Between Trump, Putin, Xi and Iran: A New Geopolitics Emerges (2/2)

Amid a full-blown trade tariff war and commercial restrictions between Beijing and Washington, along with their confrontations over Taiwan and the South China Sea, Trump and Xi Jinping held their first meeting on October 30, 2025, at Busan airport in South Korea, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum summit. This meeting, made necessary by the urgent economic problems facing both countries, resulted in the conclusion of a one-year trade ceasefire between the two parties.

The ceasefire involved an immediate reduction in US tariffs on Chinese goods, which had exceeded 100% in some cases. These tariffs were cut to an average of 47%. Additionally, President Trump suspended the blacklisting of subsidiaries in which 50% or more of shares belonged to sanctioned Chinese groups. He also pledged to lift restrictions on exports to China of microchips related to Artificial Intelligence.

In return, China committed to intensifying efforts to combat trafficking to America of raw materials used to manufacture narcotics. It also suspended its drastic restrictions on exports of rare earth metals essential to American technological and defense industries, with 90% of US supplies of these metals coming from China.

Furthermore, Xi committed to resuming massive purchases of American soybeans at a rate of $11 billion per year and to buying Boeing aircraft without specifying the number. Finally, the two countries froze reciprocal port taxes on their merchant ships and promised to discuss heavier structural issues at a later date. This indicates a need for cooperation and the beginning of a new geopolitical era with global repercussions. Evidence of this is Putin's visit to Beijing, following Trump's.

Trump-Xi Meeting of May 14-15, 2026

The historical significance of this meeting was downplayed by the media, which attempted to demonstrate that little progress was made and which especially highlighted Xi Jinping's insistence on reuniting Taiwan with China. In reality, this summit consolidated, expanded, and extended the fragile trade ceasefire signed in Busan seven months earlier, and it will be followed by other summits.

In his speech, Xi affirmed his desire for a strategic understanding with the United States, based on "peaceful coexistence and mutually beneficial cooperation." He noted that Sino-American relations concern the well-being of over 1.7 billion people in the two countries and have an impact on the interests of over 8 billion inhabitants of the planet. This is entirely new in Chinese political discourse.

Consolidation of the Trade Ceasefire

President Trump was accompanied to this summit by 17 American business leaders whose combined capital amounts to $15 trillion, equivalent to half of US GDP and three times France's GDP. This sum exceeds the combined GDPs of Japan, Germany, and India.

Among the business leaders accompanying the White House chief were Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and Washington's unofficial ambassador responsible for serving as the natural bridge for trade between the United States and China, Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, and Kelly Ortberg, CEO of Boeing.Apple assembles 80-90% of its iPhones and iMacs in China. Following the summit, it succeeded in protecting this production by keeping bilateral tariffs lowered for a period of three years. Furthermore, Apple has annual revenues in China of $80 billion (20% of its global sales), which it seeks to increase.Tesla,Tesla et ambassadeur officieux de Washington, responsable de la passerelle naturelle pour le commerce entre les Etats-Unis et la Chine, Jensen Huang, patron de Nvidia, et Kelly Ortberg patronne de Boeing. 

Apple assemble en Chine près de 80 à 90% de ses iPhones et iMacs. Suite au sommet, elle a réussi à protéger cette production en gardant les droits de douane bilatéraux abaissés pour une période de trois ans. En outre, Apple a un chiffre d’affaires en Chine de 80 milliards de dollars (20% de ses ventes mondiales), qu’elle cherche à augmenter. 

Tesla,which manufactures electric vehicles and solar energy equipment in China, has successfully strengthened protection for its Shanghai plant against bilateral tariff barriers, given that it produces more than half of the world's {{name}} production.Tesla.

One of the breakthroughs from this summit was the official authorization granted by Trump to {{name}} to sell its H200 artificial intelligence chip (the most sought-after on the market) to major Chinese technology companies. China represented up to 25% of {{name}}'s revenue; this figure has dropped to nearly 11% due to restrictions, which are now being lifted.Nvidia;The big winner of the summit was {{name}}, which signed an agreement to deliver 200 commercial aircraft to Beijing, which is a complete success for its CEO Kelly Ortberg, and provides a financial lifeline to turn the company around.Boeing

estimates that China will need more than 8,500 new commercial aircraft by 2043 and hopes, following this contract, to secure additional orders in the coming years, with the number of aircraft potentially reaching 750.The Taiwan QuestionThe summit froze the status quo on the Taiwan issue. President Trump is clear in his refusal to accept the island's formal independence, which he considers dangerous in all respects. The mega-arms deal with Taipei worth 14 billion dollars is frozen and constitutes a powerful bargaining chip against Beijing. For its part, the Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan's right-wing nationalist opposition party, advocates dialogue with Beijing and maintains its position in favor of a single China. In fact, its chairwoman, Cheng Li-wun, made a historic visit to Beijing from April 7-12. She met Xi Jinping to restore dialogue.Unlike the KMT, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) firmly defends Taiwan's national identity. However, it advocates maintaining the status quo in the face of mainland China's claims to avoid armed conflict. In summary, while Taiwan's political class seeks to preserve its democracy without triggering conflict, Donald Trump approached the issue from a strictly pragmatic angle.The Iran and Strait of Hormuz Crisis

The Iranian nuclear crisis and the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, although these issues were certainly debated in the weeks preceding the Beijing meeting. President Trump stated that Xi had agreed to an absolute ban on Tehran possessing nuclear weapons, while committing to block any delivery of Chinese conventional arms to Iran. The White House chief also claimed that Beijing rejected the principle of maritime tolls imposed by the Islamic Republic in the strait.For its part, China's Foreign Ministry called for a global ceasefire, maintaining diplomatic ambiguity. In return, reports indicate that Beijing quietly pays Tehran transit fees for its oil tankers crossing the Strait, disguised as "environmental charges".

China has every reason to seek the opening of the strait since it imports more than 50% of its oil not only from Iran but also from Gulf countries. Finally, the strategic partnership between Beijing and Tehran, signed in 2021, provided for 400 billion dollars in investments in Iran. Yet to date, these have not exceeded a few billion, suggesting that Xi Jinping has long chosen not to risk displeasing Washington and the Gulf states.

A New Geopolitical Landscape

La crise de l’Iran et du détroit d’Ormuz 

La crise du nucléaire iranien et la paralysie du détroit d’Ormuz demeurent sans solution, bien que ces dossiers aient été certainement débattus dans les semaines qui ont précédé la rencontre de Pékin. Le président Trump a affirmé que Xi avait souscrit à l'interdiction absolue pour Téhéran de posséder l'arme nucléaire, tout en s'engageant à bloquer toute livraison d'armes conventionnelles chinoises à l'Iran. Le chef de la Maison Blanche a également soutenu que Pékin refusait le principe du péage maritime imposé par la République islamique dans le détroit. 

De son côté, le ministère chinois des Affaires étrangères a appelé à un cessez-le-feu global, maintenant le flou diplomatique. En contrepartie, des rapports indiquent que Pékin paie discrètement à Téhéran des droits de transit pour ses pétroliers qui traversent Ormuz, sous couvert de «frais environnementaux». 

La Chine a tout intérêt à obtenir l’ouverture du détroit car elle importe plus de 50% de son pétrole non seulement d’Iran mais aussi des pays du Golfe. Enfin, le partenariat stratégique entre Pékin et Téhéran, signé en 2021, prévoyait des investissements de 400 milliards de dollars en Iran. Or jusqu’à cette date, ils ne dépassent pas quelques milliards, ce qui indique que Xi Jinping, depuis bien longtemps, ne veut pas risquer de mécontenter Washington et les pays du Golfe.

Une nouvelle donne géopolitique

The Beijing summit is part of a process leading toward a new world order that will replace the one that prevailed after World War II. Geopolitics demands it... It is clear that Xi Jinping, Trump, and Putin are prioritizing their domestic interests above all else, which requires normalizing economic and technological ties between their respective countries. Putin has indeed shown signs of openness across the board, particularly toward Trump and Xi Jinping, whom he made a point of visiting after the American president, as well as toward Europe. This does not bode well for Tehran, which risks bearing the brunt of this new geopolitical reality.