Iran-US Negotiations: Tehran Strengthens Its Position... What About Lebanon?

Shifting equations shape the prospects for renewed negotiations between the United States and Iran. No sooner does Washington show flexibility than Tehran returns to intransigence and threats, amid growing anticipation over the outcome of the Qatari initiative.

While US President Donald Trump announces the postponement of military strikes against Iran, insisting nonetheless on maintaining the naval blockade imposed on the country, which he has described as "the greatest in history," and on discussing the nuclear program before lifting the blockade, Iranian officials are setting red lines for the resumption of negotiations unless their demands are met. These include lifting the naval blockade and US sanctions, releasing frozen Iranian assets, obtaining compensation for the damage caused by the war, and securing guarantees that attacks will cease. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi maintains that "economic pressure and sanctions will not succeed in subjugating Tehran or ending the war." He points out that Trump will soon realize he has chosen the wrong path, urging him "to adopt the language of respect and respond to Iranian demands."

Perhaps Tehran feels it is now closer to forcing the United States to "submit" to its terms, in light of the US midterm elections, which have restricted the freedom of action of Trump and his team, as well as the results of the Israeli elections and their consequences, with Gadi Eisenkot being tasked with forming the next government. According to the calculations and assessments of Iranian officials, these international and regional changes should therefore encourage Tehran to seize the opportunity, raise its demands, and convince its own public and its neighbors that it is on the verge of another victory. Major General Ali Abdollahi, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces and commander of operations, has declared that "if the enemy commits an act of folly, our response will extend beyond the region," while threatening that "Iran will certainly destroy Israel."

Regardless of the military and economic balance of power, Iran can be credited with reducing the number of reasons officially cited by the United States for waging war against it. Chief among them were overthrowing the current regime and eliminating its missile capabilities, drones, and external proxies, whether in Yemen, Iraq, or Lebanon. The debate has thus been narrowed to the nuclear issue and the level of enrichment, which has risen from zero percent to low but nonzero levels.

While the fate of mediation efforts, whether Qatari, Pakistani, Iraqi, or Russian, remains hostage to a game of brinkmanship at which Iran is highly skilled, any development in negotiations that confines them to the nuclear issue, the US blockade, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would be catastrophic to the point of absurdity for the Gulf states whose security Tehran has violated, on the one hand, and for countries controlled by Iranian proxies, on the other.

If mediation efforts lead to negotiations that do not address Iran's expansionist project, whether through its constant threats against its neighbors or through its seizure of the sovereignty of Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, the ticking time bomb will remain ready to explode whenever the requirements of that project dictate, regardless of any other considerations, under the pretext of "legitimate self-defense" or the banner of "exporting the Islamic Revolution."

This is precisely what Iran seeks, and it will grow stronger if the United States decides, for one reason or another, to end its war. But what about Lebanon? The price it will pay will undoubtedly be enormous if it remains a battleground, as it is today. Opportunities to curb illegal weapons and the "calculated" breakdown of security will not remain available indefinitely. This breakdown extends as far as the killing of former Iraqi lawmaker Ahmad al-Alwani, alongside the explosives case and the arrest of Hezbollah members in the Batroun highlands.

And the list of violations of sovereignty keeps growing at the hands of a faction that openly declares its allegiance to the wali al-faqih, justifies corruption as long as it serves that allegiance... and provides Israel with every pretext it knows so well how to exploit to destroy Lebanon...