The First Eight Days of a Conflict That Will Change the Middle East
From the kickoff, on February 28, of the Israeli-American offensive against the Iranian mullahs' regime, marked by the assassination of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic Ali Khamenei, until the flare-up of the South Lebanon front, at dawn on the 1st March, including Iranian strikes on all Arab Gulf countries, the first week of the new Middle East war is undoubtedly historic in more ways than one.
There are years that can be summarized in a few words, and weeks that seem like years. The days from January 28 to March 8, 2026, have been so full of twists and turns that they could be described as a transition from one era to another.
The starting point was the predictable launch of Israeli-American strikes against the Iranian regime, after the failure of negotiations on the nuclear file, the long-range ballistic missile program, and the fate of the regional outposts of the Pasdaran, particularly Lebanese Hezbollah. The rest was a succession of surprises, as if the attack on Iran had opened Pandora's box.
The first surprise came from the precision of the Israeli strikes on Saturday morning, February 28, which led, as would be announced hours later, to the successful assassination of the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Revolution, Ali Khamenei, the true spiritual and political head of that country, along with about forty high-ranking Iranian officials and senior executives, including the Minister of Defense, the head of the Pasdaran, the head of Intelligence, and Khamenei's closest advisor.
To what extent did this first blow, and the initial American-Israeli bombardments on Iranian territory, destabilize that country? In retaliation, the regime surprised everyone by directing its ballistic missiles not only against Israel or American bases in the region, as would have been predictable, but especially towards the Arab Gulf states, hitherto considered symbols of security and stability.
Aggressions against Gulf countries
Daily, since the beginning of this war, the civilian infrastructures of Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and even the Sultanate of Oman, despite being a privileged intermediary in Iranian-American negotiations, have been pounded by missiles from the Revolutionary Guard. For eight days, their airports have been almost closed, and their legendary internal security has been flouted, despite the interception of the vast majority of Iranian missiles and drones launched against their territory.
And even when Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian resolved to « apologize » to these countries for the damage caused, eight days after the outbreak of the conflict, promising them the « suspension » of strikes against them, the firings continued the same day, suggesting either a tactical, purely cosmetic conciliatory stance from the Iranians, or a beginning of the regime's erosion between the hardline wing represented by the Pasdaran, and a supposedly more moderate political authority.
In any case, another sign of the weakening of the Iranian regime has been the delay in designating a successor to Khamenei during the last eight days, knowing that the Revolutionary Guard is seeking to impose the candidacy of the assassinated Leader's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, whose designation is rejected by the Americans. The Israelis, for their part, continue to oppose any election of a new Leader: after striking the meeting place of the Iranian Council of Experts tasked with this mission for the first time, the Israeli army, through its Arabic-speaking spokesperson, Avichay Adraee, once again threatened this council with a new targeting in case of a meeting for the vote, which would be « imminent ».
In any event, this first week of the conflict ended on the night of March 7-8 with a « qualitative » escalation, namely the bombing of four fuel depots on the outskirts of Tehran, which caused massive fires all around the capital.
The opening of the front in Lebanon
The other major surprise was the reopening by Hezbollah of the South Lebanon front. This initiative, suicidal in every sense of the word, came at the express request of the Pasdaran. In what constituted a declaration of war against Israel, the pro-Iranian party thus launched Katyusha rockets against Israeli territory on the night of the 1st to March 2, nearly 48 hours after the start of the American-Israeli offensive and less than two and a half years after the « support war » in Gaza, on October 8, 2023, from which the country has not yet recovered.
Incredulous, the Lebanese once again found themselves mired in a vicious cycle of violence, destructive bombings, and the exodus of residents from entire regions in South Lebanon, the southern suburbs of Beirut, and North Bekaa. Hezbollah, for its part, continues its daily attacks towards northern Israel, employing rockets and drones. It even launched drones against a British base on the peaceful island of Cyprus.
Israeli Merkava tanks on the Lebanese border.
After this new front opened from an exhausted country, undermined by the economic crisis and the consequences of a very recent war, even the fiercest defenders of Hezbollah's « Lebaneseness » (!) had to revise their theories. Because this party, which continued to suffer, without reacting, targeted Israeli assassinations despite the ceasefire of November 27, 2024, only retaliated to the assassination of the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Revolution, which was unanimously perceived as a clear response to an order from the Iranian « sponsor ».
Israeli threats
This decision caught the entire Lebanese political class by surprise, including the ally of the pro-Iranian party, the head of the Amal movement and Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berry. President Joseph Aoun and the government of Nawaf Salam clearly positioned themselves against this unilateral decision by Hezbollah, declaring all its military activities « illegal » and enjoining it to hand over its weapons, as stated in a resolution of the Council of Ministers, dated Monday, March 2.
However, this unprecedented decision by the Lebanese authorities, whose implementation was entrusted to the Lebanese army (previously tasked with disarming the south of the Litani, with the well-known success), did not shield the government from internal criticism or Israeli threats, in the face of the return of Hezbollah fighters to the borders. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Saturday threatened Lebanon with a heavy price to pay if it failed to disarm this party.
In any case, this new conflict seems different from the one that preceded it: the Israeli army occupies even larger areas, it even carried out a helicopter landing in a village in the Bekaa on Saturday, March 7, and the entire region south of the Litani is now evacuated by its inhabitants, as well as the southern suburbs of Beirut. Among the targeted assassinations, several have targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard officials, including in Mount Lebanon and Beirut, regions considered « safe.» The outcome of this new bloody episode is more uncertain than ever.
The Iranian regime has decided to sow chaos, and to once again sacrifice countries like Iraq, and, above all, Lebanon, as well as its relations with neighboring countries, from the Arab Gulf to Azerbaijan and Cyprus. What will the Middle East look like after this explosive episode? Without a doubt, this conflict will play the role of an accelerator of history.