water security is a national priority. We will not allow the thirst of Jordanians to be held hostage to any circumstance. There can be no compromise or accommodation on this matter. I therefore direct the government to continue implementing water security projects and to develop proactive plans to protect the nation’s resources, ensuring their sustainability and safeguarding the rights of future generations."

According to experts on Jordanian affairs, this was a reference to the Yarmouk basin, which is of considerable importance to Syria, Jordan, and Israel, the latter constantly seeking new sources of water. Abdullah II was signaling that Israeli expansion toward this area had become one of the Hashemite kingdom’s principal concerns, as water security increasingly intersects with terrorism and the smuggling of weapons and drugs into Jordan. These considerations are now likely to prompt Jordan to undertake preemptive military and security measures inside Syria to protect its interests and national security.

There is little doubt that this will create a new reality in southern Syria. In other words, the Jordanian strike against extremist Islamists near Daraa, immediately following the Karak church massacre, will not remain an isolated operation. It forms part of a broader effort to prevent southern Syria from becoming a threat to Jordan’s security, including the kingdom’s water security. It is increasingly clear that the new Syrian authorities must neither underestimate Jordan’s concerns nor disregard the importance of finding long-term solutions. This calls for a fundamental shift in the way Syria’s new administration, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, approaches southern Syria. The starting point must be a rejection of any presence of ISIS or similar organizations in the area, along with an end to the lenient treatment of any form of terrorist ideology that emerged from the Muslim Brotherhood.

Ultimately, Syria’s new administration must abandon the idea of finding ways to coexist with organizations that embrace terrorism, under the pretext of maintaining unity among the groups that succeeded in overthrowing the minority regime of the elder Assad and his son. The administration needs to rise to the occasion, beginning with the realization that complaints about Israeli practices and ambitions will remain mere complaints unless accompanied by concrete action on the ground. Such action must demonstrate that Ahmad al-Sharaa has genuinely changed and now understands what it means to eliminate terrorism in southern Syria, terrorism that targeted the Druze in Sweida and now operates through coordination with extremist elements in Jordan.

Eliminating terrorism, terrorists, and their ideology, together with a proper understanding of the importance of the water security highlighted by Abdullah II, will also help create a different atmosphere in dealing with Israel and its determination to expand its occupation of Syrian territory beyond the Golan Heights...