NATO 3.0: The Awakening of the Ottoman Giant and the Rebalancing of Alliances (1/2)

On July 8, 2026, Ankara became the scene of a strategic turning point for European and transatlantic collective defense. While President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan presiding, the opening of the 48-hour summit at the Beştepe Presidential Complex marked the official launch of what many officials and analysts are already calling “NATO 3.0.” The summit goes beyond diplomatic protocol: it reorients the Alliance’s institutional priorities in response to a range of challenges, including the protracted war in Ukraine, simmering tensions with Iran, the persistent threat of terrorism, and mounting concern over successive waves of migration.

All of this comes at a time when U.S. policy is increasingly centered on the Western Hemisphere rather than Europe and the Middle East. Against this backdrop, Turkey has emerged as a pivotal player capable of mediation, regional protection, and recalibrating European and transatlantic security priorities. This summit could redefine both the means and the objectives of the Alliance.

NATO 3.0: An Opportunity for Turkish Power

The Alliance’s evolution is now understood through three major eras. NATO 1.0 was defined by the Cold War. NATO 2.0 by the post-9/11 interventionist era. Today, NATO 3.0 – a concept popularized by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth – is redefining the priorities. The Alliance is no longer focused solely on the East, on the Ukrainian plains and Russia; it must also incorporate its southern flank. Mark Rutte, the secretary general, has repeatedly stressed that NATO must be able to manage simultaneously a continental threat in the East (Russia) and hybrid instability in the South (terrorism and migration), particularly across the Black Sea, the Middle East, and North Africa. For Erdoğan, this amounts to a diplomatic triumph: having brought his allies to recognize that Europe’s security is decided as much on the Bosporus as it is in Warsaw.

Ankara’s Technological “Showcase”

For Erdoğan, this summit is above all a demonstration of Turkey’s military-industrial strength. The country’s technological advances enhanced its geopolitical weight at the regional and international levels. By including an industrial forum as part of the NATO summit, Erdoğan is showcasing Turkey’s 3,500 defense companies. Turkey is no longer merely seeking to acquire military equipment – such as air defense systems or fifth-generation fighter jets – but is also showcasing its Bayraktar drones, which have proved their effectiveness in Ukraine, along with its armored vehicles and electronic defense systems.

This “showcase” highlights a reality that had been taking shape for two decades: Turkey’s resurgence after a century in the shadows. However, holding the summit in Ankara has drawn sharp criticism from NGOs over the country’s domestic crackdown. More than 200 opposition figures and activists were placed in preventive detention just before the summit, underscoring the high political cost of Turkey’s stability.

Turkey’s Demand for the Lifting of Restrictions

Ankara has made its demands clear ahead of the summit. The first is the lifting of intra-NATO trade restrictions. Several Western countries, including the United States, France, and Germany, maintain de facto embargoes on critical components required for the production of drones and defense systems. These restrictions, imposed after Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 missiles and its operations against Kurdish forces in Syria, are strangling Turkey’s indigenous defense industry. Erdoğan has described these measures as unfair.

Turkey’s industrial giants, such as Baykar, which manufactures attack drones including the Bayraktar, and Turkish Aerospace Industries, which produces fighter jets and attack helicopters, are critically dependent on importing specific Western engines and components. These imports are essential for delivering on their huge order backlogs and, above all, for completing the KAAN, Turkey’s fifth-generation fighter jet.

The Industrial Standoff: SAFE and SAMP/T

Turkey’s second demand concerns the European SAFE program, or Security Action for Europe. Backed by €150 billion, this European Union financial mechanism, created in May 2025, aims to subsidize joint arms procurement and develop Europe’s defense industries by 2030. So far, Turkey has been excluded from the initiative because it does not strictly align with European foreign policy. Erdoğan considers this exclusion discriminatory: “Europe cannot share the burden of defense while excluding NATO’s second-largest army from its defense technology budgets.”

The third and most complex issue concerns the French-Italian SAMP/T missile system (Surface-to-Air Missile Platform/Terrain). This system is Europe’s equivalent of the American Patriot, whose sale to Ankara has been restricted by Washington following Turkey’s purchase of the S-400s. SAMP/T is a highly automated, next-generation mobile medium and long-range air defense and anti-missile system. Turkey wants to acquire the technology to build its own missile defense shield, known as “Steel Dome.” While Paris and Rome have made a strategic shift by opening the door to delivery negotiations, the sticking point remains industrial and technological. Ankara is seeking technology transfers and local co-production rather than merely being granted permission to purchase the system. France and Italy remain cautious, demanding strict guarantees on intellectual property rights and assurances that the system will not interfere with the S-400s.

The Trump-Erdoğan Affinity Amid Congressional Deadlock

The summit is also the stage for the “friendship diplomacy” between Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The U.S. president has made no secret of his admiration for Turkey’s “great leader.” This personal relationship has helped break the deadlock over the F-35 issue. Donald Trump’s imminent announcement that he intends to reinstate Turkey in the F-35 program marks a major geopolitical turning point. Excluded from the program in 2019 following Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 missiles, Ankara is now benefiting from a significant diplomatic thaw, illustrated by a U.S. proposal to sell engines for its KAAN fighter jet under a $700 million contract.

Yet the U.S. Congress continues to maintain a legal ban preventing the delivery of the F-35s – already paid for and stored in the United States – as long as Turkey continue to possess Russian S-400 technology, which is considered a threat to the aircraft’s stealth capabilities. To overcome the deadlock, Washington is exploring the possibility of reselling Turkey’s S-400s to a neutral third party, such as South Korea. This rapprochement is reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East and Europe, drawing fierce opposition from Israel and Greece, which are urging Washington to block the sale.

The Black Sea Chokepoint

Ankara, guardian of the straits. Since 2022, the Black Sea has become a theater of direct military confrontation, disrupting global grain and energy corridors. As host of the NATO summit, Turkey is reaffirming its role as the sovereign guardian of the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits under the 1936 Montreux Convention, using this authority to restrict access for warships from non-Black Sea states. This posture is forcing the Alliance to rethink its naval presence and placing Ankara as the indispensable guardian of a strategic, highly sensitive, and closed maritime basin.

The MCM and collective defense in the Black Sea. Faced with the growing militarization of Crimea and the deployment of Russian coastal missile systems, NATO established a trilateral force – Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria – which has been operational since July 2024: the MCM, or Mine Countermeasures Black Sea Task Group. Its primary mission is to secure the Black Sea against drifting mines and the sabotage of critical maritime infrastructure. Turkey plays a central role within the group, carrying out regular rotations to protect the Alliance’s eastern flank while respecting the Montreux Convention, an essential framework for maintaining balance and avoiding open escalation with Moscow.