Yemen: For the “Islamic Republic”, the Worst Possible News

The return of Saudi-Emirati coordination in Yemen would constitute a development of immense regional importance, in addition to being the worst possible news that could reach the ear of the “Islamic Republic.” It is no secret that Iran is prepared to go far in exploiting Yemen, part of which has become, thanks to the Houthis (the Ansar Allah group), a military base affiliated with it in the Arabian Peninsula.

The Houthis’ return to the port of Mokha, threatening navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, along with the attacks against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia launched from Yemeni territory, indicate that confronting the Houthis has become unavoidable. Indeed, they must be reduced to their natural size in northern Yemen. Such a confrontation is in the interest of every Arab state in the region, not Saudi Arabia alone.

In light of the latest developments in Yemen, it was natural for the Saudi-Emirati meeting to take place through the visit to the Kingdom by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Vice President of the United Arab Emirates, at the invitation of Prince Khalid bin Salman, the Saudi Minister of Defense. In Riyadh, Sheikh Mansour met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, signaling a resumption of contacts between the two countries and coordination between them at the highest levels. The states of the region have no other choice but to restore coordination and consider what can be done to protect the Arabian Peninsula.

The danger posed by Yemen, in light of the Houthis’ latest push toward taking control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, has once again brought Saudi Arabia and the UAE together. Quite simply, it has become clear that the Kingdom cannot do without the UAE, nor can the UAE do without Saudi Arabia, particularly when Yemen is concerned… where the role of each country complements that of the other.

The Houthis’ military victories have revealed that the UAE, which in the recent past sacrificed a large number of its military personnel in Yemen, possessed a considerable ability to coordinate the forces opposed to the Houthis. One can even go so far as to say openly that there can be no effective coordination on the ground in Yemen among these forces of differing orientations without the UAE. Since before the Houthis’ takeover of Sanaa around this time in 2014, the UAE had managed to bring together northern and southern forces capable of confronting them. These forces drove the Houthis out of Aden and Mokha, while also helping to prevent the fall of the city of Marib.

What matters now is that the Saudi-Emirati meeting is a promising development, particularly if two important factors are taken into account.

The first lies in the scale of the Houthi offensive against Mokha and the mountains overlooking it, control of which could help the “Ansar Allah group” reach Aden. It is no secret that the Houthis aspire to return to the capital of southern Yemen, from which they were driven by UAE-backed forces in early 2015. In the battles taking place in the mountains of Taiz, particularly the Kahboub mountains, the Houthis are throwing thousands of teenagers into the fighting in an attempt to reach mountainous areas that provide protection for Mokha. These Houthi human waves are reminiscent of those used by the Iranians during their war with Iraq in the 1980s. During that war, which lasted eight years, the “Islamic Republic” used teenagers whom Ayatollah Khomeini had carry a “key to paradise” so that they could be employed in clearing minefields laid by the Iraqi army. There is nothing to indicate any Houthi concern for the human cost of a war being waged so that Iran can control Bab el-Mandeb and use it as a bargaining card in the negotiations underway with the United States.

The second factor lies in the Saudi and Emirati recognition that disagreement over Yemen serves no purpose and benefits Iran alone, for the simple reason that the Houthis, who are nothing more than an Iranian instrument, are always prepared to exploit any form of inter-Arab disagreement in order to expand the territory they control in Yemen… and advance southward, toward the city of Aden in particular.

Once again, it must be stressed that Saudi-Emirati coordination in Yemen can only have positive repercussions for the country, the Gulf region and perhaps even beyond. It is clear that a Saudi-Emirati understanding will help make the southern forces, including those affiliated with the Transitional Council and the “Giants” Brigades, more eager to take part in the fighting instead of standing by as spectators to the battles underway with the Houthis. Such an understanding would also help restructure the forces that were under the command of Tareq Mohammed Abdullah Saleh, which are predominantly northern and had been responsible for protecting Mokha before being forced to withdraw from it.

One extremely important question remains at a time when signs of an alliance between the Houthis and Somalia’s “Al-Shabaab” movement are beginning to emerge. The movement, which is present on the opposite shore of the Red Sea, is not very different from “ISIS.” The question is whether coordination between Saudi Arabia and the UAE will go beyond Yemen, namely to Sudan, where the only solution lies in the departure of the two generals Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), rather than continuing to go around in a closed circle, with all the negative repercussions this has for Sudan itself and its entire regional surroundings…