New Week of Strategic Developments

The death of the strongman of the Iranian regime, Ali Larijani, on Tuesday, March 17, and that of several other high-ranking officials and senior executives of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij, has not reduced the regime's involvement in the conflict, as it has just launched ballistic missiles for the first time outside the Middle East, towards Diego Garcia, 4000 kilometers away, and targeted Dimona, in southern Israel on Saturday evening. In Lebanon, it is on the Southern front that fighting is raging.

The third week of the confrontation between the powerful American and Israeli armies on one side, and the Iranian regime on the other, was as full of twists and turns as the previous ones, and the state in which the Iranian regime now finds itself is more precarious than ever, even if its strike force remains not insignificant.

The regime indeed lost this week, specifically on March 17, its main central figure since the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, in the person of its powerful security chief Ali Larijani, one of the most experienced Iranian political figures, considered the strongman of the regime.

He was killed during an Israeli strike against an apartment in Tehran where he had just arrived, accompanied by his son and other regime officials. A targeted assassination that was followed by that of other officials of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij, the repressive police under the supervision of the Pasdaran.

Larijani's death, who had held the reins of power since the disappearance of the Supreme Leader, raised many questions about the regime's current leadership, especially since Ali Khamenei's successor, who is none other than his son Mojtaba Khamenei, has still not made a public appearance and his fate remains unknown.

Wounded during the same strike that killed his father, many members of his family, and some forty senior regime officials, the new Supreme Leader is reportedly alive, according to a report by American secret services published in international media this week.

The new Leader published a second message on Friday, in which he raised his tone and declared that "the enemy has been defeated."

Militarily, Iran continues to show significant capabilities despite the destruction on its soil, with unprecedented attacks at the end of the week, which constitute a turning point in the war.

Two intermediate-range ballistic missiles were thus launched towards the American-British base of Diego Garcia, on an island in the Indian Ocean more than 4000 kilometers from Iranian soil, and from which fighter jets depart on missions in Iran.

Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir stated that this launch demonstrates the Iranians' ability to threaten European capitals.

The other new military threat that emerged this week involves nuclear facilities: after Israeli-American strikes on the Natanz site in Iran, it was the turn of the city of Dimona in southern Israel, which houses a nuclear facility, to be targeted by Iranian missiles.

The strike, which resulted in over 170 injured (in Dimona and Arad), did not cause an abnormal level of radioactivity in that area, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Do these attacks foreshadow a new phase of the conflict?

Over the past week, the Strait of Hormuz and its closure to oil tankers continued to be a central concern. U.S. President Donald Trump ended the week with a threat to annihilate Iran's energy facilities if the Strait was not opened within 48 hours, which led to new Iranian threats against American facilities in the region.

An Axios report two days earlier had mentioned a potential American plan to occupy the important island of Kharg, crucial for Iranian hydrocarbon exports, in order to pressure for the reopening of the Strait.

This week, the American president blew hot and cold regarding intervention in Iran, sometimes stating, in a declaration on Friday, that he wanted to reduce the intensity of the war because its objectives had been met "weeks in advance," and other times threatening escalation, without being willing to negotiate with the Iranians. Meanwhile, the American army is expected to deploy 2000 new soldiers to the Middle East, according to official Reuters sources.

For his part, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made multiple statements this week, with the central idea being that the Iranians are not willing to negotiate a simple ceasefire, but a definitive end to the war.

The Restructuring of Hezbollah by Iran

Meanwhile, there has been no lull on the South Lebanon front, opened by Hezbollah against Israel, and which is the scene of numerous coordinated attacks between the party's militiamen and the Iranians. After an inflamed night between Tuesday and Wednesday during which the heart of the capital Beirut was targeted without prior warnings, which is a sign of targeted Israeli assassinations, and some sporadic attacks on the southern suburbs now emptied of their inhabitants, it seems that the bulk of the confrontation is now taking place on the ground in South Lebanon, at the border, between fighters from both camps.

The names of the villages of Khiam and Tibé, in Marjayoun, were back in the media all week, as was Naqoura, in the Tyre region, which has just been incorporated into the front.

Throughout the week, Hezbollah communicated extensively about its "attacks" against "enemy soldiers," both within Lebanese territory and in Israeli territory. The party remains silent about its own human losses, even as the Israeli army claims to have killed more than 500 Hezbollah militiamen.

On the other hand, the extent of Israeli advances on Lebanese soil remains unknown. Officially, Israel approved new battle plans for Lebanon at the end of the week.

This week was also marked by the publication of a report, mentioned by Reuters on March 21, on the restructuring of Hezbollah by the Revolutionary Guards since the signing of the ceasefire on November 27, 2024, and the end of the previous conflict, which demonstrates the futility of efforts to disarm the militia.

Indeed, this highly documented report shows how, after the party's debacle during this conflict and the assassination of its historical leader in September 2024, the Iranians invested in restructuring the Shiite formation by secretly sending a hundred military officials to Lebanon.

The Hezbollah fighting today would therefore be radically different from that of recent years. Its troops would be divided into smaller, autonomous groups on the ground, relying much less on communication among themselves.

Dismantling of networks in Kuwait and the UAE

Politically, Hezbollah remains very isolated on the internal scene, just as Iran is on the regional scene. A meeting of the foreign ministers of Arab and Islamic countries in the Saudi capital on Thursday resulted in a strongly worded communiqué on the right to self-defense of the Gulf States, which have been bombed by the Iranians since day one. Lebanon, through its Foreign Minister Joe Raggi, reaffirmed the importance of the Lebanese proposal for direct negotiations with Israel.

This proposal, launched by Lebanese President Joseph Aoun since the opening of this new front on March 2, remains hampered by Israeli refusal on one hand, and Lebanese Shiite parties on the other, despite French efforts this week.

France, which dispatched its Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot to Beirut and then to Tel Aviv, has apparently been unable to make any breakthrough so far.

The official Lebanese position was reiterated by Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam during a widely noted interview with CNN on Thursday, during which he called on the American president to intervene to encourage direct negotiations and end a war in Lebanon that has already resulted in over 1000 civilian deaths.

This week also saw the dismantling of Hezbollah networks in Kuwait and then in the United Arab Emirates, which, according to these countries, were preparing to carry out "terrorist operations" on their soil. The Lebanese position is significant in this regard: despite Hezbollah's denial of any involvement in these two countries, Lebanese authorities, through President Joseph Aoun, condemned these actions, reaffirming official Lebanese support for the two Gulf States.

However, Lebanese statements sound increasingly hollow, even as the war initiative remains in the hands of a militia whose presence has been declared outlawed by the Lebanese government since March 2; but the pro-Iranian party clearly doesn't care. The growing aggressiveness of Hezbollah's statements, including the particularly virulent one from the party's political council vice-president Mahmoud Comati, who threatened "traitors" with retaliation after the war, shows a hardening of the party's line, as well as a widening of divisions among Lebanese. And this, while more than a million South Lebanese are currently being cared for in different Lebanese regions.