Despite Trump's Reprieve, a Widening of The Conflict

The past week, the fourth since the start of the conflict between Israel and the United States on one side, and Iran on the other, has further obscured the path to a potential resolution of the crisis. The true state of the Iranian regime remains an enigma, particularly in light of a mysterious statement by US President Donald Trump at the end of the week, suggesting that “a change of regime may have already effectively taken place,” while the fate of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains unknown.

The American president, through his multiple statements, has contributed to making the landscape even more opaque, even as he continues to play the confidence card and he and his collaborators repeatedly assure that the end of the conflict is a matter of weeks.

Negotiations were a major topic this week: it began with a five-day reprieve granted by Trump to the Iranians after a weekend of threats against their energy infrastructure. The Friday deadline had not yet arrived when an extension of this deadline was announced, until April 6.

In the meantime, a list of 15 American demands addressed to the Iranians was revealed in credible media, mainly comprising conditions on the cessation of Iranian nuclear development and ballistic missile programs, and the end of support for Tehran's proxies in the region, such as Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi Hashed al-Shaabi, or Yemeni Houthis.

The Iranians responded with a list of six points, notably concerning the condition of a prior ceasefire for negotiations and obtaining guarantees for a total cessation of the war.

Despite multiple Iranian denials regarding ongoing talks, efforts by the prospective mediator, Pakistan, and other mediators, such as Egypt, are reported in the media, which would explain the new American reprieve.

Nevertheless, the pace of the war has not decreased. Israeli-American strikes continued forcefully against the Iranian regime's infrastructure: at the end of the week, Israeli planes bombed nuclear sites. On the other hand, the prospect of a US ground military intervention is also becoming clearer, and plans for taking Iranian islands are also being discussed in the media.

Ukrainian experts

A new ally in the war against Iran has joined the efforts: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thus dispatched experts specialized in drone interception to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

For its part, the Iranian side shows no visible signs of weakening in its attacks against the Gulf countries as well as against Israel. Furthermore, the Revolutionary Guards, who seem to occupy an increasingly central place in the regime, took measures this week to completely close the Strait of Hormuz to more sustainably impact the global economy through rising oil prices.

In short, the war seems to be expanding, not only in the intensity of strikes but also geographically. Iraqi territory is more frequently targeted by strikes, and pro-Iranian militias are increasingly active there. The US embassy in Baghdad is regularly targeted and was hit again this weekend.

However, the most dramatic development this week will have been the entry into the war of an Iranian ally, silent until now, the Yemeni Houthis. Late Friday, they announced that if the strikes continued in Iran, they would open their front, even threatening to close another crucial strait, that of Bab el-Mandeb, and to paralyze navigation in the Red Sea, as they already did during the conflict in Gaza and Lebanon in 2024.

Indeed, early Saturday, the first Yemeni missiles were heading towards southern Israel. The intervention of the pro-Iranian Yemeni militia at this precise moment would reinforce the efforts of the Revolutionary Guards to maintain economic pressure, parallel to the tightening noose against the Iranian interior.

Economic repercussions and G7

This Iranian card of the Houthi rebels is being played at a time when the economic repercussions of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are worsening. The price of oil has exceeded 100 dollars, and populations and economic sectors worldwide are already feeling the effects.

This issue was at the center of the G7 Foreign Ministers' meeting in France this week. The official communiqué from this meeting emphasized the need to stop firing on civilians and to work towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Behind the scenes, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was making his first trip abroad since the start of the war on February 28, was questioned by his counterparts about the prospects of the conflict. He himself told journalists that he would urge them to participate in efforts to reopen Hormuz.

The war against the Iranian regime has caused tension in the Western camp in recent days: Europe's refusal to get involved is a source of dissatisfaction for the American president, who hinted, in a statement at the end of the week, that his country might no longer stand by the countries of the Atlantic Alliance after the end of the conflict…

Israeli incursion into South Lebanon from the Golan

Meanwhile, the situation in Lebanon is becoming more complicated day by day. Israeli advances in South Lebanon are becoming clearer, with confirmed reports of an Israeli infiltration of several kilometers into Lebanese territory and the beginning of occupation of several strategic points.

The major new development on Sunday morning in this regard is the infiltration of Israeli soldiers into the South from the Golan, specifically Mount Hermon, a territory occupied by the Israelis in 2024. This military development is clearly aimed at further encircling Hezbollah militants in South Lebanon, as an extension of operations carried out by the Israeli army in regions such as Khiam, Bint Jbeil, or Naqoura.

Meanwhile, this conflict is becoming increasingly bloody in Lebanon, where the civilian death toll exceeded 1100 this week. Hezbollah still does not communicate on its human losses, but the Israeli army speaks of hundreds killed (no fewer than 800), not counting militants captured and taken to Israel. It also reported killed and wounded in its ranks.

A mysterious episode occurred this week in the sky of a region previously spared, that of Kesrouan, north of Beirut. On Tuesday, loud explosions were heard over Jounieh, the district capital, with debris falling on homes without causing casualties. The only certainty is that the missile is Iranian, but from where was it launched and what was its final destination? The most plausible option is that it was destroyed over Kesrouan by an interceptor missile, probably fired from the sea. Among the possible destinations mentioned are the US embassy in Awkar, or Hamate airport, in northern Lebanon, where there is an American presence.

“Congress for the Salvation of Lebanon” in Meerab

The most important political development this week in Lebanon was purely political. The decision taken on Tuesday, March 24, by the Lebanese state to withdraw the accreditation of Iran's ambassador Mohammad Reza Shibani and expel him from the territory, while recalling the head of the Lebanese diplomatic mission in Tehran.

Shibani had been appointed in mid-February and had not yet presented his credentials to the President of the Republic. The decision, announced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs based on consultations with the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister, is due to Iranian interference in Lebanese affairs, which notably led to this new war initiated on March 2 by the pro-Iranian militia, whose military activity was rendered illegal by a government decision taken on March 2.

Unsurprisingly, this decision provoked the ire of the Shiite duo, Amal and Hezbollah, whose ministers did not participate in the last cabinet meeting on Thursday. As of this Sunday, March 29, the ambassador is persona non grata in Lebanon and could even be arrested by any security agent. Will the Iranians and their Lebanese allies choose confrontation by advocating for the maintenance of this “diplomat” in Lebanon? This seems to be the case. But the Shiite parties have proven that despite their prominent position in this matter, they did not wish for the implosion of the government.

On the Iranian side, no explicit reaction, but certain signs to decipher. On Friday, the day after the Lebanese cabinet meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the Parliament Speaker (and head of Amal) Nabih Berry, to “express solidarity with Lebanon against Israeli aggression.” No further details are known about the content of the phone conversation between the two men. On the same day, the Revolutionary Guards published a strange document on their Telegram account, an obituary for six Iranian “diplomats” assassinated by Israel during a raid, four of whom were killed simultaneously in a hotel room in Beirut… The notice presents them dressed in military uniform indicating their rank within the Guards corps!

The other important political development this week was the holding of large political gatherings at the Lebanese Forces headquarters in Meerab, Kesrouan. Many Christian figures from the LF and Kataeb, independents, as well as Sunni and Shiite personalities known for their opposition to Hezbollah, participated.

The main points of the communiqué published at the end of these meetings concerned the demand for the creation of a special tribunal that would be responsible for judging those who dragged Lebanon into the war against the will of the state and the overwhelming majority of Lebanese, as well as the demand for compensation from Iran for the losses suffered during this war.

On the sidelines of this meeting, the LF president declared to the Lebanese online media “Houna Loubnane” that “no budget drawn from the Lebanese Treasury will be disbursed to finance the consequences of this war, both in terms of displaced persons and reconstruction,” due to the fact that those who provoked this new armed conflict, without consulting anyone, must bear the financial repercussions, and not the state which was presented with a fait accompli on this matter.