Strategic strikes against Iran, proposal for direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiations

In Iran, the fate of the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in question, and a highly strategic Iranian island has been targeted by US aviation. On the Lebanese front, Israel continues its ground offensive despite some diplomatic breakthroughs in recent days around the idea of direct negotiations with Israel, launched by the Lebanese government; a proposal that remains dependent on the situation on the ground.

For the second consecutive week, the Middle East is living as if in fast forward. The attack on Iran by the Israeli and American armies continues, with intensive bombings reaching, on March 14, the highly strategic Iranian island of Kharg, north of the Persian Gulf. This island houses large oil infrastructures that were intentionally spared by the Americans, while President Donald Trump indicated that military installations had been reduced to nothing. The attack on this island constitutes a fundamental development as it poses a potential threat to Iran's oil exports.

For their part, the Iranians, especially through the voice of the Revolutionary Guards, have sought to demonstrate their dominance over the Strait of Hormuz, through which no less than 20% of the world's oil transits. They declared that they would prevent the passage of any oil tanker belonging to their “enemies,” in this case the United States and Israel and their allies, sparing the ships of countries like India, for example.

The Iranians also threatened to mine the strait, which led to an American response that largely destroyed their naval capabilities. On March 14, Donald Trump called on countries affected by the dangers to their ships to send military vessels to escort oil tankers during their passage through this strait.

What the Iranians will have succeeded in provoking is a global rise in oil prices, particularly detrimental to President Trump, a few months before the mid-term elections in the United States. But their own attacks against the Arab states of the Gulf and American interests in the region, as well as against Israel, have largely decreased in intensity. Could this be an exhaustion of their military capabilities in the face of the scale of the offensive (which, according to their enemies, destroyed a large part of their military production), or a tactical reduction in the use of their missiles and drones to hold on longer, with a visible intention to wear out their enemies and allow the mullahs' regime to survive?

The other question that has preoccupied observers this week is the health of the new Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Rumours about his health intensified during the week, and he progressively appeared, notably in reports from Israeli and American intelligence services cited in official statements, as having been seriously wounded during the strike that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several members of his direct family, by an Israeli strike in Tehran on February 28, 2026, at the launch of the war.

And what reinforced the rumors was the first message addressed to the Iranian nation by Mojtaba Khamenei on March 12, which was read by a presenter and in which the person concerned did not appear. A speech that largely echoes the messages of the very radical head of Iranian security, Ali Larijani. In any event, the wildest rumors circulate about him: he is said to be disfigured and/or to have had both legs amputated, he is said to be in a coma, he is even said to have died, he is said to have been transported to Russia for hospitalization… To be continued.

Meanwhile in Lebanon

The Lebanese front, meanwhile, has known no respite this week, quite the contrary. Coordinated attacks were noted between Hezbollah, whose fighters have largely returned to south of the Litani, and to the borders with Israel (if indeed they ever left) and attacks coming directly from Tehran. The party, whose activity was deemed illegal by the Lebanese government as early as March 2 without any effective action on the ground, even intensified its operations from Wednesday, March 11, launching a hundred rockets in a single attack that day. The big absentee from the conflict remains the Lebanese army.

The other development on the ground is the increasingly marked ground incursion of Israeli soldiers into Lebanese territory. Fighting is taking place with Hezbollah militiamen in more than one sector, particularly around the highly strategic village of Khiam, in South Lebanon, with the possibility of an Israeli ground offensive becoming increasingly clear, notably in view of military reinforcements at the border. The most serious aspect for the Lebanese front is that it could last even beyond the war in Iran, as appeared in Israeli statements this week.

Despite all of Hezbollah's propaganda efforts to justify its entry into the war, the balance of power remains more unequal than ever, as the pro-Iranian party's attacks have so far killed only two Israeli soldiers (according to Israeli army sources), and have caused no population movement in northern Israel. In contrast, in Lebanon, the civilian death toll is spiraling (over 800 already according to the Ministry of Health), and more than 800,000 displaced people have already sought refuge in areas deemed safer. The Lebanese government is trying to contain the movement with varying degrees of success, and international aid is starting to flow, but at a pace that remains limited so far.

In this regard, it is worth noting the visit of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to Beirut this week, to express his “solidarity” with the Lebanese people. His calls for de-escalation are unlikely to be heeded by the belligerents.

On the political level, the proposal for “direct negotiations” with Israel put forward by President Joseph Aoun remains embryonic, although it gained ground at the end of the week. Having faced American and Israeli silence in the first few days, this proposal received the support of French President Emmanuel Macron at the end of the week, and there is already talk of a possibility that such negotiations could be held in the future in Cyprus or Paris. The Quai d’Orsay, however, denied on Saturday having drawn up a peace plan between Lebanon and Israel.

On the Lebanese side, there is already talk of forming the committee that will be in charge of negotiations, with names circulating, such as that of researcher Paul Salem for example. However, an important unknown remains, that of a possible Shiite name, a point that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berry refuses to decide for the moment, especially as he seeks to impose the condition of a ceasefire before the talks. Hezbollah itself, through its Secretary General Naim Kassem, in a speech on Friday, asked the Lebanese government “not to make gratuitous concessions” to Israel. On the Israeli side, the main development is that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has entrusted former minister Ron Dermer with the Lebanese dossier.

Until further notice, however, the final word will depend on the results of developments on the ground.